Nelson: With divisive candidates like these, UCP better off without a leader

Author of the article: Chris Nelson • For The Calgary Herald
Publishing date: Sep 08, 2022 • 

From left, candidates Rajan Sawhney, Travis Toews and Danielle Smith take part in the United Conservative Party of Alberta’s final leadership debate, in Edmonton on Tuesday, August 30, 2022. PHOTO BY GREG SOUTHAM/POSTMEDIA

Only in the bizarre world of Alberta politics could a ruling party stand a better chance of retaining power if it didn’t have an actual leader.

That’s the weird situation we’re in during these waning days of a glorious summer. Because no matter who comes out a-top of this current inside-the-party contest to replace Jason Kenney as premier, there’s likely to be a subsequent drop in general UCP support among regular Albertans.

This isn’t what usually happens, of course. Normally new leaders, alongside their respective parties, enjoy a short but sweet honeymoon period, where hope briefly trumps experience among potential voters.

This isn’t the case here in Alberta. Even those seeking to replace Kenney have now dropped any pretence this leadership contest will inspire unity by healing the party’s gaping wounds and thus readying it for the looming provincial election battle.

The split that entrapped Ottawa-knowing Kenney has actually widened, so whoever wins faces an immediate cabal of internal opposition that won’t simply dissipate because the party vote went against them. The knives won’t require unsheathing; they’re already firmly in hand, poised for use by those whose candidate doesn’t emerge triumphant when the vote is counted in about four weeks.

Were it not for that little conundrum, then the UCP might feel rather confident of actually holding onto power, given our economy is booming and those dreary COVID wars, so bedevilling for the Kenney government, are at least now relegated to the nasty skirmish level.

Ah, but then it wouldn’t be the Tories unless they managed to shoot themselves in the foot. They’ve been at it so long in Alberta it’s a wonder anyone in the party has got a single toe left to stand upon.

Long gone are those halcyon days when they could run an election campaign with the name of their leader proudly emblazoned upon every candidate’s lawn sign. And not even the entire name — yep, remember those “Ralph’s Team” banners covering front yards back in 2001, as Klein’s government won a third mandate with a stunning 74 of the 83 seats on offer, capturing 62 per cent of the vote?

Five years later, those proud if brazen signs were probably stored facedown in deserted backrooms, as the party knowingly knifed the man — yes, the one so recently heralded provincewide simply as Ralph — in his suddenly vulnerable back.

Hindsight’s 20/20 of course. But maybe the die was cast that day and all that has happened since — the splitting away of the Wild Rose bunch, the rise of Edmonton as an NDP fortress, the realization of the New Democrats’ impossible dream of actually governing — flowed from such a pivotal moment.

Regardless, those turbulent Tory waters haven’t subsided. Not in the least. In fact, we’re now approaching the Class VI rapids stage.

Yes, here we have someone now considered the leadership contender to beat, Danielle Smith, not only taking umbrage with the current premier after he slated her controversial Sovereignty Act plans but also managing to drag the Queen into the brouhaha.

Yes, Her Majesty’s representative in Alberta, Lt.-Gov. Salma Lakhani, drew Smith’s ire after suggesting she might not sign that same proposed legislation into law if it contravened the Canadian Constitution. (Come on, give us newspaper columnists credit: notoriety pays our bills.)

Anyhow, with all this going on, it’s a near certainty the UCP will remain as united as that 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzle poured straight from its box, no matter who becomes our new premier.

Yet most Albertans, I still suspect, would rather the Tories govern than Rachel Notley’s rambunctious lot. Run a poll without any named UCP leader and the NDP would likely finish second.

But, once you fill in that blank, those Tory numbers will drift downward, no matter which name gets that ink.

Oh, how times change. Two decades ago the Tories rode to power on the back of a leader called Ralph. Today, they might ride into opposition on whoever’s name fills that slot.

Bizarre doesn’t begin to cover it.

Chris Nelson is a regular columnist for the Calgary Herald.