Support for independent Alberta drops to 23 per cent: poll
Author of the article: Josh Aldrich
Publishing date :Sep 02, 2022 •
Over 200,000 ballots for the UCP leadership vote are loaded
onto a courier truck at All Rush Print and Apparel in northeast
Calgary on Friday, September 2, 2022. Jim Wells/Postmedia
UCP leadership candidates flirting with the separation factions of the party are playing with fire.
According to a poll released by Research Co. on Friday, only 23 per cent of Albertans support the province becoming an independent country. The total has dropped two percentage points since it was last conducted in February 2021. Seventy per cent of respondents oppose the idea.
Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., said the rhetoric behind ideas like the Sovereignty Act may be good for selling memberships, but it is a short-sighted play.
“It’s the kind of thing that generates headlines, particularly within the context of a leadership race,” said Canseco. “But it’s not the kind of thing that is going to attract mainstream Alberta voters to say, ‘I’m going to get a membership of the UCP because this is exactly what I want to see happening.'”
The online poll was conducted Aug. 21-23 and received 700 adult respondents. It has a margin of error of 3.7 per cent and is statistically representative of the province and different demographics.
Several leading UCP leadership candidates have tried to capitalize on a sense of western alienation among their supporters. Brian Jean has promised a level of autonomy from Ottawa while perceived frontrunner Danielle Smith has made waves with her Sovereignty Act. Smith’s proposal would allow Alberta to opt out of federal legislation if deemed not in the best interest of the province. She says the act would be constructed with the collaboration of the UCP caucus.
On Thursday, Alberta Lt.-Gov. Salma Lakhani said her office would independently evaluate whether such legislation would be constitutional before signing it into law.
Premier Jason Kenney, whose impending departure prompted the leadership race, doubled down during a Friday morning radio show on previous references to the proposed act as “nuts,” this time characterizing it as “cockamamie.”
“It’s really the anarchy act or, as one conservative constitutional scholar puts it, the Alberta suicide act,” Kenney told Edmonton radio station CHED.
He said the act would be without precedent in Canadian history and would be a blow to investor confidence.
“If the government proposes (a law) saying that we will rip up contracts, we won’t enforce court orders, we’ll ignore the rulings of the Supreme Court, we’ll choose which laws we enforce, we’ll ignore the Constitution, well, what investor in their right mind would put money at risk in Alberta?”
The comments caused Smith to respond later on Friday, calling for Lakhani and Kenney to walk back the comments.
In a news release, Smith said Lakhani does not have the authority to refuse assent to bills democratically passed in the provincial legislature.
“Never in our Province’s history has an outgoing leader of a Party so brazenly and inappropriately inserted himself into the election of his successor,” she said.
“I am also concerned that the Premier appears to be using the powers and resources of his office for political purposes and truly hope that neither he, nor Justin Trudeau, were involved with the remarks given by the Lieutenant Governor yesterday. Such influence would be inappropriate in the extreme.”
The challenge for the eventual successor to Kenney is to also secure a provincial election victory next year.
UCP leadership candidates flirting with the separation factions of the party are playing with fire.
According to a poll released by Research Co. on Friday, only 23 per cent of Albertans support the province becoming an independent country. The total has dropped two percentage points since it was last conducted in February 2021. Seventy per cent of respondents oppose the idea.
Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., said the rhetoric behind ideas like the Sovereignty Act may be good for selling memberships, but it is a short-sighted play.
“It’s the kind of thing that generates headlines, particularly within the context of a leadership race,” said Canseco. “But it’s not the kind of thing that is going to attract mainstream Alberta voters to say, ‘I’m going to get a membership of the UCP because this is exactly what I want to see happening.'”
The online poll was conducted Aug. 21-23 and received 700 adult respondents. It has a margin of error of 3.7 per cent and is statistically representative of the province and different demographics.
Several leading UCP leadership candidates have tried to capitalize on a sense of western alienation among their supporters. Brian Jean has promised a level of autonomy from Ottawa while perceived frontrunner Danielle Smith has made waves with her Sovereignty Act. Smith’s proposal would allow Alberta to opt out of federal legislation if deemed not in the best interest of the province. She says the act would be constructed with the collaboration of the UCP caucus.
On Thursday, Alberta Lt.-Gov. Salma Lakhani said her office would independently evaluate whether such legislation would be constitutional before signing it into law.
Premier Jason Kenney, whose impending departure prompted the leadership race, doubled down during a Friday morning radio show on previous references to the proposed act as “nuts,” this time characterizing it as “cockamamie.”
“It’s really the anarchy act or, as one conservative constitutional scholar puts it, the Alberta suicide act,” Kenney told Edmonton radio station CHED.
He said the act would be without precedent in Canadian history and would be a blow to investor confidence.
“If the government proposes (a law) saying that we will rip up contracts, we won’t enforce court orders, we’ll ignore the rulings of the Supreme Court, we’ll choose which laws we enforce, we’ll ignore the Constitution, well, what investor in their right mind would put money at risk in Alberta?”
The comments caused Smith to respond later on Friday, calling for Lakhani and Kenney to walk back the comments.
In a news release, Smith said Lakhani does not have the authority to refuse assent to bills democratically passed in the provincial legislature.
“Never in our Province’s history has an outgoing leader of a Party so brazenly and inappropriately inserted himself into the election of his successor,” she said.
“I am also concerned that the Premier appears to be using the powers and resources of his office for political purposes and truly hope that neither he, nor Justin Trudeau, were involved with the remarks given by the Lieutenant Governor yesterday. Such influence would be inappropriate in the extreme.”
The challenge for the eventual successor to Kenney is to also secure a provincial election victory next year.
Support for independence was at 21 per cent in Calgary, 24 per cent in Edmonton and 29 per cent in rural Alberta. Support did grow depending on how many provinces joined in separation to 24 per cent with the other Prairie provinces and to 30 per cent with B.C.’s inclusion. Canseco noted it is not a concept that has wide support on Canada’s West Coast, generally tracking at 10-15 per cent when the question has been asked.
The most revealing part of the survey was on identity, with 45 per cent of UCP supporters viewing themselves as Albertans first and Canadians second and only 17 per cent of NDP supporters carrying this view.
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Canseco said this has the potential to be a wedge issue for the electorate and could drive enough supporters to other options to split the vote in critical ridings, and allow the NDP to pick up more seats.
“So there’s that tendency for the UCP voters who say, ‘Well, I’m not really going through with Danielle Smith and the stuff she’s talking about related to our place in the country, maybe I look at the Alberta Party as an option.'”
jaldrich@postmedia.com
Twitter: @JoshAldrich03
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