A Third of Global GDP Now Generated

in Non-Democracies

Tom Orlik (Economist), Scott Johnson (Economist) and Björn van Roye (Economist)

Fri, July 1, 2022 

(Bloomberg) -- A more fragmented global economy appears to have arrived, with a third of output now generated in non-democratic countries, according to calculations by Bloomberg Economics. In different ways and to different degrees, Brexit, the US-China trade war, the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have moved the world away from free-market principles, toward a messier system where narrow nationalism and fractious geopolitics loom large in trade and investment decisions. It’s far from clear where that process will end: A new Cold War between democratic and autocratic states is one possibility. A multipolar world with rival power centers in Washington, Beijing, Brussels and New Delhi is another.