For Bulgaria, Borissov’s comeback is no path to stability
The country seems to be locked in a perpetual election cycle, and the cost is conspicuous — but there may be a silver lining.
Boyko Borissov's Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) is a proud member of the European People’s Party | Nikolay Doychinov/AFP via Getty Images
BY DIMITAR BECHEV
POLITICO EU
OCTOBER 6, 2022 4:03 AM
Dimitar Bechev is a lecturer at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the author of “Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe.”
Who won in the Bulgarian elections, the West or Russian President Vladimir Putin? Can Moscow take advantage of the chronic political instability in this Black Sea nation where pro-Russian sentiment runs deep?
These are the questions that have informed the international coverage of last week’s Bulgarian election, the fourth time the country has headed to the ballot box since April 2021.
No doubt, few will have failed to notice the surge of Revival — a populist outfit that swapped its opposition to COVID-19 vaccines for cheerleading Putin’s spetsoperatziya in Ukraine and saw its support double to 10.2 percent, making it the fourth largest faction in the next national assembly.
Yet, what’s really at stake in Bulgaria isn’t a fight between neo-imperialist Russia on the one hand and the European Union and NATO on the other. Rather, it’s all about whether voters are willing tolerate state capture and corruption, or cast their lot with reformists who have the guts and energy to wage a struggle for clean government. And to this question, the latest election failed to produce an answer.
On paper, all mainstream parties in Bulgaria strongly support membership in Western clubs: Led by Boyko Borissov, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), which came first with 25.3 percent, is a proud member of the European People’s Party (EPP); their likely coalition partner, the Movement of Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which is backed by Bulgarian Turks and Muslims and is both ready and willing to formalize its partnership with GERB, has a place in Renew Europe; We Continue the Change (PP), which is co-led by outgoing Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, gravitates toward the same liberal grouping; and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which joined Petkov’s cabinet along with the center-right Democratic Bulgaria (DB) coalition, is a member of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats faction in the European Parliament; with DB bringing together the EPP and the Greens.
Only Revival and, to a degree, Bulgarian Rise (BV) — a small new party seen as close to President Rumen Radev — could be classified as pro-Russian. And even if one were to add BSP to the count, as its grassroots do worship Putin, more than two-thirds of the seats in the new legislature are still going to “pro-Western” forces.
Similarly, while the Kremlin’s anti-Western narratives do have purchase in Bulgarian society, the public and most elites are pro-EU and NATO too. It’s a no-brainer: The billions in subsidies pouring into Bulgaria and the freedom of movement are the lifeblood of the country’s economy, politics and society. Meanwhile, NATO is the ultimate guarantor of national security, even for those who, like Radev, believe Sofia is better off keeping a low profile in the ongoing war.
The issue is what belonging to the West actually means.
OCTOBER 6, 2022 4:03 AM
Dimitar Bechev is a lecturer at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the author of “Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe.”
Who won in the Bulgarian elections, the West or Russian President Vladimir Putin? Can Moscow take advantage of the chronic political instability in this Black Sea nation where pro-Russian sentiment runs deep?
These are the questions that have informed the international coverage of last week’s Bulgarian election, the fourth time the country has headed to the ballot box since April 2021.
No doubt, few will have failed to notice the surge of Revival — a populist outfit that swapped its opposition to COVID-19 vaccines for cheerleading Putin’s spetsoperatziya in Ukraine and saw its support double to 10.2 percent, making it the fourth largest faction in the next national assembly.
Yet, what’s really at stake in Bulgaria isn’t a fight between neo-imperialist Russia on the one hand and the European Union and NATO on the other. Rather, it’s all about whether voters are willing tolerate state capture and corruption, or cast their lot with reformists who have the guts and energy to wage a struggle for clean government. And to this question, the latest election failed to produce an answer.
On paper, all mainstream parties in Bulgaria strongly support membership in Western clubs: Led by Boyko Borissov, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), which came first with 25.3 percent, is a proud member of the European People’s Party (EPP); their likely coalition partner, the Movement of Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which is backed by Bulgarian Turks and Muslims and is both ready and willing to formalize its partnership with GERB, has a place in Renew Europe; We Continue the Change (PP), which is co-led by outgoing Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, gravitates toward the same liberal grouping; and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which joined Petkov’s cabinet along with the center-right Democratic Bulgaria (DB) coalition, is a member of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats faction in the European Parliament; with DB bringing together the EPP and the Greens.
Only Revival and, to a degree, Bulgarian Rise (BV) — a small new party seen as close to President Rumen Radev — could be classified as pro-Russian. And even if one were to add BSP to the count, as its grassroots do worship Putin, more than two-thirds of the seats in the new legislature are still going to “pro-Western” forces.
Similarly, while the Kremlin’s anti-Western narratives do have purchase in Bulgarian society, the public and most elites are pro-EU and NATO too. It’s a no-brainer: The billions in subsidies pouring into Bulgaria and the freedom of movement are the lifeblood of the country’s economy, politics and society. Meanwhile, NATO is the ultimate guarantor of national security, even for those who, like Radev, believe Sofia is better off keeping a low profile in the ongoing war.
The issue is what belonging to the West actually means.
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