SOTU
Axios-Ipsos poll: Biden gets little credit for COVID recovery

Margaret Talev

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Will Chase/Axios


Americans are abandoning COVID-19 fears and precautions, a sea change in the past few weeks as severe illnesses fell, states dropped mandates and the CDC relaxed guidelines, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

Why it matters: As President Biden gives his State of the Union address tonight, more people feel the worst is behind them — but they aren't giving him credit. That's a devastating miss for a leader who won election on his promises to move the nation beyond the pandemic.

Just 35% of respondents said the Biden administration has done an excellent or good job jumpstarting the economy and supporting American small business.

It's also underwater on communicating clearly with Americans, protecting frontline health workers and supporting workers.

58% said the administration did an excellent or good job on supporting vaccine development and distribution — but that's the only measure where its approval ratings are above 50%.

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

Between the lines: Just 43% of respondents now say they trust Biden to provide them with accurate information about the virus, down from 54% a year ago.

That's still nearly twice as high as the 24% who say they trust former President Trump.
But Biden isn't running against Trump anymore — he's running against his expectations, and, by extension, so are the Democrats on this year's ballot.

By the numbers: Two-thirds of Americans now say they believe the country is moving toward a time when the virus will no longer disrupt daily life.

Just 40% now say returning to their normal pre-coronavirus lives is risky, a 16-point drop from our last survey in early February and the lowest share since July.

Notably, only 55% of Democrats now see a return to normal as risky. That's high compared with 21% of Republicans and 38%, but it represents an important shift given that Democrats have been the most worried about COVID risk throughout our surveys.
64% of overall respondents said they're concerned about the virus or another outbreak, down from 73% and the lowest since June.

Only 32% say they're wearing a mask at all times outside the home; 41% said they're social distancing, down from 51%; 63% said they're visiting friends and family outside the home, up from 50%; and 61% have gone out to eat in the past week, up from 52%.

About one in five said that in the past few weeks, their employers have asked those working remotely to start coming back to the office.

52% said their employers are still requiring masks at work, down from 59% three weeks ago and the lowest share since last summer.

36% said their state or local governments were requiring masking in public places, down from 46% at the start of this month and the lowest since August.

What they're saying: "COVID has really been an incumbency buzzsaw," said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs. "That doesn't mean incumbents won't win. But they're getting inbound from their constituencies."

Biden won the 2020 election on the pandemic, Young said. "So in a relative sense, his central pillar is really fragile."

In Americans' minds, Biden "wasn’t able to resolve the most important thing to them, which was a return to normalcy," Young said. "It happened way after we thought it was going to happen."

The flip side, said Ipsos senior vice president Chris Jackson, is that "there is a lot of data suggesting the American public has very much moved past COVID" and "the worst of the pandemic is seen as being in the rear view mirror."

"The elimination of COVID from the agenda probably reduces some of the pressures Biden is dealing with," Jackson said. "It helps get his base back behind him."

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted Feb. 25-28 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,030 general population adults age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.