Exclusive-Canadians see danger at home from U.S. political strife – poll

By Steve Scherer

 February 9, 2022

Vehicles clog downtown streets as truckers and supporters continue to protest against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine mandates, in Ottawa

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadians say they are concerned political strife in the United States will undermine security and economic growth at home, according to a new poll, as an anti-vaccine mandate protest praised by former U.S. President Donald Trump gripped the capital and affected the border.

The anxiety captured in the Angus Reid Institute survey provides a backdrop to protests across the country, at the international border, and especially in Ottawa, the capital, where police say Americans have provided a “significant” amount of money and organizational support.

The Ottawa protest, now in its 13th day, has been marred by the appearance of hateful symbols, like the Confederate flag, associated with the aggressive populism embraced by Trump supporters and some protesters say their goal is not only to roll back vaccine mandates, but also to overthrow the government.

“The success or failure of the United States will have a profound impact on Canada,” said Bruce Heyman, former American ambassador to Canada from 2014-2017. “Part of the more extreme nature of our politics over the last few years has now moved to occupy some part of Canada today.”

In the poll, 78% of Canadians said they were worried America’s democratic discord will affect their country’s economy and security. The survey of 1,620 Canadians was conducted between Jan. 27 and Jan. 31, the days in which the Ottawa protest began.

Two-thirds of Canada’s 38 million people live within 100 km (62 miles) of the U.S. border, and the two countries are each other’s top trading partners.

The trade relationship with the United States is of existential importance to Canada, with 75% of all exports going to the southern neighbor. Half of Canada’s imports come from the United States, including 60% of all imported fresh vegetables.

The Jan. 6 anniversary of the storming of Capitol Hill in Washington last year led to a series of articles in Canadian newspapers that sounded an alarm about the resiliency of American democracy in coming years, and in particular after the 2024 election.

Until recently, politics in Canada has been less polarized than in the United States. One example is the adoption of vaccines with nearly 80% of Canadians having had two shots of a COVID-19 vaccine in contrast to 64% in the United States.

However, last week’s ouster of Conservative opposition leader Erin O’Toole in part for failing to embrace the protest suggests the political landscape is shifting.

“Canadians have generally looked to the United States and felt like, ‘Whatever is going on there, it’s not as bad in Canada,'” said Shachi Kurl, Angus Reid president.

“We like to think of ourselves as… a country of circumspection and compromise and friendliness, yet two in five people don’t feel that way anymore,” she said. Some 37% of Canadians say there is no room for political compromise in their country, the poll shows.

Ottawa police said on Tuesday they had worked with Ohio police to track down and arrest a man there for calling in fake threats “designed to deceive and distract our emergency resources,” deputy police chief Steve Bell told reporters.

On Monday, Canada’s federal Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino said the government would be “very vigilant about external forces, about foreign interference”.

‘A WAKE UP CALL’

Trump last weekend spoke out in support of the truckers and called Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a “far-left lunatic”.

According to Angus Reid poll, 68% of Canadians believe U.S. democracy cannot survive another Trump presidency, and 47% said the United States is on its way to becoming an authoritarian state.

“The United States used to be a beacon of democracy, and now it’s exporting right-wing sedition to other democratic countries,” said Roland Paris, Trudeau’s former foreign policy adviser and professor of international affairs at University of Ottawa.

“The worse things get in the United States, the more dangerous it will be for Canada,” Paris said, calling the Ottawa protest a “wake-up call”.

Gerry Butts, Vice Chairman of Eurasia Group and formerly Trudeau’s top advisor, says “Canadians are astute observers of what’s happening in the United States, and they’re rightly anxious about it”.

“In the long term, Canada will be like everyone else… badly damaged if the United States becomes a democracy in name only,” he said.

Tyler Cowen: What happens in Ottawa may not stay in Ottawa

TYLER COWEN
FEB 8, 2022

The nationwide truckers’ protest in Canada, known as the “Freedom Convoy” and centered in Ottawa, reflects so many global trends that it’s hard to say what it means. But the movement may well end up as the most consequential story of the year.

Under one plausible reading, many Canadians are exhausted by their government’s pandemic restrictions. The protests started in January, when laws took effect requiring truckers who crossed the border to be vaccinated. Since then, the protests have grown to reflect a broader Canadian opposition to COVID restrictions.

The Canadian economy, unlike the U.S. economy, saw a big job loss in January, in part because Canada has been more reluctant to liberalize.

This reluctance is puzzling, because it is now safe to lift most COVID restrictions, in the U.S. as well as Canada. In that regard, the Freedom Convoy genuinely stands for some important freedoms. Travel, for example — either domestic or international — is not easy. If you are Canadian and do not wish to be vaccinated against COVID, it can be difficult to lead a normal life.

That is not to say that all their grievances are justified. I am generally skeptical about government mandates, but I am also very pro-vaccine. At this point in the pandemic, for the vast majority of people, getting vaccinated is far and away the best option.

The protests also have a darker side. The protesters have established a serious infrastructure of their own in Ottawa, replete with cranes and tent cities, and control much of the center city. The situation “is absolutely catastrophic both for the rule of law and for the long-term security of Canada,” tweets Canadian journalist Matt Gurney. “Everyone sees this. This is a massive failure of the state.”

So much of Canadian identity is wrapped up in being “nice” that it may be hard for Canadians and their leaders to fathom that they could lose control of their capital city.

As Mr. Gurney says, it is simply assumed that Canada is “rich, stable and peaceful,” a more polite counterpart to its southern neighbor. But Canadians may be in for a rude awakening about how easy it is for the government to temporarily lose control: “I think the danger of a large violent incident in Ottawa is growing fast.”

Obviously, the Canadian police and armed forces have far greater power than the truckers. But when it comes to imaginative fervor, the truckers have the advantage, just as did the forces that stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Who would have thought such a thing could have happened?

At least some parts of the protests reflect White supremacist and extremist ideas. Confederate flags and swastikas have been spotted, though on Twitter there is vociferous disagreement about how representative these signs are.

The debate is not merely over symbols. Using GoFundMe, donors sent C$10 million ($7.8 million) to support the efforts of the truckers. GoFundMe decided not to pass those funds along, claiming the Freedom Convoy had violated its terms of service and promising refunds. Should financial infrastructure companies such as GoFundMe be making such political decisions? While a private company has a legal right to do this, such decisions could end up as de facto restrictions on political speech.

This is all happening in a country that is already chipping away at free speech. Under the guise of regulating “hate speech,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau proposed new restrictions on internet speech last year.

Of course such restrictions would have a chilling effect. So maybe the Freedom Convoy is part of a backlash to the underlying trend of restricted discourse. One way or another, freedom of speech will be asserted.

So far at least, the Freedom Convoy has yet to attract sustained and widespread coverage in the U.S. mainstream media. Maybe Americans just aren’t used to Ottawa being the epicenter of political conflict. But now that it is, we should probably be prepared for other surprises as well.

Tyler Cowen is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.
First Published February 8, 2022