All eyes on army as Brazil heads for elections
Marcelo SILVA DE SOUSA
Thu, September 8, 2022
With President Jair Bolsonaro trailing in the polls and regularly alleging Brazil's voting system is plagued by fraud, all eyes are on the military and the role it could play in the country's deeply divisive October elections.
The far-right president, an ex-army captain, has enthusiastically courted the military's support and has put it forward as a referee in the elections, raising fears he could seek an armed intervention if he loses.
However, experts say that while Bolsonaro has the backing of some in the military, it is highly unlikely the institution would get involved in anything resembling a coup.
Bolsonaro, who openly admires Brazil's 1964-1985 military dictatorship, has drawn the army into politics on an unprecedented scale, naming more than 6,000 active-duty or retired service members to jobs in his administration, all the way up to Vice President Hamilton Mourao, an army reserve general.
That mix of military and politics was on full display Wednesday as Brazil celebrated the 200th anniversary of its independence from Portugal with the 67-year-old commander in chief presiding over a combination of military parades and campaign rallies by his supporters.
"Bolsonaro believes it strengthens him to cultivate close ties with the armed forces and put on displays of military strength," said Carlos Fico, a military history expert at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
- Enlisting the army -
Bolsonaro, who trails leftist ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003-2010) heading into the October 2 election, has never presented concrete evidence of electoral fraud.
But he has sought to enlist the military in his crusade against Brazil's electronic voting system.
The armed forces regularly provide logistical support for elections, but the president has pushed to expand that to new levels, insisting they act as referees.
When the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) bowed to his wishes by inviting the military to take part in a special Election Transparency Commission, Bolsonaro hailed the move.
"The armed forces are responsible, they're credible in the eyes of the public and they're not going to play a merely decorative role in this election," he said.
"They're going to do the right thing."
Hewing to Bolsonaro's line, the nine military members on the commission presented it with a list of nearly 100 points questioning supposed vulnerabilities in the electronic voting machines Brazil has used since 1996.
But in the end, the TSE concluded that most of the critiques were "opinions," and denied allegations such as the existence of a "dark room" where votes are tabulated.
- 'Political theater' -
However, experts say military support for Bolsonaro has its limits.
"There's not the slightest chance (the military) will play any role outside the one established in the constitution," said reserve general Maynard Santa Rosa, former secretary for strategic affairs under Bolsonaro.
Even though Bolsonaro enjoys close ties with top military figures, such as Defense Minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira, and has picked former defense minister Walter Braga Netto as his running mate, Fico, the military history expert, said those two "have no troops under their command."
"There is no generalized movement by active duty service members worried about verifying the electronic voting system," he said.
Fico added that any election-related unrest from the security forces was more likely to come from the police, a group "very influenced by 'Bolsonaro-ism.'"
Bolsonaro's campaign team has pushed him to tone down his rhetoric on the election system, fearful of alienating moderate voters.
But an aide close to the president, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted Bolsonaro was unlikely to listen.
"It's part of his persona. It's political theater," the aide said.
"Without that, he wouldn't be Bolsonaro."
msi/jhb/md
Marcelo SILVA DE SOUSA
Thu, September 8, 2022
With President Jair Bolsonaro trailing in the polls and regularly alleging Brazil's voting system is plagued by fraud, all eyes are on the military and the role it could play in the country's deeply divisive October elections.
The far-right president, an ex-army captain, has enthusiastically courted the military's support and has put it forward as a referee in the elections, raising fears he could seek an armed intervention if he loses.
However, experts say that while Bolsonaro has the backing of some in the military, it is highly unlikely the institution would get involved in anything resembling a coup.
Bolsonaro, who openly admires Brazil's 1964-1985 military dictatorship, has drawn the army into politics on an unprecedented scale, naming more than 6,000 active-duty or retired service members to jobs in his administration, all the way up to Vice President Hamilton Mourao, an army reserve general.
That mix of military and politics was on full display Wednesday as Brazil celebrated the 200th anniversary of its independence from Portugal with the 67-year-old commander in chief presiding over a combination of military parades and campaign rallies by his supporters.
"Bolsonaro believes it strengthens him to cultivate close ties with the armed forces and put on displays of military strength," said Carlos Fico, a military history expert at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
- Enlisting the army -
Bolsonaro, who trails leftist ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003-2010) heading into the October 2 election, has never presented concrete evidence of electoral fraud.
But he has sought to enlist the military in his crusade against Brazil's electronic voting system.
The armed forces regularly provide logistical support for elections, but the president has pushed to expand that to new levels, insisting they act as referees.
When the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) bowed to his wishes by inviting the military to take part in a special Election Transparency Commission, Bolsonaro hailed the move.
"The armed forces are responsible, they're credible in the eyes of the public and they're not going to play a merely decorative role in this election," he said.
"They're going to do the right thing."
Hewing to Bolsonaro's line, the nine military members on the commission presented it with a list of nearly 100 points questioning supposed vulnerabilities in the electronic voting machines Brazil has used since 1996.
But in the end, the TSE concluded that most of the critiques were "opinions," and denied allegations such as the existence of a "dark room" where votes are tabulated.
- 'Political theater' -
However, experts say military support for Bolsonaro has its limits.
"There's not the slightest chance (the military) will play any role outside the one established in the constitution," said reserve general Maynard Santa Rosa, former secretary for strategic affairs under Bolsonaro.
Even though Bolsonaro enjoys close ties with top military figures, such as Defense Minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira, and has picked former defense minister Walter Braga Netto as his running mate, Fico, the military history expert, said those two "have no troops under their command."
"There is no generalized movement by active duty service members worried about verifying the electronic voting system," he said.
Fico added that any election-related unrest from the security forces was more likely to come from the police, a group "very influenced by 'Bolsonaro-ism.'"
Bolsonaro's campaign team has pushed him to tone down his rhetoric on the election system, fearful of alienating moderate voters.
But an aide close to the president, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted Bolsonaro was unlikely to listen.
"It's part of his persona. It's political theater," the aide said.
"Without that, he wouldn't be Bolsonaro."
msi/jhb/md
By CARLA BRIDI and MAURICIO SAVARESE
yesterday
1 of 19
1 of 19
President Jair Bolsonaro greets supporters in Copacabana beach during the country's bicentennial independence celebrations, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2022.
(AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)
BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro transformed the nation’s bicentennial Wednesday into a multi-city campaign event, but didn’t use his appearances to undermine the upcoming election as his opponents had feared.
Bolsonaro, who trails former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in polls before the Oct. 2 vote, drew tens of thousands of supporters to rallies in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro. The armed forces put on military displays in the cities, with the president attending.
The far-right Bolsonaro has stacked his administration with military officers and repeatedly sought their support, most recently to cast doubt on the reliability of the nation’s electronic voting system, which raised fears his speeches on Independence Day would be filled with fresh attacks. The far-right nationalist held back from doing so, and instead focused on attacks on da Silva and his leftist Workers’ Party.
Bolsonaro compared da Silva to autocratic leftist leaders in Venezuela and Nicaragua and called Brazil’s former president “a gangster.”
“We will have a much better administration with us being elected, with the grace of God,” the president said in a speech in Rio.
His prior efforts to sow doubt about the voting system has prompted widespread concern among his opponents that he may follow former U.S. President Donald Trump ’s footsteps in rejecting election results.
Bolsonaro arrived at the military display in Brasilia accompanied by at least one of the business executives who allegedly participated in a private chat group that included comments favoring a possible coup and military involvement in politics, and who is being investigated by Federal Police for possibly financing anti-democratic acts.
The crowd, decked out in green and yellow, chanted against da Silva, who wants to return to the post he held in 2003-2010.
Later, da Silva said he had never used Independence Day for electoral ends.
“Brazil needs better luck. It needs a government that takes care of people. A person who talks about harmony, love, economic growth, industrialization, job creation, pay increases,” da Silva said. “Brazil needs love, not hatred.”
Other presidential candidates also criticized Bolsonaro’s electoral use of the country’s independence bicentennial, and party leaders have suggested they will take the case to electoral courts.
Speaking at a rally after the parade in Brasilia, Bolsonaro made no reference to Brazil’s struggle for independence and instead focused on his achievements while his supporters made clear they came to support their candidate.
“We came for democracy, we want a free country, with no corruption or robbing, we want a country with clean elections,” said farmer Marcelo Zanella, 46, who drove some 800 kilometers (496 miles) from the state of Tocantins.
Tens of thousands also gathered on Sao Paulo’s main downtown boulevard. Due to a downpour and the fact Bolsonaro wasn’t scheduled to appear, turnout was apparently smaller than last year’s.
Later, Bolsonaro attended another military display in Rio along Copacabana beach — where his supporters often hold demonstrations. It entailed rifle salutes, cannon fire, flyovers, paratroopers and warships anchored offshore. He delivered his speech from a sound truck, on the back of which a draped banner read: “CLEAN AND TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS.”
Bolsonaro, a former army captain and lawmaker for decades before winning the 2018 presidential election, has spent most of his first term locking horns with Supreme Court justices, some of whom are also top members of the electoral authority.
He has accused some judges of hamstringing his administration and favoring da Silva. That has effectively turned those figures and their institutions into enemies for Bolsonaro’s base.
When Bolsonaro launched his reelection bid July 24, he asked supporters for “one last” show of support on Independence Day.
Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said Bolsonaro needed to energize his campaign and reach out to undecided voters.
“He needed something new and failed to do that. Bolsonaro once more only spoke with his supporters, indeed many of them, and with that the window might be closing for other voters to join him,” Melo said.
Since his campaign began, Bolsonaro has softened his tone. In the southern city of Curitiba last week, he told supporters to lower a banner demanding a military coup.
Carlos Ranulfo de Melo, a political scientist at Federal University of Minas Gerais, said this likely reflects campaign strategy to avoid fiery rhetoric and instead focus on the improving economy.
“We will convince those who think differently from us, we will convince them of what is best for Brazil,” Bolsonaro told the crowd in Brasilia.
The president is known for off-the-cuff outbursts. At last year’s Independence Day rally, he pushed the country to the brink of an institutional crisis by proclaiming he would ignore rulings from a Supreme Court justice. He later backtracked, saying his comments came in the heat of the moment, and the boiling tension was reduced to a simmer.
In both speeches in Brasilia and Rio, he made a couple veiled critiques of the Supreme Court, which elicited boos from the crowd.
“The institutional wear-and-tear was present in his speech in Brasilia, but in a less explicit way than last year,” said Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risk at consultancy Tendencias Consultoria.
There had also been concerns about political violence, which didn’t materialize during the afternoon.
In Rio, it was a scene of adulation. Sound trucks blasted songs exalting Bolsonaro to a crowd packing multiple blocks of the beachside boulevard, spilling onto the sand and down to the waterline. Motorboats and jet skis floated just offshore. When the first paratroopers started gliding down, one group began chanting, “Legend!”, a nickname for the president.
“I came to honor my president,” said Myleni Lima, 50, from the city’s west zone. “I’m going to reeelect him, me and the Brazilian people.”
___ Savarese reported from Sao Paulo. Associated Press journalists Diane Jeantet and David Biller Jeantet in Rio de Janeiro contributed to this report.
BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro transformed the nation’s bicentennial Wednesday into a multi-city campaign event, but didn’t use his appearances to undermine the upcoming election as his opponents had feared.
Bolsonaro, who trails former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in polls before the Oct. 2 vote, drew tens of thousands of supporters to rallies in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro. The armed forces put on military displays in the cities, with the president attending.
The far-right Bolsonaro has stacked his administration with military officers and repeatedly sought their support, most recently to cast doubt on the reliability of the nation’s electronic voting system, which raised fears his speeches on Independence Day would be filled with fresh attacks. The far-right nationalist held back from doing so, and instead focused on attacks on da Silva and his leftist Workers’ Party.
Bolsonaro compared da Silva to autocratic leftist leaders in Venezuela and Nicaragua and called Brazil’s former president “a gangster.”
“We will have a much better administration with us being elected, with the grace of God,” the president said in a speech in Rio.
His prior efforts to sow doubt about the voting system has prompted widespread concern among his opponents that he may follow former U.S. President Donald Trump ’s footsteps in rejecting election results.
Bolsonaro arrived at the military display in Brasilia accompanied by at least one of the business executives who allegedly participated in a private chat group that included comments favoring a possible coup and military involvement in politics, and who is being investigated by Federal Police for possibly financing anti-democratic acts.
The crowd, decked out in green and yellow, chanted against da Silva, who wants to return to the post he held in 2003-2010.
Later, da Silva said he had never used Independence Day for electoral ends.
“Brazil needs better luck. It needs a government that takes care of people. A person who talks about harmony, love, economic growth, industrialization, job creation, pay increases,” da Silva said. “Brazil needs love, not hatred.”
Other presidential candidates also criticized Bolsonaro’s electoral use of the country’s independence bicentennial, and party leaders have suggested they will take the case to electoral courts.
Speaking at a rally after the parade in Brasilia, Bolsonaro made no reference to Brazil’s struggle for independence and instead focused on his achievements while his supporters made clear they came to support their candidate.
“We came for democracy, we want a free country, with no corruption or robbing, we want a country with clean elections,” said farmer Marcelo Zanella, 46, who drove some 800 kilometers (496 miles) from the state of Tocantins.
Tens of thousands also gathered on Sao Paulo’s main downtown boulevard. Due to a downpour and the fact Bolsonaro wasn’t scheduled to appear, turnout was apparently smaller than last year’s.
Later, Bolsonaro attended another military display in Rio along Copacabana beach — where his supporters often hold demonstrations. It entailed rifle salutes, cannon fire, flyovers, paratroopers and warships anchored offshore. He delivered his speech from a sound truck, on the back of which a draped banner read: “CLEAN AND TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS.”
Bolsonaro, a former army captain and lawmaker for decades before winning the 2018 presidential election, has spent most of his first term locking horns with Supreme Court justices, some of whom are also top members of the electoral authority.
He has accused some judges of hamstringing his administration and favoring da Silva. That has effectively turned those figures and their institutions into enemies for Bolsonaro’s base.
When Bolsonaro launched his reelection bid July 24, he asked supporters for “one last” show of support on Independence Day.
Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said Bolsonaro needed to energize his campaign and reach out to undecided voters.
“He needed something new and failed to do that. Bolsonaro once more only spoke with his supporters, indeed many of them, and with that the window might be closing for other voters to join him,” Melo said.
Since his campaign began, Bolsonaro has softened his tone. In the southern city of Curitiba last week, he told supporters to lower a banner demanding a military coup.
Carlos Ranulfo de Melo, a political scientist at Federal University of Minas Gerais, said this likely reflects campaign strategy to avoid fiery rhetoric and instead focus on the improving economy.
“We will convince those who think differently from us, we will convince them of what is best for Brazil,” Bolsonaro told the crowd in Brasilia.
The president is known for off-the-cuff outbursts. At last year’s Independence Day rally, he pushed the country to the brink of an institutional crisis by proclaiming he would ignore rulings from a Supreme Court justice. He later backtracked, saying his comments came in the heat of the moment, and the boiling tension was reduced to a simmer.
In both speeches in Brasilia and Rio, he made a couple veiled critiques of the Supreme Court, which elicited boos from the crowd.
“The institutional wear-and-tear was present in his speech in Brasilia, but in a less explicit way than last year,” said Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risk at consultancy Tendencias Consultoria.
There had also been concerns about political violence, which didn’t materialize during the afternoon.
In Rio, it was a scene of adulation. Sound trucks blasted songs exalting Bolsonaro to a crowd packing multiple blocks of the beachside boulevard, spilling onto the sand and down to the waterline. Motorboats and jet skis floated just offshore. When the first paratroopers started gliding down, one group began chanting, “Legend!”, a nickname for the president.
“I came to honor my president,” said Myleni Lima, 50, from the city’s west zone. “I’m going to reeelect him, me and the Brazilian people.”
___ Savarese reported from Sao Paulo. Associated Press journalists Diane Jeantet and David Biller Jeantet in Rio de Janeiro contributed to this report.
No comments:
Post a Comment