A YEAR OUT FROM ELECTION

Rachel Notley and the NDP have Alberta conservatives on the defensive

As Alberta’s governing UCP caucus, constituency associations and party officials fight among themselves the NDP is steaming right ahead.

By Gillian Steward

TORONTO STAR

Contributing Columnist
Mon., May 2, 2022timer3 


Rachel Notley and the Alberta NDP are having a moment.

The media spotlight is on Alberta Premier Jason Kenney as he battles outspoken dissidents in his own party in a desperate attempt to keep the leadership.

But as the United Conservative Party caucus, constituency associations and party officials fight among themselves the NDP is steaming right ahead as though an election could be called any day, even though the fixed election date is just over a year away.

It has already nominated the most candidates. In the past the NDP usually appointed many of its candidates in the waning days of a campaign. Now there are even nomination contests as more hopeful candidates step up to run.

The party is also attracting some heavyweight candidates: a former Calgary city councillor, a prominent law school professor, a leading medical researcher. Some of them are already campaigning at the doorstep.


The NDP can do all this early campaigning because it has thumped the UCP when it comes to fundraising. In 2021, the Alberta NDP raised $6.4 million compared to the UCP’s $3.7 million, all from individual donors. It has raised more than the UCP for six consecutive quarters.

Most recent public opinion polls clearly favour Notley and the NDP. A ThinkHQ poll conducted during the last week of March found that Kenney’s approval ratings remained flat at 29 per cent compared to 69 per cent who disapproved of his performance. Not much had changed since Kenney’s performance rating in February even though the Alberta treasury is raking in royalty money due to the high price of oil and Kenney has cut the gasoline tax.

The ThinkHQ poll also found that if a provincial election were held tomorrow, the NDP would win decisively. It was up 30 points in Edmonton and 14 points in Calgary.

Right now Kenney’s fate is being decided by a mail-in vote of party members, which will conclude May 12. Results will be revealed May 18.

But even if Kenney wins enough support (he has said 51 per cent is all he needs) to stay on as party leader and premier his troubles will not be over. His caucus is badly split. A significant number of UCP MLAs have publicly criticized him. One of them, Brian Jean, former leader of the Wildrose Party, was elected recently in Fort McMurray on a promise to dethrone Kenney as party leader.

The two politicians are bitter rivals since they both ran for the leadership of the UCP after the Wildrose Party and the Alberta Progressive Conservatives united to form the United Conservative Party. If Kenney remains as leader will Jean continue to criticize Kenney from the back benches? Or will he leave the UCP, take half the caucus with him, and form a new party?

If Kenney doesn’t get enough support a leadership race will be called, which will no doubt keep Alberta conservatives arguing until the fall. Jean has already said he will run for the leadership, which is likely to further accentuate the divide among UCP members.

There is also a new right-wing party, the Wildrose Independence Party, which is garnering over 20 per cent support in some parts of the province.

All these options could eventually split the conservative vote and allow the NDP to cruise up the middle. That’s what happened in the 2015 election when the NDP took over the reins of government for the first time in Alberta history.

Kenney is acutely aware of this scenario. At a UCP rally (invited guests only) to kick off the vote on his future he warned that if he was voted out a leadership contest would further divide the party: “It will drive a wedge right down the middle of our party and there’s only one person who wins from that — and her name is Rachel Notley.”

Meanwhile, Notley is busy campaigning, her team seemingly quite united and at this point way out in front.

Gillian Steward is a Calgary-based writer and freelance contributing columnist for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @GillianSteward