Saturday, April 30, 2022

Opposition head displaces Ankara, Istanbul mayors as Erdogan's next election rival

Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu has entered the running for the Turkish opposition’s presidential candidate.


Kemal Kilicdaroglu, chair of the Republican People's Party, arrives at his home after a power outage in Ankara, Turkey, on April 21, 2022.
- ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images

Andrew Wilks
April 28, 2022

ISTANBUL — The lights were back on in Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s Ankara home on Thursday after a week without electricity in protest at surging energy prices.

The end of his protest — he had refused to pay his electricity bill since February — coincided with Kilicdaroglu emerging as the most likely candidate to face President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an election scheduled for June 2023.

As leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey's largest opposition party, Kilicdaroglu is the de facto head of the Nation Alliance, a electoral coalition of four opposition parties that formed for the 2018 elections.

In recent months, he has said he would be “honored” to be the alliance’s presidential candidate but refrained from indicating whether he would run.

Speaking on Tuesday, the day after philanthropist Osman Kavala was jailed for life in a case viewed as deeply unjust by many, Kilicdaroglu called on supporters to “join me or get out of my way right now.”

His rousing speech was interpreted by unnamed CHP insiders speaking to local media as a declaration of his candidacy. The Cumhuriyet newspaper, which has ties to the CHP, reported that other opposition party leaders backed the move.

Previously, two other prominent CHP figures had been touted as the likeliest candidates: Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Both won office in the 2019 local elections, replacing incumbents from Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey’s two largest cities.

Since their victories, Yavas and Imamoglu have adopted wide-ranging policies to improve public services and root out corruption and mismanagement.

Before he turned to politics, Kilicdaroglu was a civil servant who rose to head the social insurance agency. He has often been characterized by his bureaucratic background and criticized for not connecting with ordinary voters.

Critics have also pointed to his record since taking over leadership of the CHP in 2010, during which the party has failed to gain more than 26% of the vote in four parliamentary elections.

“It’s only natural that Kilicdaroglu becomes the candidate of the opposition because he’s the president of the largest party in the Nation Alliance. He’s the leader of the main opposition party,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara. “Yes, he has a track record of losing elections against Erdogan but he also has a track record of experience.”

He added, “Because he’s a senior figure, his candidacy cannot easily be contested by other people in his party or even by the other parties in the alliance.”

Kilicdaroglu’s pivotal role in forming the Nation Alliance, which has coalesced into a group promising wide-ranging reforms and a return to Turkey’s parliamentary system, is also seen as an achievement that now presents a united front to Erdogan.

He was also instrumental in helping the newly formed Iyi Party, now the second largest party in the alliance, to compete in the 2018 election by lending 15 CHP deputies shortly after the party was formed in a break from the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). The MHP is allied to the AKP as the People’s Alliance.

A year earlier, Kilicdaroglu embraced a new form of Turkish politics when he set off on a 25-day Justice March from Ankara to Istanbul to protest the imprisonment of a CHP lawmaker.

The march by the party leader, then 68, attracted support from a wide spectrum of government opponents. Islamic State suspects were arrested for planning to bomb the demonstration.

One concern for CHP campaign planners will be Kilicdaroglu’s Alevi roots. Alevis, who largely adhere to Shiism mixed with Sufi beliefs, are Turkey’s largest religious minority and have historically been subject to prejudice and pogroms.

“First of all he’s an Alevi in a Sunni-majority country. That will certainly have a negative impact on his chances; we don’t know by how much,” said Unluhisarcikli.

Journalist Murat Yetkin said Kilicdaroglu’s background could provide an avenue of attack for the AKP, telling Al-Monitor, “As soon as Kilicdaroglu is announced as a candidate, [the CHP] are worried that him being Alevi could led to black propaganda under the table, or perhaps openly, from Erdogan and the AKP that will deter conservative voters, the vast majority of whom are Sunnis.”

However, as the leader of a centrist, social democratic party, attracting Turkey’s vast right could prove to be the main obstacle on Kilicdaroglu’s path to power.


“It’s doubtful whether he’s the best person in the alliance to gain support from right-wing voters, ideally including from the AKP and MHP as well,” said Unluhisarcikli. “Other potential names that have been mentioned, first and foremost Mansur Yavas, would find it easier to attract AKP and MHP voters, as well as the votes from the right-wing parties in the Nation Alliance.”

This weakness could be countered by nominating opposition politicians from the right, such as Iyi leader Meral Aksener, for his cabinet if he wins, he added.

Turkish opposition
Courting Turkey’s disenchanted electorate

Despite the economic crisis and Turkey's increasingly undemocratic track record, surveys show the ruling AKP is still the party of choice. So what exactly is holding back the opposition? Ayse Karabat reports from Istanbulp

March 2022 saw the release of Turkey’s official annual inflation rate. The figure – 61 percent – was met with disbelief by many Turkish citizens, including Baki Ersoy, MP for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Like many Turks, Ersoy complained about the recent price hikes, saying the government should stop turning a blind eye to reality. Consequently, he was forced to resign from the MHP, a staunch ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The official inflation rate produced by The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUİK) was directly countered by the Independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG). This group of prominent independent Turkish economists found the country's annual inflation in March to be 142 percent. ENAG could face serious repercussions for challenging the official figures. An AKP bill proposing imprisonment for those who publish alternative statistics without using TUİK-approved methodology is currently awaiting ratification.

Yet other parameters are also indicative of growing fatigue towards Erdogan's government. The official unemployment rate is over 10 percent, more than 1,400 doctors have left the country due to poor working conditions and the tally of femicides continues to grow by the day. A recent survey conducted by Yeditepe University and polling company MAK revealed that 64 percent of young people aged between 18 and 29 want to leave Turkey because they see little hope for the future. 

Other polls suggest, however, that the AKP, which has been in power since 2019 and has seen its popularity wane, is still some four to five points ahead of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).



Plenty of reasons not to vote AKP: ENAG – Turkey's Independent Inflation Research Group – found Turkey's annual inflation in March to be 142 percent, more than double the official figure issued by government body TUIK. Unemployment is officially running at over 10 percent, more than 1,400 doctors have left the country due to poor working conditions and the tally of femicides continues to grow by the day. One recent survey revealed that 64 percent of young people aged between 18 and 29 want to leave Turkey because they see little hope for the future

From identity- to class-based politics

Turkey is a highly polarised society, based largely on differing identities and lifestyles. This is also reflected in the population's voting behaviour. Regardless of income levels, most conservative, religious citizens and some nationalists vote for the AKP and its ally, the MHP, while citizens with secular ideas and modern lifestyles support the opposition, dominated by the CHP. This societal division dates back to the founding of modern Turkey in 1923.

The CHP, established by the founder of the republic Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, supported a headscarf ban in the 1990s and early 2000s in public spheres and universities. In 2010, it was the AKP that lifted the ban. The ruling party remains adept at reminding the public about former grievances caused by the CHP. Leader of the opposition Kemal Kilicdaroglu has even criticised his own party’s past mistakes – such as the headscarf ban – several times.

He has also acknowledged mistakes made by the Turkish state, including harsh taxes imposed on non-Muslim minorities during the early decades of the republic, in which many believe the CHP to have been complicit. When and if his party comes to power in the next election, Kilicdaroglu has promised reconciliation and acknowledgement regarding those events. He has not, however, provided any details as to how his party intends to go about this.

According to Kilicdaroglu, there needs to be an end to politics based on fuelling tension and polarisation. "They are trying to stay in power by consolidating the masses using tensions and polarisation. This style of politics needs to end," he said in interview.

Bekir Agirdir, general manager of KONDA polling company and prominent political analyst, says that lifestyle-based political behaviours and voting habits are changing. Surveys conducted by KONDA reveal that "as unemployment, poverty and inequalities in income distribution increase, class tensions come to the fore and identity tensions are replaced by class tensions".



How to unite the country? Turkey has a history of polarisation along cultural, religious and ideological lines. Despite pleading for an end to politics based on fuelling division and preaching reconciliation, CHP leader Kilicdaroglu must offer more than solidarity with the working class. Committing to ongoing social support for the vulnerable and a 'strengthened parliamentary system' is a good start


On the other hand, it remains hard to assert that switching to the CHP and its leader, Kilicdaroglu, whose Alevi origins mark him out as a member of a historically persecuted Shia sect, will be easy for low-income conservatives. For his part, Kilicdaroglu is careful not to mention his Alevi or Kurdish origins, preferring to demonstrate his solidarity with the people on class issues, such as unpaid bills, rather than identity.

Unpaid bills

On 20 April 2022, Kilicdaroglu began a week of sitting in the dark in his flat in Ankara. His electricity had been cut off after he refused to pay his bills in protest over the 127 percent increase in electricity prices. He said he wanted to stand in solidarity with the 4 million Turkish households that were reportedly unable to pay their electricity bills last year.

Things are no different when it comes to gas. Prices increased by 93 percent last year; more than 1 million households were unable to pay their bills. In response, the government introduced state gas relief: more than 200,000 households applied for it within the first three days. This new social benefit comes on top of an estimated 22 million people who already rely on the state. The AKP is particularly proud of the increases in social benefits it has achieved since coming to power in 2002. The opposition, however, claims that citizens would not have to rely on the state were the right economic policies in place.  

Some are afraid that if the AKP loses power, they could lose their benefits. They also fear losing their jobs in the public sector. There is a widespread belief that to secure public sector employment, which accounts for six million of the country's 22 million jobs, you need good connections.

The CHP is trying to convince people that both these fears are groundless. After all, when the opposition party won local elections in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019, staff recruited by the former AKP authorities were neither sacked nor replaced. CHP municipalities have also introduced social support programmes such as "pending invoices", a website where families in need upload their bills for volunteers to pay.

Such efforts have been welcomed by the public, but the CHP-led opposition has yet to publish a comprehensive economic agenda, explaining how it intends to improve the situation. Just one more reason why voters aren’t jumping on the CHP bandwagon, even if they are unhappy with the current government. Various polls have revealed that some 20 percent of those eligible to vote remain undecided. 


Don't ignore the Kurdish HDP: bearing in mind Erdogan's AKP still enjoys a maximum five point lead over the opposition in the polls, failure to involve the Kurds in any election campaign is likely to end in defeat. With a ten percent share of the vote, the HDP and its voters deserve to be taken seriously – particularly if the CHP is in earnest about reconciliation within Turkey

The CHP and five other opposition parties – the "Nation Alliance" – agree that the main reason for Turkey's current problems is the presidential system, introduced in 2018 after a constitutional referendum. The alliance’s key pledge so far is to change the system to what they call a "strengthened parliamentary system".

This foresees stripping the presidential office of its wide-reaching powers, effecting a separation of the executive. The opposition is also promising to install an independent judiciary, with checks and balances to ensure politically motivated rulings are outlawed.

Kurdish party excluded; no presidential candidate

Although the Nation Alliance’s leaders assured the public they would continue to act together to defeat the ruling AKP, they are still excluding the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which attracts around 10 percent of the votes, mostly from Kurdish-populated areas. The government, especially the MHP, is attempting to criminalise the HDP, many of whose elected mayors and MPs have been jailed. The opposition's hesitation when it comes to including the HDP is preventing them from reaching another 10 percent of voters at least – a crucial margin if they want to defeat the AKP.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has boosted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s approval rating, which had been declining steadily. The public believes his diplomatic efforts towards regional peace and stability are valuable during such turbulent times.

The opposition has yet to present a joint presidential candidate. They say they will decide once a date for the election has been announced. But by the time a date is set, it may be too late for the opposition to campaign – and what momentum they had may be irrevocably lost.

Ayse Karabat

© Qantara.de 2022



No comments:

Post a Comment