By VICTORIA MILKO and JULIE WATSON
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A military truck drives through the water on a flooded toll road following heavy rains in Jakarta, Indonesia, Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021. A United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released on Monday, Feb. 28, 2022, says a staggering 143 million people will be uprooted over the next 30 years by rising seas, searing temperatures and other climate calamities.
(AP Photo/Dita Alangkara, File)
JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — The walls of Saifullah’s home in northern Jakarta are lined like tree rings, marking how high the floodwaters have reached each year — some more than 4 feet from the damp dirt floor.
When the water gets too high, Saifullah, who like many Indonesians only uses one name, sends his family to stay with friends. He guards the house until the water can be drained using a makeshift pump. If the pump stops working, he uses a bucket or just waits until the water recedes.
“It’s a normal thing here,” Saifullah, 73, said. “But this is our home. Where should we go?”
As the world’s most rapidly sinking major city, Jakarta demonstrates how climate change is making more places uninhabitable. With an estimated one-third of the city expected to be submerged in the coming decades – in part because of the rising Java Sea – the Indonesian government is planning to move its capital some 1,240 miles (2,000 kilometers) northeast to the island of Borneo, relocating as many as 1.5 million civil servants.
A staggering 143 million people will likely be uprooted over the next 30 years by rising seas, drought, searing temperatures and other climate catastrophes, according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published Monday by the United Nations.
In Asia, governments are already scrambling to deal with it.
One in three migrants in the world today comes from Asia, which leads the world in the number of people being displaced by extreme weather, largely storms and flooding, according to the report. With rural villages emptying out and megacities like Jakarta at risk, scientists predict migration flows and the need for planned relocations will only grow.
“Under all global warming levels, some regions that are presently densely populated will become unsafe or uninhabitable,” the report said.
By one estimate, as many as 40 million people in South Asia may be forced to move over the next 30 years because of a lack of water, crop failure, storm surges and other disasters.
Rising temperatures are of particular concern, said Stanford University environmental scientist Chris Field, who chaired the U.N. report in previous years.
“There are relatively few places on Earth that are simply too hot to live now,” he said. “But it’s beginning to look like in Asia, there may be more of those in the future and we need to think really hard about the implications of that.”
No nation offers asylum or other legal protections to people displaced specifically because of climate change, though the Biden administration has studied the idea.
People leave their homes for a variety of reasons including violence and poverty, but what’s happening in Bangladesh demonstrates the role climate change also plays, said Amali Tower, who founded the organization Climate Refugees.
Scientists predict as many as 2 million people in the low-lying country may be displaced by rising seas by 2050. Already, more than 2,000 migrants arrive at its capital of Dhaka every day, many fleeing coastal towns.
“You can see the actual movement of people. You can actually see the increasing disasters. It’s tangible,” Tower said.
The migration flows can be slowed if countries like the United States and European nations act now to drop their greenhouse gas emissions to zero, she said. Others say richer countries that produce more emissions should offer humanitarian visas to people from countries that are disproportionally impacted.
Dealing with climate migrants will become a major policy issue for Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America as well over the next few decades, according to the U.N. report. Most people will be moving from rural areas to cities, especially in Asia where two-thirds of the population could be urban in 30 years.
“It’s essentially people migrating from rural areas and then probably squatting in a slum somewhere,” said Abhas Jha, a practice manager with the World Bank’s Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management in South Asia.
The migration doesn’t have to cause a crisis, said Vittoria Zanuso, executive director of the Mayors Migration Council, a global group of city leaders.
In the northern part of Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, for example, officials are building shelters for climate migrants and improving the water supply. They also are working with smaller cities to be designated “climate havens” that welcome migrants, Zanuso said.
The influx of a new work force offers smaller cities an opportunity for economic growth, she said. And it prevents migrants who may be fleeing villages threatened by rising seas from seeking refuge in a city with scarce water supplies and basically “swapping one climate risk for another.”
In coming years, she said helping prepare cities for the influx of migrants will be key: “They are on the frontlines.”
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Watson reported from San Diego. AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein contributed to this report.
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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
UN: Africa, already suffering from warming, will see worse
By WANJOHI KABUKURU
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Stephen Mudoga, 12, the son of a farmer, tries to chase away a swarm of locusts on his farm as he returns home from school, at Elburgon, in Nakuru county, Kenya on March 17, 2021. Africa has contributed relatively little to the planet's greenhouse gas emissions but has suffered some of the heaviest impacts of climate change and the reverberations of human-caused global warming will only get worse, according to a new United Nations report released Feb. 28, 2022. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga, File)
Although Africa has contributed relatively little to the planet’s greenhouse gas emissions, the continent has suffered some of the world’s heaviest impacts of climate change, from famine to flooding.
Yet from its coral reefs to its highest peaks, the reverberations of human-caused global warming will only get worse, according to a new United Nations report
The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted Monday that Saharan flooding, heat and drought will increase, Africa’s rich array of wildlife and plants will decline and glaciers on its most iconic mountains will disappear in coming decades.
On a continent already grappling with high poverty levels and food insecurity, the panel warned that fishermen and farmers will feel the pain of future climate change on their lives and livelihoods.
In Kenya, farmer Safari Mbuvi already is trying to weather his country’s a four-year drought — and watching his crops fail, again and again.
“Since I was young, my father used to get a bounty harvest in this farm, but now, there seems to be a change in climate and the rains are no longer dependable,” he said. “I will not harvest anything, not even a single sack of maize is possible. ... And I am not the only one. Every farmer in this area has lost everything.”
Warming temperatures will weaken Africa’s food production system by leading to water scarcity and shorter growing seasons, the U.N. report said. Yields of olives, sorghum, coffee, tea and livestock production are expected to decline.
“Agricultural productivity growth has been reduced by 34% since 1961 due to climate change more than any other region.” the panel said.
Climate change, along with conflicts, instability and economic crises, has contributed to hunger. Since 2012, the undernourished population in sub-Saharan Africa has increased by 45.6%, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. And in 2020, approximately 98 million people suffered from acute food insecurity and needed humanitarian assistance in Africa, said the Global Report on Food Crises by the World Food Programme.
If the world warms just another degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050, an additional 1.4 million African children will suffer severe stunting from malnutrition that limits growth and cognitive development, the IPCC said.
“The lack of food and under-nutrition are strongly linked with hot climates in the sub-Saharan area and less rainfall in West and Central Africa,” the panel said in a FAQ document. “Climate change can undermine children’s education attainment, thus reducing their chances for well-paid jobs or higher incomes later in life.”
Jean Paul Adam, who heads the climate change division at the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, said, “Africa constitutes 17% of global population but only accounts for less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is the region of the world already being severely impacted of climate change plus having an extremely low adaptive capacity.”
Climate change has a major social injustice component, with the poor hit harder by pollution from the rich, said former Ireland President Mary Robinson, now with The Elders, a Nelson Mandela- founded group of senior statesmen. “All of the injustices are captured by looking at the region of Africa.”
Drought is a problem that hits the continent particularly hard. While only 7% of the world’s disasters were drought related, they caused slightly more than one-third of the disaster deaths, “mostly in Africa,” the IPCC report said.
Droughts have also reduced Africa’s hydropower by about 5% compared to the long-term average, hindering growth, the report said.
“When we look at impacts, it isn’t just that Africa is getting hit with the droughts and cyclones and the sea level rise and the disruption of rainfall patterns,” said Canadian climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for The Nature Conservancy. “It’s that their vulnerability is so much higher than a lot of other places.”
Scientists say it is impossible to untangle Africa’s poverty and harm from climate change.
“Africa gets the short shrift because it’s in some ways more vulnerable to physical impacts, but also because there’s going to be a lot of people living on less than a dollar a day,” said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute.
Monday’s report said sea-surface temperatures are projected to rise, threatening fragile marine ecosystems, including East African coral reefs. The report warns of threats posed to livelihoods of 12.3 million people who depend on fisheries.
The report said global warming also will hit Africa’s famous wildlife and highest mountains.
It predicted glacier ice covers on the Ruwenzori Mountains and Mount Kenya would be gone by 2030 and that Mount Kilimanjaro would lose its around 2040.
By 2100, the report said, climate change is expected to lead to loss of more than half of African bird and mammal species — and a 20% to 25% decline in the productivity of Africa’s lakes and plant species. Increased damage to coral reefs from pollution and climate change is expected to harm fisheries and overall marine biodiversity.
In the coming decades, Africa’s mainland, islands and coastal cities will be exposed to climate change risks that can seriously undermine economic sectors such agriculture, tourism, transportation and energy.
The report predicts reduced frequency of Category 5 cyclones, although it says they are projected to be more intense with high impacts upon landfall.
By 2030, the report projects that 108 to 116 million people in Africa will be exposed to sea-level rise — and that without adaptation measures, 12 major coastal cities will suffer a total of $65 billion to $86.5 billion in damages.
Rapid African urbanization, inadequate infrastructure as well growth of informal settlements will expose more people to climate hazards, the report said.
It noted that sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that has recorded increasing rates of flood mortality since the 1990 — and that millions of people were displaced by weather-related causes in 2018 and 2019.
“A lot of cities are completely unprepared for the scale of the challenges ahead, or even actively making the situation worse,” said Kaisa Kosonen a senior policy advisor at Greenpeace Nordic. “Real action on climate change requires resilient urban development and justice.”
___
Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Although Africa has contributed relatively little to the planet’s greenhouse gas emissions, the continent has suffered some of the world’s heaviest impacts of climate change, from famine to flooding.
Yet from its coral reefs to its highest peaks, the reverberations of human-caused global warming will only get worse, according to a new United Nations report
The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted Monday that Saharan flooding, heat and drought will increase, Africa’s rich array of wildlife and plants will decline and glaciers on its most iconic mountains will disappear in coming decades.
On a continent already grappling with high poverty levels and food insecurity, the panel warned that fishermen and farmers will feel the pain of future climate change on their lives and livelihoods.
In Kenya, farmer Safari Mbuvi already is trying to weather his country’s a four-year drought — and watching his crops fail, again and again.
“Since I was young, my father used to get a bounty harvest in this farm, but now, there seems to be a change in climate and the rains are no longer dependable,” he said. “I will not harvest anything, not even a single sack of maize is possible. ... And I am not the only one. Every farmer in this area has lost everything.”
Warming temperatures will weaken Africa’s food production system by leading to water scarcity and shorter growing seasons, the U.N. report said. Yields of olives, sorghum, coffee, tea and livestock production are expected to decline.
“Agricultural productivity growth has been reduced by 34% since 1961 due to climate change more than any other region.” the panel said.
Climate change, along with conflicts, instability and economic crises, has contributed to hunger. Since 2012, the undernourished population in sub-Saharan Africa has increased by 45.6%, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. And in 2020, approximately 98 million people suffered from acute food insecurity and needed humanitarian assistance in Africa, said the Global Report on Food Crises by the World Food Programme.
If the world warms just another degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050, an additional 1.4 million African children will suffer severe stunting from malnutrition that limits growth and cognitive development, the IPCC said.
“The lack of food and under-nutrition are strongly linked with hot climates in the sub-Saharan area and less rainfall in West and Central Africa,” the panel said in a FAQ document. “Climate change can undermine children’s education attainment, thus reducing their chances for well-paid jobs or higher incomes later in life.”
Jean Paul Adam, who heads the climate change division at the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, said, “Africa constitutes 17% of global population but only accounts for less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is the region of the world already being severely impacted of climate change plus having an extremely low adaptive capacity.”
Climate change has a major social injustice component, with the poor hit harder by pollution from the rich, said former Ireland President Mary Robinson, now with The Elders, a Nelson Mandela- founded group of senior statesmen. “All of the injustices are captured by looking at the region of Africa.”
Drought is a problem that hits the continent particularly hard. While only 7% of the world’s disasters were drought related, they caused slightly more than one-third of the disaster deaths, “mostly in Africa,” the IPCC report said.
Droughts have also reduced Africa’s hydropower by about 5% compared to the long-term average, hindering growth, the report said.
“When we look at impacts, it isn’t just that Africa is getting hit with the droughts and cyclones and the sea level rise and the disruption of rainfall patterns,” said Canadian climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for The Nature Conservancy. “It’s that their vulnerability is so much higher than a lot of other places.”
Scientists say it is impossible to untangle Africa’s poverty and harm from climate change.
“Africa gets the short shrift because it’s in some ways more vulnerable to physical impacts, but also because there’s going to be a lot of people living on less than a dollar a day,” said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute.
Monday’s report said sea-surface temperatures are projected to rise, threatening fragile marine ecosystems, including East African coral reefs. The report warns of threats posed to livelihoods of 12.3 million people who depend on fisheries.
The report said global warming also will hit Africa’s famous wildlife and highest mountains.
It predicted glacier ice covers on the Ruwenzori Mountains and Mount Kenya would be gone by 2030 and that Mount Kilimanjaro would lose its around 2040.
By 2100, the report said, climate change is expected to lead to loss of more than half of African bird and mammal species — and a 20% to 25% decline in the productivity of Africa’s lakes and plant species. Increased damage to coral reefs from pollution and climate change is expected to harm fisheries and overall marine biodiversity.
In the coming decades, Africa’s mainland, islands and coastal cities will be exposed to climate change risks that can seriously undermine economic sectors such agriculture, tourism, transportation and energy.
The report predicts reduced frequency of Category 5 cyclones, although it says they are projected to be more intense with high impacts upon landfall.
By 2030, the report projects that 108 to 116 million people in Africa will be exposed to sea-level rise — and that without adaptation measures, 12 major coastal cities will suffer a total of $65 billion to $86.5 billion in damages.
Rapid African urbanization, inadequate infrastructure as well growth of informal settlements will expose more people to climate hazards, the report said.
It noted that sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that has recorded increasing rates of flood mortality since the 1990 — and that millions of people were displaced by weather-related causes in 2018 and 2019.
“A lot of cities are completely unprepared for the scale of the challenges ahead, or even actively making the situation worse,” said Kaisa Kosonen a senior policy advisor at Greenpeace Nordic. “Real action on climate change requires resilient urban development and justice.”
___
Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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