FILE PHOTO: A woman stands on a road in the village of
Thu, January 20, 2022
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A group of Russian lawmakers have urged parliament to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognise two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent states.
Here's a look at what such a move might mean for the Ukraine crisis https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-arrives-berlin-ukraine-talks-with-european-allies-2022-01-20, in which Russia has deployed around 100,000 troops https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-military-drills-belarus-create-new-threats-ukraine-2022-01-18 near its neighbour's border in preparation for what the United States says - and Moscow denies - could be an imminent invasion https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/keep-defender-guessing-russias-military-options-ukraine-2022-01-14.
WHAT ARE THE BREAKAWAY REGIONS?
Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - collectively known as the Donbass - broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent "people's republics", so far unrecognised. Since then, Ukraine says about 15,000 people have been killed in fighting. Russia denies being a party to the conflict but has backed the separatists in numerous ways, including through covert military support, financial aid, supplies of COVID-19 vaccine and the issue of more than 600,000 Russian passports to residents. A Ukrainian defence ministry source said Kyiv estimated there were 35,000 separatist fighters and 2,000 Russian regular forces in Donbass, though Russia disputes this.
IF RUSSIA RECOGNISES THEM, WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS?
Russian recognition would kill off the 2014 and 2015 Minsk peace agreements that, although still unimplemented, have until now been seen by Russia, Ukraine and Western governments as the best chance for a solution. The 2015 deal called for self-government for the two regions in accordance with Ukrainian law.
Recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk "statehood" could provide Moscow with a pretext for overt military intervention in support of its allies, in the same way that it has stationed troops in breakaway regions of Georgia (see below). A Russian parliament member and former Donetsk political leader, Alexander Borodai, told Reuters that, in this scenario, the separatists would look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of Donbass now controlled by Ukrainian forces. Western governments have lined up to warn Moscow that any movement of military forces across the Ukrainian border would draw a strong response, including stringent financial sanctions.
HAS RUSSIA RECOGNISED BREAKAWAY STATELETS BEFORE?
Yes - it recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions of Georgia, after fighting a short war with Georgia in 2008. It has provided them with extensive budget support, extended Russian citizenship to their populations and stationed thousands of troops there.
WHAT ARE THE PROS AND CONS FOR MOSCOW?
In the Georgia case, Russia used recognition of the breakaway regions to justify an open-ended military presence in a neighbouring former Soviet republic and indefinitely thwart Georgia's NATO aspirations by denying it full control of its own territory.
Olesya Vartanyan, a South Caucasus specialist at Crisis Group, said there was also a significant downside for Moscow, however, in taking responsibility for two territories unrecognised by even its close allies and with no prospects for economic development. "You don't really know what to do with them but you still have to continue financing them, you have to provide funds and from time to time you have to deal with their internal crises," she said. Russia had also destroyed any possibility of dialogue on foreign policy with Georgia.
That precedent suggests the Kremlin might see more advantage in directly annexing Donbass, as it did with Crimea in 2014, than in recognising it as independent.
WHAT IS THE KREMLIN SAYING?
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has responded cautiously to the idea of Putin recognising Donbass. He said it was a parliamentary initiative that would require a vote, and he could not comment until that process had finished.
(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan, Maria Tsvetkova, Anton Zverev and Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Alex Rich
Ukraine war necessary if Russia recognises breakaway regions - pro-Kremlin MP
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian-backed separatists in east Ukraine would expect Russia's army to fight with them against Ukrainian government forces if Moscow follows through on a parliamentary proposal to recognise their independence, a pro-Kremlin lawmaker said on Thursday.
Alexander Borodai made the comment after 11 lawmakers proposed that parliament ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/might-russia-recognise-independence-breakaway-east-ukraine-regions-2022-01-20 the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Such a move would mark a major escalation by Russia after weeks of mounting tensions around Ukraine. A Russian military buildup and threatening rhetoric have stoked Western fears of a looming invasion, though Moscow denies any such plan.
Borodai, a former Donetsk political leader who is now a member of the Russian parliament, said the separatists would look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the territory they claim that are now held by Ukrainian forces.
"In the event of (the republics) being recognised, a war will become a direct necessity," Borodai told Reuters.
"Russia would have to take on some security responsibilities" and defend the territories, he said, as it did after recognising the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions after a 2008 war between Russia and Georgia.
The separatists took control of a swathe of eastern Ukraine in 2014 in a conflict that continues to simmer and has killed 15,000 people, according to Kyiv. Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular troops in the region, something Moscow denies.
Borodai, a lawmaker for the ruling, pro-Putin United Russia party, served as prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic in east Ukraine at the height of the conflict in 2014. He now leads an organisation of war veterans.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday responded cautiously to the proposal on recognition, saying he could not comment until parliament had voted on it. The lawmakers behind it are from the Communist Party, which casts itself as an opposition force but actually often backs the Kremlin.
Two sources familiar with government discussions of the proposal told Reuters the idea of recognising the regions was being seriously considered.
But a source close to the separatist leadership said the likelihood of such a move was low because it could provoke punitive measures against Russia, potentially entailing serious economic damage.
Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine analyst at Chatham House think-tank in London, said recognition could create a legal pretext for a Russian invasion of Donbass to "protect" it from Ukraine.
She said it would be a "clear step of escalation" requiring a Western response in the form of sanctions against Russia or bolstering NATO forces on the alliance's eastern flank.
(Additional reporting by Anton Zverev and Mark Trevelyan, editing by Tom Balmforth, Mark Trevelyan, William Maclean)
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