Rick Bell - 6h ago
A week to go.
UCP leadership candidate Danielle Smith speaks at a campaign rally in Chestermere on Tuesday, August 9, 2022.© Provided by Calgary Sun
It’s not impossible.
It’s “almost impossible.” It’s “extremely difficult” for anybody to catch UCP leadership frontrunner Danielle Smith.
So says Hamish Marshall of ONE Persuasion.
He headed up the latest nose-count of the race where the winner next week becomes UCP leader and premier.
It is the last poll of this kind, unless some candidate has numbers stuffed in their back pocket.
It is a nose-count commissioned by the camp of UCP leadership frontrunner Danielle Smith.
It is a survey of 1,603 souls from the actual UCP membership list and the results came out of the field Tuesday.
As your scribbler always says, you can take it or leave it.
It might be in the ballpark of reality Oct. 6.
Or there could be a big surprise and the so-called smart money will lose their shirts.
So let’s go.
First, a real big number everybody has wanted to see.
Of those polled, 84.6% have voted.
That’s more than four out of five.
Of those who have already voted, it’s Smith 45%. Travis Toews 28%. Brian Jean 11%. Rebecca Schulz 6%. Todd Loewen 5%, and Leela Aheer and Rajan Sawhney with lower percentages.
The first choice for all decided voters is almost the same. Smith 45%. Toews 27.5%. Jean 11.5%. Schulz 6.1%. Loewen 6%, with Aheer and Sawhney further behind.
Now some people have asked, so your scribbler asks.
Could there be some kind of surprise where someone overtakes Smith when leadership candidates drop out of the race and the second choices of their supporters are counted?
Marshall, who ran the leadership campaign of former federal Conservative boss Andrew Scheer, points out Smith’s first round support is so high the finish line is not far away.
UCP leadership hopefuls show united front against Smith's Sovereignty Act
The poll does look at candidate second choices for leader.
Aheer and Sawhney numbers are low.
Related video: Who were the winners and losers of the final UCP leadership debate?
Who were the winners and losers of the final UCP leadership debate?
Aheer’s seconds go to Toews and Jean more than Smith.
Sawhney’s number twos go to Toews and Jean slightly more than Smith.
Half of Loewen’s second choices go to Smith.
Half of Schulz’s second choices go to Toews.
It’s not enough to derail Smith.
Marshall says if the frontrunner was at lower than 40% on the first ballot, maybe even lower than 35%, then it could be different story.
Marshall says by Round 5 of the balloting Smith will be at 51.2%, Toews at 34.1% and Jean at 14.7%.
Even if it was just Smith against Toews, Smith would still win. She just doesn’t need much to get 50% plus one.
As for the Sovereignty Act, 54% of UCP members polled back it and don’t want to give Ottawa an inch.
Another 15.7% support the proposed new law for “Ottawa’s most egregious violations of the constitution.”
A little more than six out of 10 members polled agree with changing the province’s human rights law to prohibit discrimination of those choosing not to get a COVID shot or booster.
Just wait. There is a second poll by the same outfit, with 750 adult Albertans counted.
This is the general public.
It’s from mid-September.
The horse race. UCP 44.6%. NDP 39.8%. The rest are other parties.
On the Sovereignty Act, Albertans are less enthusiastic backers of the Smith brainwave than UCP members.
Fewer than half, 40.8%, support the Sovereignty Act in some circumstances.
Almost a third, that’s 31.7%, need to know more before deciding.
“Should Danielle Smith become premier she’s got an opportunity to sell the idea to Albertans,” says nose-counter Marshall.
On whether Alberta’s human rights law should be changed so it would be illegal to discriminate against the unvaccinated, 41.2% say Yes.
Again, different numbers than the UCP membership.
“It’s not a giant surprise UCP members are generally more libertarian than the public as a whole,” says the pollster.
Then, last but surely not least, the nose-counter decides to have the top three leadership candidates square off against NDP leader Rachel Notley.
One against one. A different question than the poll in the last column.
This number crunch finds Notley 50.9%. Jean 49.1%
Notley 53.2%. Toews 46.8%.
Notley 50.2%. Smith 49.8%.
Here’s what the collector of the political math sees.
“When push comes to shove, as what happens in an election, non-NDP voters are happy to consolidate around whoever the UCP leader is.”
Some would beg to differ. Some within the UCP. Some talking in coffee shops right now.
Jean is not waving the white flag.
He’s telling UCP members Notley is planning for her election win knowing Smith is the UCP leader less likely to defeat her.
Jean’s camp says Notley wants to take on Smith and the NDP know what buttons to push and won’t be as gentle on Smith as everyone in the UCP leadership race has been.
Well, in a few days, if Smith wins, we’ll all get a chance to see if that’s true.
rbell@postmedia.com
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