Saturday, January 29, 2022

Poll Shows Majority in US Want Diplomacy, Not War With Russia Over Ukraine

The survey's findings echo the pleas of progressive lawmakers, who assert "there is no military solution" to the crisis involving the world's two foremost nuclear powers.


A Ukrainian man and a girl watch soldiers march past during a welcome ceremony for the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade in Uzhhorod, Ukraine on December 28, 2021.
 (Photo: Serhii Hudak/ Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

BRETT WILKINS
January 28, 2022

A majority of Americans want the Biden administration to work with Russia toward a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis in order to avert a potentially catastrophic war, according to the results of a new poll published Friday.

According to the Data for Progress survey of 1,214 likely U.S. voters, 58% of overall respondents "somewhat" or "strongly" support the Biden administration "striking a deal with Russia to avoid war over Ukraine."

Among Democrats, support for such a move was 71%, while 51% of Independents and 46% of Republicans agreed with the prospective policy.



The poll's findings echo pleas from U.S. progressives, who urge President Joe Biden to pursue a diplomatic solution to the crisis, in which the world's two foremost nuclear powers are involved.

"There is no military solution," Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) asserted Wednesday.

The new poll comes as U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a Friday press conference that conflict with Russia "is not inevitable" and that there was still time for a positive diplomatic outcome.

Common Dreams reported Friday that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that there will be no war if the United States does not escalate the conflict.

"If it depends on Russia, then there will be no war," he stated. "We don't want wars. But we also won't allow our interests to be rudely trampled, to be ignored."

Citing security concerns—including decades of U.S. provocation such as expanding NATO—Russia has reportedly amassed around 100,000 troops near the border of eastern Ukraine, where pro-Moscow separatists have been fighting the Western-backed Ukrainian government since 2014.

Russia is seeking a guarantee that Ukraine will not be admitted into the NATO alliance, which Moscow views as inherently anti-Russian. The U.S. refuses to provide such a guarantee.

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that any Russian invasion of Ukraine would be "met with a severe and united response" from NATO. While the Biden administration has suggested that such a response would be primarily economic in nature, the Pentagon announced earlier this week that 8,500 U.S. troops were being placed on alert, ready to quickly deploy to Eastern Europe in the event NATO activates a rapid reaction force.

According to a Kremlin official quoted by Reuters, Russian President Vladmir Putin spoke by phone with French President Emmanuel Macron Friday, telling him that "he wanted to continue dialogue and that we needed to work towards the implementation of the Minsk accords," a reference to the quadrilateral talks between France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine on the war in eastern Ukraine.

"He said he didn't want an escalation," the Russian official said of Putin, but added that the U.S. and NATO have still failed to address Moscow's primary security concerns.

On Thursday, Biden spoke with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his Ukrainian counterpart, and "reaffirmed the readiness of the United States along with its allies and partners to respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine," according to a White House readout of the conversation.

Ukraine Crisis Demands Diplomacy and De-escalation, Not More Weaponry

Diplomacy and de-escalation remain the most urgent priorities. 

We can't risk putting out the fire with gasoline.

A soldier holds his machine gun position on the front line near the village of Spartak, located southeast of the line of demarcation and recently shelled by the Ukrainian troops. 
Valentin Sprinchak/TASS (Photo by Valentin Sprinchak\TASS via Getty Images)

KEVIN MARTIN
January 28, 2022

Global crises abound—escalating war in Yemen, potential famine in Afghanistan, rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and uncertain prospects for a U.S. return to the Iran anti-nuclear deal. All of these challenges require skillful diplomacy, and that urgently applies to the situation in Ukraine.

Approving a half billion dollars in emergency appropriations for military weapons while failing to pass vital and needed funding for U.S. communities, as in the Build Back Better bill, would be shameful.

As PresidentJoe Biden has ordered 8,500 U.S. troops in the region to be on high alert, Congress may rush through, as soon as next week, a massive defense package including a staggering $500 million grant for new weapons for Ukraine, which would make it the third-largest recipient of military aid. Congress is planning on rushing this bill through without committee “markup” and it could be voted on soon.

Throwing a half-billion dollars in military aid at Ukraine will not resolve the conflict—on the contrary, it could escalate it. As one congressional aide put it, "This is how the space for nonmilitary options gets slowly closed off in Washington." The bill also piles sanctions on Russia without fully examining how those sanctions might impact innocent Russian civilians. At the same time, the bill represents yet another half-billion dollars gift to weapons manufacturers that could instead be spent on threats here at home like the pandemic and climate change.

Diplomacy and de-escalation are the urgent priorities; we can't risk putting out the fire with gasoline. While seemingly no one wants war, mis-calculations could lead to catastrophe between nuclear-armed behemoths.

Nobody should oversimplify the current situation. Russia-Ukraine relations and history, as well as post-Cold War triumphalism by the U.S. and NATO toward Russia, have contributed to the crisis. But diplomacy, via the Minsk II process or other means, needs to be the only solution on the table, not militaristic threats or increased weapons transfers. The Minsk II agreement would, if implemented, demilitarize the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine and guarantee meaningful political autonomy to the region while retaining Ukrainian sovereignty over the area and its borders.

It is time to escalate diplomacy, not military aid. Congress and the administration should heed the call issued last summer by over 100 former U.S. officials and leading area experts who called for diplomacy-first approach instead of a "foreign policy arsenal reduced mainly to reactions, sanctions, public shaming and congressional resolutions." This approach would "address the deeper sources of mistrust and hostility" as the means to deter the current aggressive Russian military stance.

I had the honor to represent Peace Action on a citizen peacemaker delegation to Russia in 1997, and while I don't claim to be a Russia expert, it certainly gave me a sense of Russia's history and culture. I loved the people, art, architecture, music, ballet, language and food, and I also met some wonderful Ukrainians while I was there. As the musician Sting wrote poignantly at the height of the Cold War in the early '80s, anyone could see the Russians "love their children, too," as do Ukrainians, Americans, and all peoples.

Members of Congress should remember that and vote against H.R. 6470, the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act of 2022 (in the House of Representatives) and S. 3488 (Senate version) next week. Approving a half billion dollars in emergency appropriations for military weapons while failing to pass vital and needed funding for U.S. communities, as in the Build Back Better bill, would be shameful.


KEVIN MARTIN is President of Peace Action and Peace Action Education Fund, the country’s largest peace and disarmament organization with approximately 200,000 supporters nationwide.

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