André Pratte: François Legault limps to victory in Quebec election POLLING SAYS
There was a time when Legault enjoyed stratospheric support, but those days are past
Author of the article: André Pratte
Publishing date: Oct 01, 2022 •
Coalition Avenir du Quebec leader Francois Legault speaks to the Chamber of Commerce while campaigning Wednesday, September 28, 2022 in Montreal. Quebec votes in the provincial election Oct. 3, 2022.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz
At the beginning of the provincial election campaign in Quebec one month ago, pundits and pollsters agreed that unless “something extraordinary” happened, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) would be re-elected with a huge majority of seats, perhaps more than 100 out of the National Assembly’s 125 seats. Well, what do you know, “something extraordinary” did happen: Legault ran one of the worst campaigns ever seen in the province’s modern history.
This coming Monday is election day. According to the latest Léger poll, the CAQ will receive around 37 per cent of the votes. This is exactly the percentage they got in 2018. It will be enough for a second majority mandate, but maybe not the landslide that appeared inevitable before the campaign.
For inexplicable reasons, from day one on the campaign trail, Legault accumulated missteps, notably controversial assertions on immigration that he had to backpedal from. More significant, most days, the premier appeared to be angry and impatient, as if he found the campaign a complete waste of time. The frustrated body language was in evidence during both televised debates, after which Legault’s frequent frowns became the stuff of newspaper cartoonists.
If the polls are correct, six voters out of 10 will side with one of the four major opposition parties. The fact that there are so many parties vying for non-CAQ votes ensures that Legault, even with less than 40 per cent of the vote, will govern from a comfortable position, facing a dispersed opposition.
The PQ survives
Commentators were also forecasting the disappearance of the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), the party founded by René Lévesque. Few expected that the PQ’s young leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (often called by his initials PSPP) would have the best performance of all leaders, especially during the debates. PSPP ran a competent, positive campaign; the contrast with Legault was striking. Thanks to that performance, he apparently has succeeded in repatriating some sovereignist voters who were thinking of voting CAQ. Credited with 15 per cent of voting intentions, the PQ will probably win a couple of seats, enough to ensure the party’s survival.
Having harvested 25 per cent of the votes and 31 seats in 2018, the Liberal Party of Quebec sat as the Official Opposition in the last parliament. Led by Dominique Anglade, a brilliant engineer and MBA graduate from a Haitian immigrant family, the party is now forecast to lose most of the few predominantly French ridings it currently holds. The Liberals may well keep their Official Opposition status, but with so little support amongst the francophone population, they will have a credibility problem.
Ms. Anglade is running an energetic, enthusiastic campaign, but this appears to be insufficient to repair the damage done by some of her decisions well before the campaign started, especially her wavering position regarding the CAQ’s infamous language bill, bill 96.
The leftist Quebec Solidaire is the only party that could take away the Official Opposition status from the Liberals. However, despite the formidable talents of its co-leader, former student activist Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, the party has failed to significantly increase its support, which rests at 16 per cent. A promise to tax buyers of SUVs, in the name of fighting climate change, did not go over well with many voters.
The Conservative Party of Québec, led by former talk radio host Eric Duhaime, appears to have topped at 15 per cent of voting intentions. It remains to be seen whether this is enough to award the Conservatives with one or two seats in the Assembly. In any case, Quebec politicians will have to find a way to channel the anger and frustration felt by Duhaime’s many supporters. As seen in other countries, ignoring such popular feelings leads to unfortunate scenarios.
The CAQ’s slogan is “Continuons” (Let’s continue). Many are asking, considering Legault’s obvious lack of enthusiasm, “Continue doing what?” The premier has been unable to provide a convincing answer to that question. Now that the government has dealt with the language (bill 96) and religious symbols (bill 21) issues, the CAQ appears to wonder what to do next besides running the government’s daily operations as competently as possible. This is one reason why, even if his party is chosen to form the government again, the question of Mr. Legault’s succession will soon be raised inside and outside the party.
Dominique Anglade is another leader who could face leadership challenges, depending on her party’s score on election night. Potential successors have already been preparing, and if the Liberals fare poorly, the ambitious ones will stand ready at the starting block. However, by running a strong campaign, Anglade probably saved her own seat and her chances of staying on as leader.
There was a time when Premier Legault enjoyed stratospheric support. This was due to the CAQ leader’s exceptional communication skills during the pandemic. It is ironic that that record level of support has dwindled to normal proportions due to Legault’s poor communications performance during the campaign.
In the end, despite that mediocre showing, a CAQ victory is by far the most likely scenario. The reason why was summarized by a Laval voter interviewed by Radio-Canada this week: “Mr. Legault managed the pandemic as best he could; he deserves a pick-me-up.”
André Pratte is a senior fellow at Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa.
At the beginning of the provincial election campaign in Quebec one month ago, pundits and pollsters agreed that unless “something extraordinary” happened, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) would be re-elected with a huge majority of seats, perhaps more than 100 out of the National Assembly’s 125 seats. Well, what do you know, “something extraordinary” did happen: Legault ran one of the worst campaigns ever seen in the province’s modern history.
This coming Monday is election day. According to the latest Léger poll, the CAQ will receive around 37 per cent of the votes. This is exactly the percentage they got in 2018. It will be enough for a second majority mandate, but maybe not the landslide that appeared inevitable before the campaign.
For inexplicable reasons, from day one on the campaign trail, Legault accumulated missteps, notably controversial assertions on immigration that he had to backpedal from. More significant, most days, the premier appeared to be angry and impatient, as if he found the campaign a complete waste of time. The frustrated body language was in evidence during both televised debates, after which Legault’s frequent frowns became the stuff of newspaper cartoonists.
If the polls are correct, six voters out of 10 will side with one of the four major opposition parties. The fact that there are so many parties vying for non-CAQ votes ensures that Legault, even with less than 40 per cent of the vote, will govern from a comfortable position, facing a dispersed opposition.
The PQ survives
Commentators were also forecasting the disappearance of the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), the party founded by René Lévesque. Few expected that the PQ’s young leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (often called by his initials PSPP) would have the best performance of all leaders, especially during the debates. PSPP ran a competent, positive campaign; the contrast with Legault was striking. Thanks to that performance, he apparently has succeeded in repatriating some sovereignist voters who were thinking of voting CAQ. Credited with 15 per cent of voting intentions, the PQ will probably win a couple of seats, enough to ensure the party’s survival.
Having harvested 25 per cent of the votes and 31 seats in 2018, the Liberal Party of Quebec sat as the Official Opposition in the last parliament. Led by Dominique Anglade, a brilliant engineer and MBA graduate from a Haitian immigrant family, the party is now forecast to lose most of the few predominantly French ridings it currently holds. The Liberals may well keep their Official Opposition status, but with so little support amongst the francophone population, they will have a credibility problem.
Ms. Anglade is running an energetic, enthusiastic campaign, but this appears to be insufficient to repair the damage done by some of her decisions well before the campaign started, especially her wavering position regarding the CAQ’s infamous language bill, bill 96.
The leftist Quebec Solidaire is the only party that could take away the Official Opposition status from the Liberals. However, despite the formidable talents of its co-leader, former student activist Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, the party has failed to significantly increase its support, which rests at 16 per cent. A promise to tax buyers of SUVs, in the name of fighting climate change, did not go over well with many voters.
The Conservative Party of Québec, led by former talk radio host Eric Duhaime, appears to have topped at 15 per cent of voting intentions. It remains to be seen whether this is enough to award the Conservatives with one or two seats in the Assembly. In any case, Quebec politicians will have to find a way to channel the anger and frustration felt by Duhaime’s many supporters. As seen in other countries, ignoring such popular feelings leads to unfortunate scenarios.
The CAQ’s slogan is “Continuons” (Let’s continue). Many are asking, considering Legault’s obvious lack of enthusiasm, “Continue doing what?” The premier has been unable to provide a convincing answer to that question. Now that the government has dealt with the language (bill 96) and religious symbols (bill 21) issues, the CAQ appears to wonder what to do next besides running the government’s daily operations as competently as possible. This is one reason why, even if his party is chosen to form the government again, the question of Mr. Legault’s succession will soon be raised inside and outside the party.
Dominique Anglade is another leader who could face leadership challenges, depending on her party’s score on election night. Potential successors have already been preparing, and if the Liberals fare poorly, the ambitious ones will stand ready at the starting block. However, by running a strong campaign, Anglade probably saved her own seat and her chances of staying on as leader.
There was a time when Premier Legault enjoyed stratospheric support. This was due to the CAQ leader’s exceptional communication skills during the pandemic. It is ironic that that record level of support has dwindled to normal proportions due to Legault’s poor communications performance during the campaign.
In the end, despite that mediocre showing, a CAQ victory is by far the most likely scenario. The reason why was summarized by a Laval voter interviewed by Radio-Canada this week: “Mr. Legault managed the pandemic as best he could; he deserves a pick-me-up.”
André Pratte is a senior fellow at Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa.
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