As Tunisians voted Monday over whether to give the president more power, critics say the country is one step closer to a dictatorship and the end of the only surviving Arab Spring democracy.
A controversial referendum Monday over a new constitution in Tunisia raised concerns that growing power for the president could drag the country back to its pre-Arab Spring dictatorship.
The constitution, which was anticipated to pass with low voter turnout, would cement power in the hands of Tunisian President Kais Saied. Since last year, the leader has given himself the power to rule by decree, fired multiple judges after freezing Parliament and dismissed his government in what some have decried as a coup.
Members of some of the main opposition parties boycotted the vote on the draft constitution, which has been criticized for lacking public consultation and would give the president the power to select and fire a prime minister and other ministers, and reduces the power of Tunisia’s judiciary and Parliament.
“The divisions in Tunisia are the canary in the coal mine for the Arab World,” said Farid Laroussi, a French professor at the University of British Columbia who focuses on historical and cultural issues in North Africa.
Tunisia was the first country to trigger the Arab Spring in late 2010, when residents took to the streets to demand the removal of former autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
“It was nearly 30 years of dictatorship falling in 20-some odd days,” said Salah-Dean Satouri, a William & Mary Global Research Institute fellow from the U.S. speaking to the Star from Tunis, the Tunisian capital. “There was a lot of hope … that Tunisia was going to progress.”
Though, unlike the other Arab Spring countries, democracy has survived in Tunisia, though there has been little progress since the revolution. The economic stagnation, unemployment and poverty plaguing the country and political paralysis resulting from a rise in opposition parties with little consensus has led to disillusionment with democracy.
For some, Monday’s vote was essentially “between the plague and cholera,” said Jabeur Fathally, an associate law professor at the University of Ottawa, referring to the opposition and current ruler.
In speaking with citizens, Satouri said Tunisians were divided on the referendum. Few turned up to the polls early Monday, and some of the ones who planned to vote in favour of the proposed constitution said they supported Saied and the new constitution out of resistance to the Ennahdha, the previous governing party, which has been blamed for the country’s economic problems.
Most of the main opposition parties advocated for a boycott of the election to signal that the referendum and the president’s attempts at centralizing power were unconstitutional. Others planned to vote in favour of the constitution despite believing that Saied hasn’t addressed Tunisia’s problems over the last year.
“Most Tunisians just want to live and if they’re going to vote ‘yes’ on this constitution, it’s because they want stability. They view Kais Saied as a stable option,” Satouri said.
Other Tunisians didn’t want to vote out of concerns that the election results would be falsified. Satouri expressed concern about the country’s future if the proposed constitution was passed.
“I’m quite worried, if I’m going to be honest, as a Tunisian American,” Satouri said. “I’m afraid that Tunisia will completely backslide out of democracy, and … contrary to what a lot of citizens believe, I don’t think it’s going to be easy to mobilize like they did in 2011.”
For Satouri’s colleague Ian DeHaven, another William & Mary Global Research Institute fellow based in Tunis, Monday’s vote was a “death knell” for democracy, but something that ha been coming for a long time.
The referendum is akin to adding “psychological legitimacy to something that has already been in place. It’s like making Kais Saied’s power de jure rather than de facto,” he said. In other words, the election will entitle Saied to greater powers by right.
Though it wasn’t known Monday when the results would be announced, if the new constitution passes, Laroussi said it could be used by Arab countries to declare that democracy doesn’t work. But the real picture is more complex.
“It is difficult to say that Tunisia is dictatorship. It’s not,” Laroussi said, pointing to the presence of elections, a free press and political opposition in the country. “But we are heading toward a strongman regime.”
With file from the Associated Press.
Maria Iqbal is a 905 Region-based staff reporter for the Star.
Reach Maria via email: miqbal@torstar.ca
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