Economist: Russian-Ukrainian War Will Affect Northern and Eastern Syria

Monday March 7th, 2022 by AL-ETIHAD MEDIA (Pro-opposition website)

The economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian War will be felt all around Syria, according to Etihad Media.

Men sit by a produce stall at a market in the centre of Syria's northern city of Raqa. (Photo by Delil Souleiman / AFP)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine since its beginning on February 24th has affected global economic movement, oil prices, and other basic products worldwide. The regions of northern and eastern Syria will not be isolated from these repercussions, economist Khurshid Alika told Etihad Media. 

According to JP Morgan’s forecasts, oil prices could reach 185 $ at the end of 2022 if Russian supply disruptions continue, with 66% of Russian oil struggling to find buyers. 

In addition, oil prices jump 7% above $118 per barrel due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Saudi Arabia is raising the price of Arab Light Crude to Asia. 

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“This undoubtedly means that the situation in northern and eastern Syria will be directly affected,” said a member of the Kurdish-Syrian Economists Association, referring to recent economic reports that the war in Ukraine could add 3% to global inflation this year, wiping out trillions of global GDP by 2023. 

Affected sectors 

“Humanitarian aid from donors and actors in Syrian affairs will be diverted to Ukraine, and the issues of Syria’s reconstruction and the political solution will be almost entirely halted due to the lack of direct communication between America and Russia, the main actors in the Syrian issue,” Alika told Etihad Media.

“All sectors will be affected to varying degrees,” he said. He noted that “the decline in agricultural production, the dependence on importing wheat in the region instead of exporting it, and the depletion of livestock due to the lack of fodder, will lead to an increase in the import bill as the Syrian currency continues to fall against the foreign exchange currencies.” 

“Global food prices reached a record high in February and jumped by 24.1% on an annual basis, primarily vegetable oils and dairy products,” said Alika, based on FAO statements. 

“The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the world’s most traded food products, averaged 140.7 points in February, compared to 135.4 in January,” he said.

 

This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.