Via AP news wire
Tue, January 11, 2022,
EU Davos Forum Global Risks (Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)
Cybersecurity and space are emerging risks to the global economy, adding to existing challenges posed by climate change and the coronavirus pandemic, the World Economic Forum said in a report Tuesday.
The Global Risks Report is usually released ahead of the annual elite winter gathering of CEOs and world leaders in the Swiss ski resort of Davos but the event has been postponed for a second year in a row because of COVID-19. The World Economic Forum still plans some virtual sessions next week.
Here's a rundown of the report, which is based on a survey of about 1,000 experts and leaders:
WORLD OUTLOOK
As 2022 begins, the pandemic and its economic and societal impact still pose a “critical threat” to the world, the report said. Big differences between rich and poor nations’ access to vaccines mean their economies are recovering at uneven rates, which could widen social divisions and heighten geopolitical tensions.
By 2024, the global economy is forecast to be 2.3% smaller than it would have been without the pandemic. But that masks the different rates of growth between developing nations, whose economies are forecast to be 5.5% smaller than before the pandemic, and rich countries, which are expected to expand 0.9%.
DIGITAL DANGERS
The pandemic forced a huge shift — requiring many people to work or attend class from home and giving rise to an exploding number of online platforms and devices to aid a transformation that has dramatically increased security risks, the report said.
“We're at the point now where cyberthreats are growing faster than our ability to effectively prevent and manage them," said Carolina Klint, a risk management leader at Marsh, whose parent company Marsh McLennan co-authored the report with Zurich Insurance Group.
Cyberattacks are becoming more aggressive and widespread, as criminals use tougher tactics to go after more vulnerable targets, the report said. Malware and ransomware attacks have boomed, while the rise of cryptocurrencies makes it easy for online criminals to hide payments they have collected.
While those responding to the survey cited cybersecurity threats as a short- and medium-term risk, Klint said the report's authors were concerned that the issue wasn't ranked higher, suggesting it's a “blind spot” for companies and governments.
SPACE RACE
Space is the final frontier — for risk.
Falling costs for launch technology has led to a new space race between companies and governments. Last year, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos' space tourism venture Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic's Richard Branson took off, while Elon Musk's Space X business made big gains in launching astronauts and satellites.
Meanwhile, a host of countries are beefing up their space programs as they chase geopolitical and military power or scientific and commercial gains, the report said.
But all these programs raise the risk of frictions in orbit.
“Increased exploitation of these orbits carries the risk of congestion, an increase in debris and the possibility of collisions in a realm with few governance structures to mitigate new threats," the report said.
Space exploitation is one of the areas that respondents thought had among the least amount of international collaboration to deal with the challenges.
CLIMATE CRISIS
The environment remains the biggest long-term worry.
The planet's health over the next decade is the dominant concern, according to survey respondents, who cited failure to act on climate change, extreme weather, and loss of biodiversity as the top three risks.
The report noted that different countries are taking different approaches, with some moving faster to adopt a zero-carbon model than others. Both approaches come with downsides. While moving slowly could radicalize more people who think the government isn't acting urgently, a faster shift away from carbon intense industries could spark economic turmoil and throw millions out of work.
“Adopting hasty environmental policies could also have unintended consequences for nature," the report added. “There are still many unknown risks from deploying untested biotechnical and geoengineering technologies."
Climate failure and social inequality top global risks for 2022
LaToya Harding
·Business Reporter
Tue, January 11, 2022
In a media briefing in Switzerland on Tuesday, risk experts warned that failure to act on climate change could shrink global GDP by one-sixth, adding that the commitments taken at COP26 in November are still not enough to achieve the 1.5 C goal.
Environmental issue dominate the long-term global risks. Photo: World Economic Forum
COVID-19 and its economic and societal consequences also continue to pose a critical threat to the world. Vaccine inequality and an uneven economic recovery risk compounding social fractures and geopolitical tensions, the report said.
In the poorest 52 countries, home to 20% of the world’s population, only 6% had been vaccinated at the time of publication. By 2024, developing economies (excluding China) will have fallen 5.5% below their pre-pandemic expected GDP growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed it by 0.9%, widening the global income gap.
Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the WEF, said: “Health and economic disruptions are compounding social cleavages. This is creating tensions at a time when collaboration within societies and among the international community will be fundamental to ensure a more even and rapid global recovery.
“Global leaders must come together and adopt a coordinated multi-stakeholder approach to tackle unrelenting global challenges and build resilience ahead of the next crisis.”
Read more: UK must mandate top firms to plan for net zero, warns WWF
The report further revealed the top short-term global concerns include heightened cyber threats, which are now growing faster than the ability to eradicate them permanently, societal divides, livelihood crises, and mental health deterioration.
A growing dependency on digital systems, intensified by the pandemic, has also altered societies.
“Over the last 18 months, industries have undergone rapid digitalisation, workers have shifted to remote working where possible, and platforms and devices facilitating this change have proliferated,” the WEF said.
"At the same time, cybersecurity threats are growing. In 2020 alone, malware and ransomware attacks increased by 358% and 435% respectively."
Other challenges the data highlighted were higher barriers to international mobility and crowding and competition in space.
Read more: WTO director-general says trade critical in solving pandemic and climate change
Most experts said they believe a global economic recovery will be volatile and uneven over the next three years, with just one in 10 believing the global recovery will accelerate.
The global risks report 2022 comes ahead of the Davos Agenda this month, which will mobilise heads of state and government, business leaders, international organisations and civil society to share their outlook, insights and plans relating to the most urgent global issues.
The meeting will provide a platform for connection, enabling the public to watch and interact through live streamed sessions, social media polling and virtual connections.
LaToya Harding
·Business Reporter
Tue, January 11, 2022
In a media briefing in Switzerland on Tuesday, risk experts warned that failure to act on climate change could shrink global GDP by one-sixth, adding that the commitments taken at COP26 in November are still not enough to achieve the 1.5 C goal.
Photo: Denis Balibouse/Reuters
The ongoing climate crisis and social inequality are the top global risks for this year, a new report has revealed.
According to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) latest global risks report, climate risks dominate the short-term concerns, as the world enters the third year of the pandemic, and also remains the biggest long-term threat facing humanity.
This includes climate action failure, extreme weather risks, biodiversity loss, natural resource crises, and human environmental damage.
The report, which is in its 17th year, is published in partnership with Marsh McLennan, Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW) and SK Group, and ranks the biggest risks facing the world as judged by global risk experts and decision makers.
Read more: WEF predicts three more years of volatility and uneven recovery
In a media briefing in Switzerland on Tuesday, risk experts warned that failure to act on climate change could shrink global GDP by one-sixth, adding that the commitments taken at COP26 in November are still not enough to achieve the 1.5C goal.
The ongoing climate crisis and social inequality are the top global risks for this year, a new report has revealed.
According to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) latest global risks report, climate risks dominate the short-term concerns, as the world enters the third year of the pandemic, and also remains the biggest long-term threat facing humanity.
This includes climate action failure, extreme weather risks, biodiversity loss, natural resource crises, and human environmental damage.
The report, which is in its 17th year, is published in partnership with Marsh McLennan, Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW) and SK Group, and ranks the biggest risks facing the world as judged by global risk experts and decision makers.
Read more: WEF predicts three more years of volatility and uneven recovery
In a media briefing in Switzerland on Tuesday, risk experts warned that failure to act on climate change could shrink global GDP by one-sixth, adding that the commitments taken at COP26 in November are still not enough to achieve the 1.5C goal.
Environmental issue dominate the long-term global risks. Photo: World Economic Forum
COVID-19 and its economic and societal consequences also continue to pose a critical threat to the world. Vaccine inequality and an uneven economic recovery risk compounding social fractures and geopolitical tensions, the report said.
In the poorest 52 countries, home to 20% of the world’s population, only 6% had been vaccinated at the time of publication. By 2024, developing economies (excluding China) will have fallen 5.5% below their pre-pandemic expected GDP growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed it by 0.9%, widening the global income gap.
Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the WEF, said: “Health and economic disruptions are compounding social cleavages. This is creating tensions at a time when collaboration within societies and among the international community will be fundamental to ensure a more even and rapid global recovery.
“Global leaders must come together and adopt a coordinated multi-stakeholder approach to tackle unrelenting global challenges and build resilience ahead of the next crisis.”
Read more: UK must mandate top firms to plan for net zero, warns WWF
The report further revealed the top short-term global concerns include heightened cyber threats, which are now growing faster than the ability to eradicate them permanently, societal divides, livelihood crises, and mental health deterioration.
A growing dependency on digital systems, intensified by the pandemic, has also altered societies.
“Over the last 18 months, industries have undergone rapid digitalisation, workers have shifted to remote working where possible, and platforms and devices facilitating this change have proliferated,” the WEF said.
"At the same time, cybersecurity threats are growing. In 2020 alone, malware and ransomware attacks increased by 358% and 435% respectively."
Other challenges the data highlighted were higher barriers to international mobility and crowding and competition in space.
Read more: WTO director-general says trade critical in solving pandemic and climate change
Most experts said they believe a global economic recovery will be volatile and uneven over the next three years, with just one in 10 believing the global recovery will accelerate.
The global risks report 2022 comes ahead of the Davos Agenda this month, which will mobilise heads of state and government, business leaders, international organisations and civil society to share their outlook, insights and plans relating to the most urgent global issues.
The meeting will provide a platform for connection, enabling the public to watch and interact through live streamed sessions, social media polling and virtual connections.
Unequal vaccine access could hamper climate fight: WEF
Nearly 100 countries have yet to vaccinate 40 percent of their populations, the WHO says (AFP/Gagan NAYAR)
Tue, January 11, 2022
Unequal access to Covid-19 vaccines is widening the gap between rich countries and the developing world, threatening the cooperation needed to tackle common challenges such as climate change, the World Economic Forum warned on Tuesday.
In its annual Global Risks Report, the Swiss foundation behind the annual Davos gathering of the rich and powerful warned that vaccine haves and have-nots were increasingly on divergent paths.
"A greater prevalence of Covid-19 in low-vaccination countries than in high-vaccination ones will weigh on worker availability and productivity, disrupt supply chains and weaken consumption," the 17th edition of the report, which surveys global experts, warned.
"Moreover, a lower post-pandemic risk appetite in the vaccinated world -- comprised mostly of advanced economies -- could weaken their investment in the non-vaccinated world," it added.
According to the World Health Organization, 98 countries have yet to vaccinate 40 percent of their population -- a stark contrast with the situation in many Western countries, where vaccination rates hover around the 70-80 percent mark.
Rich countries have been accused of hoarding vaccines, with only a fraction of the billions of doses produced last year winding up in the arms of people in countries with the most fragile health systems.
The WEF warned that the growing gulf between rich and poor countries would create a poisonous legacy of resentment, making it harder to reach agreements on global issues such as climate change, managing migration flows and halting cyberattacks.
The climate crisis displaced the pandemic this year as the biggest risk for the world, accounting for five of the top 10 risks for the world over the next 10 years.
But the report also highlighted the continuing fallout of the pandemic, with developing economies struggling to bounce back from successive lockdowns while rich countries emerge more resilient.
"By 2024, developing economies (excluding China) will have fallen 5.5 percent below their pre-pandemic expected GDP growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed it by 0.9 percent -- widening the global income gap," the survey predicted.
The WEF also emphasised the "societal scarring" caused by the pandemic, including in rich countries.
As protesters around Europe rally against the introduction of vaccine mandates, one of the top threats flagged up in 31 countries, including France and Germany, was the "erosion of social cohesion".
alb/cb/lth/
Nearly 100 countries have yet to vaccinate 40 percent of their populations, the WHO says (AFP/Gagan NAYAR)
Tue, January 11, 2022
Unequal access to Covid-19 vaccines is widening the gap between rich countries and the developing world, threatening the cooperation needed to tackle common challenges such as climate change, the World Economic Forum warned on Tuesday.
In its annual Global Risks Report, the Swiss foundation behind the annual Davos gathering of the rich and powerful warned that vaccine haves and have-nots were increasingly on divergent paths.
"A greater prevalence of Covid-19 in low-vaccination countries than in high-vaccination ones will weigh on worker availability and productivity, disrupt supply chains and weaken consumption," the 17th edition of the report, which surveys global experts, warned.
"Moreover, a lower post-pandemic risk appetite in the vaccinated world -- comprised mostly of advanced economies -- could weaken their investment in the non-vaccinated world," it added.
According to the World Health Organization, 98 countries have yet to vaccinate 40 percent of their population -- a stark contrast with the situation in many Western countries, where vaccination rates hover around the 70-80 percent mark.
Rich countries have been accused of hoarding vaccines, with only a fraction of the billions of doses produced last year winding up in the arms of people in countries with the most fragile health systems.
The WEF warned that the growing gulf between rich and poor countries would create a poisonous legacy of resentment, making it harder to reach agreements on global issues such as climate change, managing migration flows and halting cyberattacks.
The climate crisis displaced the pandemic this year as the biggest risk for the world, accounting for five of the top 10 risks for the world over the next 10 years.
But the report also highlighted the continuing fallout of the pandemic, with developing economies struggling to bounce back from successive lockdowns while rich countries emerge more resilient.
"By 2024, developing economies (excluding China) will have fallen 5.5 percent below their pre-pandemic expected GDP growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed it by 0.9 percent -- widening the global income gap," the survey predicted.
The WEF also emphasised the "societal scarring" caused by the pandemic, including in rich countries.
As protesters around Europe rally against the introduction of vaccine mandates, one of the top threats flagged up in 31 countries, including France and Germany, was the "erosion of social cohesion".
alb/cb/lth/
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