Lula Could Clinch First-Round Election Win, Datafolha Says
Andrew Rosati
Fri, September 23, 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is gaining momentum in the final days of campaigning, nearing the simple majority needed to give him a first-round presidential victory on Oct. 2, a new DataFolha poll shows.
Leftist challenger Lula would take 47% of the first-round vote, up from 45% a week ago, with the increase falling inside the poll’s 2 percentage-point margin of error. Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro held steady at 33%.
A candidate needs to break the threshold of 50% of valid votes to clinch a first-round win, otherwise the front-runners square off again on Oct. 30.
Trying to undercut each other’s support, the current and former president are crisscrossing the nation and making their final pitches. There is little room to change hearts and minds. Most voters picked their candidate long ago, and just a tiny fraction, 2% of them, identify as undecided.
Lula, 76, has been helped by a tacit endorsement from his predecessor, former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, as well as an outpouring of support from actors and musicians, who called on fans to help secure a first-round win.
Throughout the race, Bolsonaro, 67, a right-wing nationalist, and his allies have discredited major opinion polls, claiming they are in the pocket of Big Media and political foes. They say support on the street shows the president is set to win another four-year term.
Third- and fourth-placed candidates claim 13% of voting intentions and analysts are closely watching for signs of a late-race migration toward the front-runners.
Other surveys this week also show Lula trending upward and within striking distance of winning outright. The latest release from Datafolha, Brazil’s most influential polling firm, widened its sample size to increase accuracy.
Voting is mandatory in Brazil. Pulling out null and blank votes, Datafolha now shows Lula on the margin of winning 50% in the first round.
Some political observers caution that the race is likely tighter than polls suggest: Voters may be reluctant to openly state they’re backing Bolsonaro, who is known for his crass style and botched handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
In a second and final round, Lula would take 54% of the vote, while Bolsonaro would get 38%, the poll found.
Datafolha interviewed 6,754 people in person throughout the country between Sept. 20 and Sept. 22
Andrew Rosati
Fri, September 23, 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is gaining momentum in the final days of campaigning, nearing the simple majority needed to give him a first-round presidential victory on Oct. 2, a new DataFolha poll shows.
Leftist challenger Lula would take 47% of the first-round vote, up from 45% a week ago, with the increase falling inside the poll’s 2 percentage-point margin of error. Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro held steady at 33%.
A candidate needs to break the threshold of 50% of valid votes to clinch a first-round win, otherwise the front-runners square off again on Oct. 30.
Trying to undercut each other’s support, the current and former president are crisscrossing the nation and making their final pitches. There is little room to change hearts and minds. Most voters picked their candidate long ago, and just a tiny fraction, 2% of them, identify as undecided.
Lula, 76, has been helped by a tacit endorsement from his predecessor, former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, as well as an outpouring of support from actors and musicians, who called on fans to help secure a first-round win.
Throughout the race, Bolsonaro, 67, a right-wing nationalist, and his allies have discredited major opinion polls, claiming they are in the pocket of Big Media and political foes. They say support on the street shows the president is set to win another four-year term.
Third- and fourth-placed candidates claim 13% of voting intentions and analysts are closely watching for signs of a late-race migration toward the front-runners.
Other surveys this week also show Lula trending upward and within striking distance of winning outright. The latest release from Datafolha, Brazil’s most influential polling firm, widened its sample size to increase accuracy.
Voting is mandatory in Brazil. Pulling out null and blank votes, Datafolha now shows Lula on the margin of winning 50% in the first round.
Some political observers caution that the race is likely tighter than polls suggest: Voters may be reluctant to openly state they’re backing Bolsonaro, who is known for his crass style and botched handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
In a second and final round, Lula would take 54% of the vote, while Bolsonaro would get 38%, the poll found.
Datafolha interviewed 6,754 people in person throughout the country between Sept. 20 and Sept. 22
Brazil environmentalist Silva all-in with Lula against Bolsonaro
Environmentalist and federal deputy candidate Marina Silva
Environmentalist and federal deputy candidate Marina Silva
speaks during an interview with Reuters in Sao Paulo
Fri, September 23, 2022
By Flavia Marreiro
SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Prominent Brazil environmentalist Marina Silva, who was environment minister under ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva before breaking with his party, told Reuters she is throwing her full support behind his campaign and did not rule out a role in government if he wins a third term.
Silva resigned from Lula's government in 2008, upset at his support for major infrastructure projects in the Amazon. Their reconciliation is a high-profile endorsement to shore up his center-left coalition ahead of an Oct. 2 vote.
Her support for Lula also shows how even environmentalists skeptical of his ties to Brazilian agribusiness have closed ranks behind him, in an urgent push to change policies that have sent deforestation soaring under President Jair Bolsonaro.
Silva implemented environmental policies under Lula that helped to dramatically reduce destruction of the Amazon, but she joined a chorus of green critics upset with major infrastructure projects in the rainforest like the Belo Monte hydropower dam.
Even with that mixed record, Lula strikes a dramatic contrast with Bolsonaro, who has sharply scaled back enforcement of environmental laws in the Amazon, while calling for more mining and farming on protected lands. Deforestation of Brazil's rainforest has climbed to a 15-year high on his watch.
In an interview on Thursday, Silva, a three-time presidential candidate who once drew fierce criticism from Lula's leftist Workers' Party (PT), said "zeroing" deforestation in the Amazon was entirely within reach, a goal even more ambitious than Lula's stated target of "net zero" deforestation.
While net zero deforestation allows for cutting as long as an equal area is replanted elsewhere, no cutting whatsoever would be allowed under a regime of absolute zero deforestation.
"It's perfectly possible to return to zero deforestation, reviving a plan that already worked, updating that plan, putting the budgets and teams back together, strengthening our enforcement, monitoring and management systems," said Silva, a native of the isolated, rainforest state of Acre.
Last week, Silva publicly endorsed Lula at an event where he committed to a series of policy proposals, including a national authority coordinating the government's work on climate change.
Asked if she would consider accepting such a "climate czar" role, Silva left the door open.
"This is a decision for the president of the republic," she said. "In this moment, talking about ministries before winning is exactly what we don't have to do."
Lula's campaign has not been shy about environmental initiatives they are looking to implement.
Reuters reported in August that his representatives were reaching out to Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in a bid to present a united front of tropical rainforest nations at this year's United Nations climate talks.
His advisers have also previewed a policy of subsidizing loans to farmers who agree to meet certain targets related to sustainable agriculture practices.
Lula has built a strong lead over Bolsonaro in most polls. If neither candidate wins a majority of votes on Oct. 2, they will face off in a second-round vote on Oct. 30.
(Reporting by Flavia MarreiroWriting by Gram Slattery; Editing by Brad Haynes and Sandra Maler)
Fri, September 23, 2022
By Flavia Marreiro
SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Prominent Brazil environmentalist Marina Silva, who was environment minister under ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva before breaking with his party, told Reuters she is throwing her full support behind his campaign and did not rule out a role in government if he wins a third term.
Silva resigned from Lula's government in 2008, upset at his support for major infrastructure projects in the Amazon. Their reconciliation is a high-profile endorsement to shore up his center-left coalition ahead of an Oct. 2 vote.
Her support for Lula also shows how even environmentalists skeptical of his ties to Brazilian agribusiness have closed ranks behind him, in an urgent push to change policies that have sent deforestation soaring under President Jair Bolsonaro.
Silva implemented environmental policies under Lula that helped to dramatically reduce destruction of the Amazon, but she joined a chorus of green critics upset with major infrastructure projects in the rainforest like the Belo Monte hydropower dam.
Even with that mixed record, Lula strikes a dramatic contrast with Bolsonaro, who has sharply scaled back enforcement of environmental laws in the Amazon, while calling for more mining and farming on protected lands. Deforestation of Brazil's rainforest has climbed to a 15-year high on his watch.
In an interview on Thursday, Silva, a three-time presidential candidate who once drew fierce criticism from Lula's leftist Workers' Party (PT), said "zeroing" deforestation in the Amazon was entirely within reach, a goal even more ambitious than Lula's stated target of "net zero" deforestation.
While net zero deforestation allows for cutting as long as an equal area is replanted elsewhere, no cutting whatsoever would be allowed under a regime of absolute zero deforestation.
"It's perfectly possible to return to zero deforestation, reviving a plan that already worked, updating that plan, putting the budgets and teams back together, strengthening our enforcement, monitoring and management systems," said Silva, a native of the isolated, rainforest state of Acre.
Last week, Silva publicly endorsed Lula at an event where he committed to a series of policy proposals, including a national authority coordinating the government's work on climate change.
Asked if she would consider accepting such a "climate czar" role, Silva left the door open.
"This is a decision for the president of the republic," she said. "In this moment, talking about ministries before winning is exactly what we don't have to do."
Lula's campaign has not been shy about environmental initiatives they are looking to implement.
Reuters reported in August that his representatives were reaching out to Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in a bid to present a united front of tropical rainforest nations at this year's United Nations climate talks.
His advisers have also previewed a policy of subsidizing loans to farmers who agree to meet certain targets related to sustainable agriculture practices.
Lula has built a strong lead over Bolsonaro in most polls. If neither candidate wins a majority of votes on Oct. 2, they will face off in a second-round vote on Oct. 30.
(Reporting by Flavia MarreiroWriting by Gram Slattery; Editing by Brad Haynes and Sandra Maler)
Simone Iglesias
Fri, September 23, 2022
(Bloomberg) -- President Jair Bolsonaro’s efforts to reduce his rejection among women are falling flat, posing a major obstacle to his re-election bid just nine days before Brazilians go to the polls.
The former army captain, known for his macho bravado and embrace of traditional family values, has plateaued with just 29% of the female vote, according to a widely-watched Datafolha poll published late on Thursday. His leftist challenger, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, saw his support among them grow to 49% in the same survey.
Women make up about 52% of the Brazilian electorate. In 2018, a slight majority of them gave Bolsonaro a vote of confidence, according to exit polls. Since then, however, their support for the conservative leader slumped as they disapproved of his government, particularly his botched handling of the pandemic and his pro-gun policies.
Advised by marketing professionals, the president has been trying to soften his rhetoric to win over female voters. It worked briefly, with Bolsonaro’s image among women improving in July after he launched his re-election bid hand-in-hand with his evangelical wife at a large televised event in Rio de Janeiro.
The so-called “first-lady effect,” which resonated more with evangelical women, has apparently run its course: Bolsonaro has remained stuck with the same level of female support since September, according to the past three Datafolha polls.
Hurting that marketing strategy was the president himself: He attacked a female journalist during a televised debate in August and made cringe-worthy comments about his sexual performance right after kissing his wife at a major campaign rally in September.
Conservative, Evangelical
At an event organized by female supporters that same month, the president defended his pro-gun policies over the landmark Maria da Penha law that punishes men more severely in cases of domestic violence.
“Do you prefer a law or a gun to protect yourselves?,” he asked at the event in the Southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, his stronghold.
Women who vote for Bolsonaro are usually Christian evangelicals who support conservative and traditional family values, and who despise the feminist agenda, said Deysi Cioccari, a political science professor with the Pontifical Catholic University of Sao Paulo.
U.S. tells Lula it plans to quickly recognize Brazil election winner, sources say
A man runs past banners with photos of presidential candidates in Rio de Janeiro
Lisandra Paraguassu and Gabriel Stargardter
Fri, September 23, 2022
By Lisandra Paraguassu and Gabriel Stargardter
BRASILIA/RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) -U.S. diplomats have assured Brazil's leading presidential candidate, leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, that they will swiftly recognize the winner of next month's election, two sources told Reuters, seeking to avert any attempt to contest a legitimate result or sow chaos after the vote.
With just days to go until the first-round vote on Oct. 2, Lula is ahead in the polls against President Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist who has sought to discredit Brazil's electronic voting system. Critics fear Bolsonaro may follow the example of former U.S. President Donald Trump and refuse to accept an electoral defeat.
One of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss the confidential talks, said that in a meeting on Wednesday, Lula asked Douglas Koneff, the top U.S. diplomat in Brazil, for a quick U.S. recognition if he does win, either in the first-round vote or in an Oct. 30 runoff.
Lula was told that Washington plans to immediately recognize the results, regardless of who wins, setting an example for other nations to follow suit and minimize the chance of a contested result, the source added.
Lula foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim heard similar assurances on Thursday when he met with a group of diplomats from Latin America and the Caribbean, the other source said. A third source said many European countries are also planning for swift recognition of Brazil's election results.
In response to a request for comment, a U.S. State Department spokesperson did not mention the Lula meeting, but said in a statement that get-togethers with presidential candidates "do not imply support for a particular individual, party, or platform." The spokesperson added that the State Department "trusts in the strength of Brazil's democratic institutions."
Still scarred by the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters, the administration of President Joe Biden has grown increasingly concerned with Bolsonaro's baseless allegations of electoral fraud, sending high-level delegations to Brasilia to urge him to commit to democratic norms.
Reuters reported in May that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency director last year told senior Brazilian officials that Bolsonaro should stop casting doubt on the voting system.
One of the sources said that in the meeting with Koneff, Lula thanked the United States for having expressed faith in Brazil's voting system.
(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu and Gabriel StargardterAdditional reporting by Anthony BoadleEditing by Brad Haynes, Alistair Bell and Leslie Adler)
A man runs past banners with photos of presidential candidates in Rio de Janeiro
Lisandra Paraguassu and Gabriel Stargardter
Fri, September 23, 2022
By Lisandra Paraguassu and Gabriel Stargardter
BRASILIA/RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) -U.S. diplomats have assured Brazil's leading presidential candidate, leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, that they will swiftly recognize the winner of next month's election, two sources told Reuters, seeking to avert any attempt to contest a legitimate result or sow chaos after the vote.
With just days to go until the first-round vote on Oct. 2, Lula is ahead in the polls against President Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist who has sought to discredit Brazil's electronic voting system. Critics fear Bolsonaro may follow the example of former U.S. President Donald Trump and refuse to accept an electoral defeat.
One of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss the confidential talks, said that in a meeting on Wednesday, Lula asked Douglas Koneff, the top U.S. diplomat in Brazil, for a quick U.S. recognition if he does win, either in the first-round vote or in an Oct. 30 runoff.
Lula was told that Washington plans to immediately recognize the results, regardless of who wins, setting an example for other nations to follow suit and minimize the chance of a contested result, the source added.
Lula foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim heard similar assurances on Thursday when he met with a group of diplomats from Latin America and the Caribbean, the other source said. A third source said many European countries are also planning for swift recognition of Brazil's election results.
In response to a request for comment, a U.S. State Department spokesperson did not mention the Lula meeting, but said in a statement that get-togethers with presidential candidates "do not imply support for a particular individual, party, or platform." The spokesperson added that the State Department "trusts in the strength of Brazil's democratic institutions."
Still scarred by the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters, the administration of President Joe Biden has grown increasingly concerned with Bolsonaro's baseless allegations of electoral fraud, sending high-level delegations to Brasilia to urge him to commit to democratic norms.
Reuters reported in May that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency director last year told senior Brazilian officials that Bolsonaro should stop casting doubt on the voting system.
One of the sources said that in the meeting with Koneff, Lula thanked the United States for having expressed faith in Brazil's voting system.
(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu and Gabriel StargardterAdditional reporting by Anthony BoadleEditing by Brad Haynes, Alistair Bell and Leslie Adler)
Lula slightly boosts lead over Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil first round -poll
Lula holds rally "Todos Juntos pelo Rio Grande do Sul"
Lula holds rally "Todos Juntos pelo Rio Grande do Sul"
(All Together for Rio Grande do Sul) in Porto Alegre
Thu, September 22, 2022
SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's presidential frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly boosted his lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro to 14 percentage points in a poll published on Thursday by pollster Datafolha, less than two weeks before the Oct. 2 first-round vote.
The Datafolha survey showed Lula with 47% voter support versus 33% for Bolsonaro in the election's first round, compared with 45% and 33%, respectively, in the previous poll.
In an expected second-round run-off, Lula would garner the support of 54% of voters versus 38% for Bolsonaro, a 16 point advantage, according to the poll, the same result from a week ago.
Bolsonaro's approval rating edged up to 32%, compared to 30% one week ago; and still above the 22% he held in December, after which his popularity ticked up thanks to welfare programs and measures to tackle inflation.
His disapproval came in at 44%, according to the poll, the same result from one week ago but down from the 53% seen in December.
Datafolha conducted 6,754 in-person interviews between Sept. 20-22. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points up or down.
(Reporting by Peter Frontini and Pedro Fonseca; Editing by David Alire Garcia and Christian Plumb)
Thu, September 22, 2022
SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's presidential frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly boosted his lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro to 14 percentage points in a poll published on Thursday by pollster Datafolha, less than two weeks before the Oct. 2 first-round vote.
The Datafolha survey showed Lula with 47% voter support versus 33% for Bolsonaro in the election's first round, compared with 45% and 33%, respectively, in the previous poll.
In an expected second-round run-off, Lula would garner the support of 54% of voters versus 38% for Bolsonaro, a 16 point advantage, according to the poll, the same result from a week ago.
Bolsonaro's approval rating edged up to 32%, compared to 30% one week ago; and still above the 22% he held in December, after which his popularity ticked up thanks to welfare programs and measures to tackle inflation.
His disapproval came in at 44%, according to the poll, the same result from one week ago but down from the 53% seen in December.
Datafolha conducted 6,754 in-person interviews between Sept. 20-22. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points up or down.
(Reporting by Peter Frontini and Pedro Fonseca; Editing by David Alire Garcia and Christian Plumb)
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