SASKATCHEWAN
Excess death researcher defends against Moe's 'misinformation' claimPhil Tank, Saskatoon StarPhoenix
© Picasa University of Toronto professor Tara Moriarty has investigated excess deaths in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the excess deaths in Saskatchewan.
A University of Toronto professor is defending her reputation and her research on excess deaths after Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe suggested it amounts to “the most egregious misinformation.”
Moe made the comments after being asked about a Postmedia story on Saturday that quoted Prof. Tara Moriarty suggesting the actual death toll from COVID-19 is seven times higher than the number of deaths reported, which stood at 975 on Monday.
“That simply is nothing more than misinformation and it should be challenged,” Moe told reporters at a news conference.
Moriarty, who is conducting research into mortality in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, stood by her research in a statement sent to Postmedia after the news conference on Monday.
In her statement, she pointed to the lack of post-mortem testing for COVID-19 in Saskatchewan as one reason why deaths do not accurately reflect the toll from COVID-19.
In Canada, only Quebec and Manitoba conduct post-mortem tests, the only two provinces with a higher COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 people than Saskatchewan, she said.
Far from backing down from her estimate that the death toll from COVID-19 is seven times the number that has been reported, Moriarty said she expects that ratio to increase as death reporting becomes more complete.
Death reporting needs to be 95 per cent complete to fully reflect excess mortality and the last time that threshold was reached was on Feb. 1, 2020, prior to the pandemic, her statement said. When the seven-fold ratio was first calculated on Nov. 28, 2020, death reporting was only 93 per cent complete.
As of Oct. 1, 2021, death reporting was 70 per cent finished, the statement said.
“This means we will likely see large future increases in excess mortality in the province, probably over the next two years,” Moriarty wrote.
The deaths reported to the National Vital Statistics database up to Nov. 28, 2020 are twice the number reported provincially, she noted.
Prior to Omicron on Nov. 15, 2021, test positivity in Saskatchewan was nearly twice that in the rest of Canada, but Saskatchewan has conducted 24 per cent fewer tests than the national average, she added.
“This means that Saskatchewan has almost certainly missed many more cases than the rest of Canada,” Moriarty said. “If people aren’t tested and they die and if you’re missing a lot more cases than the rest of the country, you’re also missing more deaths.”
She also noted that the Saskatchewan deaths reported are two and a half times lower than expected based on the ages of the positive cases. This means COVID-19 deaths are two and a half times under-reported in the province, she said.
Moriarty noted she is the lead author on the peer-reviewed Royal Society of Canada report on excess mortality in the country during the pandemic.
She said all of the information she used to make the seven-fold calculation is available online and the report, including the estimate, has been reviewed by “leading” national and international experts.
“ It would be wise for Premier Moe to check that information and ask advisors to explain it if this is needed before characterizing it as egregious misinformation,” she wrote.
Moriarty offered to help Saskatchewan officials understand her analyses so they can improve “longstanding” issues with reporting deaths in the province.
Moe claimed during the news conference that about 10,000 people die of all causes in Saskatchewan each year. However, Saskatchewan has only passed that threshold once in the last 75 years, with 10,200 deaths in 2020. The five-year average prior to the pandemic was 9,502 deaths.
NDP Opposition Leader Ryan Meili criticized Moe for attacking scientists and suggested he is continuing to try to minimize the impact of the pandemic.
“We know that a lot more people have died of COVID-19 than are counted in the official counts,” Meili said at an online news conference. He also pointed to the lack of post-mortem testing.
ptank@postmedia.com
twitter.com/thinktankSK
A University of Toronto professor is defending her reputation and her research on excess deaths after Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe suggested it amounts to “the most egregious misinformation.”
Moe made the comments after being asked about a Postmedia story on Saturday that quoted Prof. Tara Moriarty suggesting the actual death toll from COVID-19 is seven times higher than the number of deaths reported, which stood at 975 on Monday.
“That simply is nothing more than misinformation and it should be challenged,” Moe told reporters at a news conference.
Moriarty, who is conducting research into mortality in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, stood by her research in a statement sent to Postmedia after the news conference on Monday.
In her statement, she pointed to the lack of post-mortem testing for COVID-19 in Saskatchewan as one reason why deaths do not accurately reflect the toll from COVID-19.
In Canada, only Quebec and Manitoba conduct post-mortem tests, the only two provinces with a higher COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 people than Saskatchewan, she said.
Far from backing down from her estimate that the death toll from COVID-19 is seven times the number that has been reported, Moriarty said she expects that ratio to increase as death reporting becomes more complete.
Death reporting needs to be 95 per cent complete to fully reflect excess mortality and the last time that threshold was reached was on Feb. 1, 2020, prior to the pandemic, her statement said. When the seven-fold ratio was first calculated on Nov. 28, 2020, death reporting was only 93 per cent complete.
As of Oct. 1, 2021, death reporting was 70 per cent finished, the statement said.
“This means we will likely see large future increases in excess mortality in the province, probably over the next two years,” Moriarty wrote.
The deaths reported to the National Vital Statistics database up to Nov. 28, 2020 are twice the number reported provincially, she noted.
Prior to Omicron on Nov. 15, 2021, test positivity in Saskatchewan was nearly twice that in the rest of Canada, but Saskatchewan has conducted 24 per cent fewer tests than the national average, she added.
“This means that Saskatchewan has almost certainly missed many more cases than the rest of Canada,” Moriarty said. “If people aren’t tested and they die and if you’re missing a lot more cases than the rest of the country, you’re also missing more deaths.”
She also noted that the Saskatchewan deaths reported are two and a half times lower than expected based on the ages of the positive cases. This means COVID-19 deaths are two and a half times under-reported in the province, she said.
Moriarty noted she is the lead author on the peer-reviewed Royal Society of Canada report on excess mortality in the country during the pandemic.
She said all of the information she used to make the seven-fold calculation is available online and the report, including the estimate, has been reviewed by “leading” national and international experts.
“ It would be wise for Premier Moe to check that information and ask advisors to explain it if this is needed before characterizing it as egregious misinformation,” she wrote.
Moriarty offered to help Saskatchewan officials understand her analyses so they can improve “longstanding” issues with reporting deaths in the province.
Moe claimed during the news conference that about 10,000 people die of all causes in Saskatchewan each year. However, Saskatchewan has only passed that threshold once in the last 75 years, with 10,200 deaths in 2020. The five-year average prior to the pandemic was 9,502 deaths.
NDP Opposition Leader Ryan Meili criticized Moe for attacking scientists and suggested he is continuing to try to minimize the impact of the pandemic.
“We know that a lot more people have died of COVID-19 than are counted in the official counts,” Meili said at an online news conference. He also pointed to the lack of post-mortem testing.
ptank@postmedia.com
twitter.com/thinktankSK
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