Tuesday, March 01, 2022

A Major UN Climate Change Report Was Just Approved by Nearly 200 Nations

(Roc Canals/Getty Images)
ENVIRONMENT

AFP
27 FEBRUARY 2022

Nearly 200 nations approved a major UN climate change report detailing the accelerating impacts of global warming on Sunday, at the end of a sometimes fraught two-week meeting overshadowed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that debates had concluded over the report's crucial "Summary for Policymakers", a 40-page overview distilling the thousands of pages of scientific research, which has been reviewed line-by-line and will be made public on February 28.

Species extinctionecosystem collapse, mosquito-borne disease, deadly heat, water shortages, and reduced crop yields are already measurably worse due to global heating.

Just in the last year, the world has seen a cascade of unprecedented floods, heatwaves and wildfires across four continents.

All these impacts will accelerate in the coming decades even if the carbon pollution driving climate change is rapidly brought to heel, the report is expected to warn, according to an early draft seen by AFP in 2021.

It will also underscore the urgent need for "adaptation" – a term that refers to preparations for devastating consequences that can no longer be avoided.

In some cases this means that adapting to intolerably hot days, flash flooding and storm surges has become a matter of life and death.

The 2015 Paris deal calls for capping global warming at "well below" 2 °C, and ideally 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).


In August 2021, another IPCC report on the physical science of human-caused climate change found that global heating is virtually certain to pass 1.5 °C, probably within a decade.

Earth's surface has warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius since the 19th century.

"We cannot escape the climate crisis," said Mohamed Adow, the head of think tank Power Shift Africa.

He said the IPCC report would be useful for people to understand "the scale of the suffering we will endure" if humanity does not drastically cut greenhouse gas pollution – as well as adapting to the challenges to come.

"The backbone of climate action is science and the science is clear. It's telling us how dire our situation is. What is lacking is action from governments," he told AFP.

© Agence France-Presse





‘An atlas of human suffering’ - UN report issues stark warning on climate change


By Jonathan Wilson
Published Monday, February 28, 2022


Climate change is causing widespread loss and damage to lives, livelihoods, homes and natural habitats, with ever more severe effects to come, the UN has said.

Already some of the impacts of global warming are irreversible, as nature and humans are pushed to the limits of their ability to adapt to rising temperatures, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said.

In the second part of its report, released today, comprising a global assessment of climate science, the UN body looked at the impacts of, and vulnerabilities to, climate change and adaptation to global warming.

The first part of the report, labelled a “code red for humanity” when it was published in August 2021 ahead of COP26, examined the physical basis of climate change. The third part will set out solutions to the crisis when it is published later this year.

The study is the sixth such assessment the UN body has conducted, with the most recent one being back in 2013/14.

The IPCC has issued a “dire warning” over the grave and mounting threat that global warming poses to physical and mental health, cities and coastal communities, food and water supplies, and wildlife across the world.

Any further delays to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to what is already inevitable climate change would mean humanity will miss the “brief and rapidly closing window” to secure a liveable and sustainable future, the report warns.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the report as “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership,” warning that nearly half of humanity is in the climate danger zone and many ecosystems are at the point of no return.

“With fact upon fact, this report reveals how people and the planet are getting clobbered by climate change,” Guterres said, pointedly referring to what he described as a “criminal” abdication of leadership, and adding “the world’s biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home.” He renewed the call for an end to fossil fuel use and a shift to renewables, as well as scaling-up of investment in efforts to adapt to the changing climate.

The IPCC assessment has been released after its summary was approved line-by-line in a process involving representatives of 195 governments and scientists, which overran by a day as delegates continued to haggle over the text.

The published report looks at the existing and future effects of climate change, efforts and limits to adapt to rising temperatures and vulnerable communities and natural systems.

It finds that climate change caused by humans has led to increasing heat and heatwaves; rising sea levels; floods; wildfires; heatwaves and drought, causing death, food and water scarcity, and migration.

Health impacts have been felt worldwide: people have died and suffered illness from extreme heat; diseases have emerged in new areas; there has been an increase in cholera, and a worsening of mental health, with trauma inflicted by floods, storms and loss of livelihoods.

Global warming has caused substantial damage and increasingly irreversible losses to natural systems, such as mass die-offs of corals and trees and the first climate-driven species extinctions.

Different weather extremes are happening at the same time, causing “cascading” effects that are increasingly hard to manage.

The report also warns of the closeness of irreversible “tipping points,” where melting of ice sheets in Antarctica, the thawing of permanently frozen areas of the Arctic, or the loss of Amazon rainforest become unstoppable.

Some 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion people live in situations where they are highly vulnerable to climate change, the report warns.

The consequences of global warming, which has reached 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels already, are not felt evenly around the world, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa and small island states among the most at risk.

However, people in the UK and Europe also face the negative impact of coastal and inland flooding; heat extremes; damage to habitats; water scarcity and loss of crop production, as well as knock-on effects on food supplies and prices.

There will be “unavoidable increases” in climate hazards in the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, cautions the bleak 35-page summary produced for policymakers.

Letting temperatures climb above that, even temporarily, will lead to additional severe impacts, with the risks increasing more quickly at lower temperatures than previously thought.

Accelerating efforts to adapt to climate change - which are currently patchy and insufficient - is urgently needed.

The report warns there are limits to how much people and nature can cope with, becoming more limited at 1.5°C of warming, and impossible in some regions at 2°C, making curbing emissions to limit temperature rises also crucial.

The report, which comes just over 100 days after world leaders agreed new efforts to limit warming and to deliver finance for adaptation at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, calls for adequate funding to help those most at risk.

Safeguarding nature - including conserving 30-50 per cent of the world’s land, freshwater and sea habitat - will reduce carbon and climate impacts, as well as protecting wildlife and the natural systems people rely on for food and water.

The report sets out what can be done to adapt to rising temperatures, from restoring wetlands and avoiding building in flood plains, to planting more trees in cities for cooling, and nature-friendly farming and more plant-based diets to reduce pressure on land.

The report also warns against “maladaptation” – human efforts to adapt, such as hard sea walls which can cause more problems - and geoengineering schemes that could cause a host of new risks.

Hans-Otto Portner, co-chairman of the team that produced the report, said: “The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet.

“Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.”

IPCC chairman Hoesung Lee said: “This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet.

“It emphasises the urgency of immediate and more ambitious action to address climate risks. Half measures are no longer an option.”

Responding to the IPCC report, Alok Sharma, the COP26 conference president, warned: “We will witness considerable changes in our lifetime and, without ambitious action, millions across the planet could no longer have anywhere to call home.

“Yet there is hope. The ‘Glasgow Climate Pact’, agreed by almost 200 countries at COP26, is built on science and today’s report underscores the urgency with which we must prepare for climate change and address a new reality of loss and damage, especially in the world’s most climate vulnerable communities.

“The next decade is crucial. We have a window of opportunity to cut emissions, adapt to a more dangerous climate and build for a secure and clean future which turns the commitments made at COP26 into transformative action.”

However, Nushrat Chowdhury, Christian Aid’s climate justice adviser, who is based in Bangladesh, sounded a note of caution, saying: “This report is a wake-up call to the world that those on the front lines of this crisis need much greater support if they are going to cope with climate impacts they have not caused.”

She said that the UK, which continues to hold the UN climate talks presidency until November, has a vital role in leading efforts to tackle global warming.

“It is now vital that the UK Government spearhead efforts to mobilise much greater funding to help the climate-vulnerable adapt and to set up a fund to deal with the permanent loss and damage which cannot be adapted to”.

Dr Stephen Cornelius, from WWF, said the drought and searing heat, destruction of habitats, species extinction and stronger storms and massive floods were “not a list of scenes in an apocalyptic film,” but the content of an authoritative scientific report detailing the climate impacts on the planet.

“Our planet is in peril and it’s being pushed to – and sometimes beyond – its limits, with the most vulnerable people and ecosystems suffering the most.

“Nature can be our ally and a crucial buffer, if we choose to restore and protect it,” he said, urging urged world leaders to heed the warnings in the report, to increase sustainable investment and to slash emissions.

While this latest IPCC report does not look at individual countries, it spells out the risks to the European region as a whole, with more heatwaves, coastal flooding and losses to crops.

The UK is already feeling the effects of climate change and the impacts will worsen without action to adapt at home and cut emissions as part of global efforts.

Other studies have shown how the UK is already being adversely affected by climate change in a number of ways, from the increased risk of downpours that cause flooding in British towns, villages and cities – as seen along the River Severn only last week - to heatwaves and record-breaking high temperatures becoming more frequent, long-lasting and intense.

Climate change is even making Britain’s Spring flowers bloom a month earlier, with knock-on effects for birds, insects and whole ecosystems, research has shown.

The IPCC report warns the number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress will increase two to threefold across Europe if temperatures rise by 3°C compared with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Warming will shrink the habitats available for land and marine wildlife and irreversibly change their make-up - a situation that will become increasingly severe above 2°C - while fire-prone areas are projected to expand across Europe.

Substantial agricultural production losses are projected for most European areas over the 21st century, which will not be offset by gains in Northern Europe, and the use of irrigation will be increasingly limited by a lack of water.

The number of people hit by heavy rain and river flooding and the costs of resulting damage could double if temperatures climb to 3°C above pre-industrial levels.

Coastal flood damage is projected to increase at least 10-fold by the end of the 21st century - or even more and earlier if we continue with current levels of effort to adapt and curb emissions.

Sea-level rise represents “an existential threat” for coastal communities and their cultural heritage, particularly in the long term beyond 2100, the IPCC report warns.

Dr Peter Alexander of the University of Edinburgh, lead author of the report’s chapter on Europe, said there are big variations globally in the impacts on food and agriculture, with warmer parts of the world seeing bigger effects.

He warned: “Even where there isn’t direct impact seen to UK agricultural production that’s particularly substantial, we are part of a global food system.

“We import close to half the food we consume within the UK and, if the rest of the world’s agriculture is being impacted by climate change, we’re going to effectively import those impacts to the UK, largely through potentially higher food prices.”

Emma Howard Boyd, chairwoman of the Environment Agency, described the immediate future as “adapt or die”, adding that “To save both lives and livelihoods, we all need to plan, adapt and thrive.”

She called for a review to assess the true cost of climate impacts in the UK and the value of investing public and private money in making the country resilient to rising temperatures.


HUMANITY ON THE BRINK
UN chief calls new climate change report an ‘atlas of human suffering’ — but it’s not all bad news

Carcasses of sheep that died in a severe drought near a pastoralist settlement in Bandarbeyla district in Somalia’s semi-autonomous region of Puntland, on 24 March 2017. The world’s poorest countries will be hit hardest by climate hazards and climate change-driven extreme weather events. (Photo: EPA / Dai Kurokawa)

By Ethan van Diemen
28 Feb 2022 1
In some of the strongest language yet, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in a new report that climate change is a ‘threat to human wellbeing and planetary health and that humanity is on the brink of missing a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all’.

On Monday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published Working Group II’s contribution to their Sixth Assessment Report, titled Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

It was unambiguous in its language, saying: “The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”


The IPCC’s most recent report follows 2021’s Working Group I contribution, which was described by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as being a “code red for humanity”.

Reacting to the release of the report on Monday at a press conference, Guterres, in a speech, described the document as “an atlas of human suffering” and a “damning indictment of failed climate leadership”.


“With fact upon fact, this report reveals how people and the planet are getting clobbered by climate change. Nearly half of humanity is living in the danger zone — now. Many ecosystems are at the point of no return — now. Unchecked carbon pollution is forcing the world’s most vulnerable on a frogmarch to destruction — now. The facts are undeniable. This abdication of leadership is criminal. The world’s biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home,” he said.
(Source: IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report)

Some of the key findings of the report — and the scientific confidence ascribed to them — include:
“Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. Some development and adaptation efforts have reduced vulnerability. Across sectors and regions, the most vulnerable people and systems are observed to be disproportionately affected. The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt (high confidence).
“Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs substantially among and within regions (very high confidence), driven by patterns of intersecting socioeconomic development, unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalisation, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance (high confidence).
“Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans (very high confidence). The level of risk will depend on concurrent near-term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development and adaptation (high confidence). Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all (very high confidence).
“Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and human systems (high confidence). The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming (very high confidence).
“Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. Some responses to climate change result in new impacts and risks (high confidence).
“Progress in adaptation planning and implementation has been observed across all sectors and regions, generating multiple benefits (very high confidence). However, adaptation progress is unevenly distributed with observed adaptation gaps (high confidence).
“There are feasible and effective adaptation options which can reduce risks to people and nature. The feasibility of implementing adaptation options in the near term differs across sectors and regions (very high confidence). Integrated, multi-sectoral solutions that address social inequities, differentiate responses based on climate risk and cut across systems, increase the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation in multiple sectors (high confidence).
“Interactions between changing urban form, exposure and vulnerability can create climate change-induced risks and losses for cities and settlements. However, the global trend of urbanisation also offers a critical opportunity in the near term, to advance climate-resilient development (high confidence).
“Safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems is fundamental to climate-resilient development, in light of the threats climate change poses to them and their roles in adaptation and mitigation (very high confidence).
“It is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems. Past and current development trends (past emissions, development and climate change) have not advanced global climate-resilient development (very high confidence).”

Jeni Miller, executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, an international coalition of health professionals and health civil society organisations said, “Last year’s IPCC report, The Physical Science Basis, clearly confirmed that with ‘rapid and substantial reductions’ we can still limit global warming. Today’s impact report spells out the consequences if we fail to make these changes — and they are severe.

“Every nation will be impacted — indeed we’re already seeing those impacts now, with heatwaves, flooding, superstorms, droughts and more threatening people’s physical and mental health, in rich, poor and middle-income countries around the world — and the poorest and most marginalised of our communities will be hit the hardest. These palpable signs of the climate crisis and the resulting health emergency must serve to spur us towards transforming our food, energy, health, and transportation systems to make them fit for purpose.”
(Source: IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report)

Landry Ninteretse, regional director at 350Africa.org, said: “Fossil fuels continue to drive the climate crisis, leading to widespread devastation in vulnerable regions such as Africa where extreme and frequent weather events are being regularly experienced.

“The IPCC report calls for urgent action to meet mitigation and development goals. This means developed nations need to not only fulfil their promise of drastically reducing their emissions, and also commit finances towards adaptation, but also clean energy transition, technology transfer and mitigation in the Global South.”

Guterres, toward the end of his speech, noted that the report underscores “two core truths”. “First, coal and other fossil fuels are choking humanity.”

In an apparent reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the secretary-general said, “As current events make all too clear, our continued reliance on fossil fuels makes the global economy and energy security vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and crises. Instead of slowing down the decarbonisation of the global economy, now is the time to accelerate the energy transition to a renewable energy future. Fossil fuels are a dead end — for our planet, for humanity, and yes, for economies.”
(Source: IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report)

The second core truth proffered by Guterres provided a glimmer of hope.

“Investments in adaptation work. Adaptation saves lives,” he said.

“As climate impacts worsen — and they will — scaling up investments will be essential for survival. Adaptation and mitigation must be pursued with equal force and urgency… Delay means death. I take inspiration from all those on the frontlines of the climate battle fighting back with solutions. All development banks — multilateral, regional, national — know what needs to be done: work with governments to design pipelines of bankable adaptation projects and help them find the funding, public and private,” Guterres said. 

DM/OBP

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