Tuesday, May 03, 2022

KINSELLA: Overturning Roe v. Wade will have big Canadian political consequences

Do you think Trudeau will ever hesitate to use a divisive social issue to pulverize his Conservative opponents?

Author of the article: Warren Kinsella
Publishing date: May 03, 2022 •
TORONTO SUN
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a press conference at the Stellantis Automotive Research and Development Centre in Windsor, Ont. on Monday, May 2, 2022. 
PHOTO BY GEOFF ROBINS /THE CANADIAN PRESS

Think the U.S. Supreme Court decision to outlaw abortion is irrelevant to Canada?

Think again.

Because Politico’s bombshell revelation Monday night — a leak of a draft opinion of America’s highest court on the seminal decision that legalized abortion in the United States, Roe v. Wade — is going to have profound consequences for many politicians. On both sides of the border.

In the U.S., overturning Roe v. Wade isn’t a political earthquake — it is bigger than that. It’s something beyond description. It’s akin to the shifting of political tectonic plates.

Among other things, it will lead to many Democratic Party victories in the coming mid-terms. That’s important, because Joe Biden was heading to an electoral pounding in November. No longer: He now has a wedge that will hasten the end of Republican careers.

It’ll lead to demands — which Biden may grant, after the mid-terms — to enlarge the high court and load it up with progressive jurists. That’s a given.

And how Politico got their hands on a draft Supreme Court opinion? That’s big, too. The resulting inquiries will certainly preoccupy lawyers and politicos (and maybe detectives) for years to come. Why? Because such a leak is something that has never, ever happened before. It means the Supreme Court justices are at war with each other, basically.

But overturning Roe v. Wade won’t just shake up American politics. It is going to have big political consequences up here, too.

Because if you think Justin Trudeau will hesitate to use abortion against his conservative opponents, you are dreaming in Technicolor. Abortion is the ultimate political wedge — one that mobilizes most Canadian women, of all stripes, to vote to maintain control over their bodies.

For Pierre Poilievre, the frontrunner in the Conservative Party leadership race, the return of the abortion debate is very, very unhelpful. For years, the Ottawa-area MP has enjoyed the support of the Campaign Life Coalition, the powerful lobby group that wants to outlaw abortion, gay marriage and euthanasia.

Federal Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre holds a campaign rally in Toronto, Saturday, April 30, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

On its web site, the Campaign Life Coalition gave approving green check marks to Poilievre for voting for bills that would make it an offence to “kill or injure a pre-born child” — and to “protect women from coercion to abort.” For most of his political career, Poilievre has opposed abortion, full stop.

Only very recently — as the prospect of seizing the Conservative leadership grew larger — did Poilievre abandon his previous positions on abortion and gay marriage, thereby angering the Campaign Life Coalition. But, under his leadership, he still admits he would permit MPs to bring forward laws to criminalize abortion.

That matters. Because, even if Poilievre has magically experienced a whiplash-inducing reversal on abortion, the likes of MP Leslyn Lewis have not. Lewis is a social conservative extremist — and her presence in the upper ranks of the leadership contenders can’t be dismissed. Lewis doesn’t hide her opposition to abortion, saying: (There’s) nothing hidden about it.”

Exasperated conservatives will point out, correctly, that conservative jurists do not presently dominate on the Canadian Supreme Court. They will say, correctly, that neither Stephen Harper nor Brian Mulroney rigged our highest court with social conservatives.

But do you think Trudeau will ever hesitate to use a divisive social issue to pulverize his Conservative opponents? In 2015, 2019 and 2021, did the Liberal leader ever seem reluctant to beat Tories with whatever club was laying nearby, however cynical that may be?

No and no. Trudeau has used abortion to hobble Conservatives before, and he’ll do so again. The reversal of Roe v. Wade guarantees it.

On Monday night, you could almost hear the corks being popped on the Veuve Clicquot at the Office of the Prime Minister.

Because abortion is back.

And abortion kills — Tory political careers.

KINSELLA IS A FORMER LIBERAL PARTY STRATEGIST AND CONSULTANT 


Conservatives MPs told to stay silent about draft suggesting Roe vs. Wade could be overturned

It’s also not unusual for MPs to be instructed not to comment on international issues that have no immediate implications for Canada.

By Stephanie Levitz
Ottawa Bureau
TORONTO STAR
Tue., May 3, 2022


OTTAWA—Conservatives MPs are being told to stay silent about a leaked draft of a U.S. Supreme Court decision suggesting that nation’s top court is poised to overturn the landmark abortion rights case Roe vs. Wade.

A “note to caucus” was sent from interim Opposition Leader Candice Bergen’s communications staff early Tuesday morning, as the world was abuzz with news of both the contents of the draft ruling and the unprecedented leak itself.

“Good morning,” reads the memo, a copy of which was obtained by the Star.

“Conservatives will not be commenting on draft rulings leaked from the Supreme Court of the United States.”

Such notes to any party’s caucus are not uncommon, as MPs are often provided talking points or lines to give in response to issues of the day.


It’s also not unusual for MPs to be instructed not to comment on international issues that have no immediate implications for Canada.

But the debate over how far the state ought to go to regulate access to abortion is an active one within Canadian Conservative circles.

Conservative MPs routinely introduce private members’ bills that seek to regulate or restrict abortion.

In the last session of Parliament, Saskatchewan MP Cathay Wagantall introduced one to make it a crime to deliberately end a pregnancy due to the sex of the fetus, a practice known as sex-selective abortion.

Eighty of her fellow Conservatives MPs voted in favour of the bill, 38 against. The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois were all against it, and it failed to move ahead in the legislative process.


Meanwhile, the Conservatives are in the midst of a leadership race where just Monday, two candidates being supported by the anti-abortion group Campaign Life Coalition were told they were not eligible to run, a decision the CLC linked directly to their politics.

The party disputes that allegation.

“Final verification was based on the requirements set out under the rules, not any prospective candidate’s political beliefs,” the party’s executive director Wayne Benson said in a statement late Monday.

Of the six candidates officially in the running for leadership, only one, Leslyn Lewis, has introduced policy promises to restrict access to abortion in Canada.

If she became prime minister, she is promising to ban abortions based on gender, criminalize what she calls coerced abortions, end funding for overseas abortion programs and increase funding for pregnancy centres.

Lewis is also the MP for the riding of Haldimand-Norfolk, a riding she won last year following her effort to become leader of the Conservative party in 2020.

The draft Supreme Court decision in a Mississippi abortion case was reported by Politico late Monday.

In effect, it states there is no constitutional right to abortion services and would allow individual states to more heavily regulate or outright ban the procedure.

It’s unclear if the draft represents the court’s final word on the matter — opinions often change in ways big and small in the drafting process.

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