Ukraine and Russia are racing to replenish their depleted stocks of weapons.
By Yana Dlugy
July 12, 2022
The Ukrainian military said it destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in the occupied Kherson region.
The war has caused a spike in demand for traditional defense equipment.
Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
The arms race
With Russia making slow but steady gains in the east, Ukraine has increasingly appealed for faster deliveries of sophisticated weapons from the West to hold off its better-armed foe.
The U.S. and many European countries have promised more weaponry, but they are wary of sending too much before Ukrainian troops can receive proper training. The Pentagon is also concerned about potentially depleting its own stockpiles.
Many of Russia’s precision-guided weapons have been used up in nearly five months of bombardment, and Russia is now seeking hundreds of surveillance drones from Iran, according to President Biden’s national security adviser.
To get a sense of how the two sides are trying to replenish their military stocks, I spoke to Alexandra Marksteiner, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute who tracks the global arms industry. Our conversation has been lightly edited and condensed.
The arms race
With Russia making slow but steady gains in the east, Ukraine has increasingly appealed for faster deliveries of sophisticated weapons from the West to hold off its better-armed foe.
The U.S. and many European countries have promised more weaponry, but they are wary of sending too much before Ukrainian troops can receive proper training. The Pentagon is also concerned about potentially depleting its own stockpiles.
Many of Russia’s precision-guided weapons have been used up in nearly five months of bombardment, and Russia is now seeking hundreds of surveillance drones from Iran, according to President Biden’s national security adviser.
To get a sense of how the two sides are trying to replenish their military stocks, I spoke to Alexandra Marksteiner, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute who tracks the global arms industry. Our conversation has been lightly edited and condensed.
Ukraine has been using more Javelin missiles each week than are produced in a year.
Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
Will the arms industry be able to keep up with demand?
Alexandra: Right now it does seem like Ukraine is going through these stockpiles faster than can be replenished. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 Javelin missiles a year and Ukraine uses about 500 a day. Lockheed has promised to double production to 4,000, but that’s not going to be much of a dent.
Having the industrial capacity to replenish these stocks is going to be essential. This industrial capacity is what gave the Allies a leg up against the Axis powers during World War II. So it’s incredibly important. It’s an aspect of this war that’s not talked about enough.
The arms industry, even before the invasion, dealt with things that all other industries are dealing with at the moment — rising prices of inputs, labor shortages, supply chain issues. So there were already structural issues that were affecting it and now you have this massive increase in demand.
So the question is, who can sustain what level of production for longer — Russia, or Ukraine plus the U.S. and Europe? Right now, the cards are definitely stacked against the Russian industry.
Will the arms industry be able to keep up with demand?
Alexandra: Right now it does seem like Ukraine is going through these stockpiles faster than can be replenished. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 Javelin missiles a year and Ukraine uses about 500 a day. Lockheed has promised to double production to 4,000, but that’s not going to be much of a dent.
Having the industrial capacity to replenish these stocks is going to be essential. This industrial capacity is what gave the Allies a leg up against the Axis powers during World War II. So it’s incredibly important. It’s an aspect of this war that’s not talked about enough.
The arms industry, even before the invasion, dealt with things that all other industries are dealing with at the moment — rising prices of inputs, labor shortages, supply chain issues. So there were already structural issues that were affecting it and now you have this massive increase in demand.
So the question is, who can sustain what level of production for longer — Russia, or Ukraine plus the U.S. and Europe? Right now, the cards are definitely stacked against the Russian industry.
Replenishing weapons stocks is essential for both Ukraine and Russia.
Credit...Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times
What is the situation in the West?
In Europe and the U.S., obviously if you take all those arms industries together, it’s going to be much larger than the arms industrial capacity of Russia. But you also have to consider that there are orders that were logged many years ago. It’s sometimes very hard to shift gears quickly.
And there are other parts of the world that these countries have been focused on. For example, the strategic rivalry with China is taking up a lot of not just capacity, but mental head space in U.S. defense planning. So you can’t say that the entire arms industry is going to be devoted to making the systems that are needed by Ukraine.
It’s also a matter of how quickly production capacities can be shifted. In the past couple of years, you had this idea that the future of war was going to be hybrid, it was going to be low intensity, more unconventional. So there was a focus on all these high tech, next generation technologies, artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles.
And then the Ukraine war kind of shot that impression completely. There is now renewed focus on traditional defense equipment: tanks, artillery, ammunition.
What is the situation in the West?
In Europe and the U.S., obviously if you take all those arms industries together, it’s going to be much larger than the arms industrial capacity of Russia. But you also have to consider that there are orders that were logged many years ago. It’s sometimes very hard to shift gears quickly.
And there are other parts of the world that these countries have been focused on. For example, the strategic rivalry with China is taking up a lot of not just capacity, but mental head space in U.S. defense planning. So you can’t say that the entire arms industry is going to be devoted to making the systems that are needed by Ukraine.
It’s also a matter of how quickly production capacities can be shifted. In the past couple of years, you had this idea that the future of war was going to be hybrid, it was going to be low intensity, more unconventional. So there was a focus on all these high tech, next generation technologies, artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles.
And then the Ukraine war kind of shot that impression completely. There is now renewed focus on traditional defense equipment: tanks, artillery, ammunition.
The focus has shifted and that means that production capacities are also going to have to shift in an industry that was already kind of struggling.
Russia has gone through massive amounts of equipment.
Credit...Mauricio Lima for The New York Times
What about the situation in Russia?
The Russian arms industry is quite large. There are indications that it actually shrank a bit over the past couple of years, but it’s still definitely a force to be reckoned with. And, of course, the Russian arms industry is now going to be fully committed to this war.
But an interesting thing about the Russian arms industry is that it was actually instructed over the past couple of years to shift more focus to civilian products.
We think it was because there was a massive military modernization program in Russia during the 2010s. It was a 10-year program, it was very expensive. It gave a lot of contracts to the Russian arms industry. But then the Kremlin was not so sure how many physical resources it had to give to military modernization over the next decade, so in order to keep the arms industry alive, they said, “OK, please focus more on civilian products and survive until we need you again.”
Now the industry has to shift again. And it has to replenish those stockpiles that Russia is losing every single day.
I am very heartened by the international aid and attention given to Ukrainian refugees, with many countries opening their borders to them and welcoming them in. At the same time, countless refugees fleeing the Middle East have been met with barbed-wire fences. At best, they are treated with indifference. At worst, they are abused, beaten, detained in inhumane conditions and even killed. While we continue to help Ukrainians, it is imperative that we adopt the same attitude toward all refugees and victims of war, because nobody chooses war, it is forced upon them. — Jiang Wanyan, Singapore
What about the situation in Russia?
The Russian arms industry is quite large. There are indications that it actually shrank a bit over the past couple of years, but it’s still definitely a force to be reckoned with. And, of course, the Russian arms industry is now going to be fully committed to this war.
But an interesting thing about the Russian arms industry is that it was actually instructed over the past couple of years to shift more focus to civilian products.
We think it was because there was a massive military modernization program in Russia during the 2010s. It was a 10-year program, it was very expensive. It gave a lot of contracts to the Russian arms industry. But then the Kremlin was not so sure how many physical resources it had to give to military modernization over the next decade, so in order to keep the arms industry alive, they said, “OK, please focus more on civilian products and survive until we need you again.”
Now the industry has to shift again. And it has to replenish those stockpiles that Russia is losing every single day.
I am very heartened by the international aid and attention given to Ukrainian refugees, with many countries opening their borders to them and welcoming them in. At the same time, countless refugees fleeing the Middle East have been met with barbed-wire fences. At best, they are treated with indifference. At worst, they are abused, beaten, detained in inhumane conditions and even killed. While we continue to help Ukrainians, it is imperative that we adopt the same attitude toward all refugees and victims of war, because nobody chooses war, it is forced upon them. — Jiang Wanyan, Singapore
No comments:
Post a Comment