Giorgia Meloni’s victory shows southern Europe is ripe for right-wing nationalism — but can Vox take advantage?
In Andalusia, Spain's far-right party Vox fell short of expectations and its lead candidate Macarena Olona was forced to leave | Cristina Quicler/AFP via Getty Images
BY GUY HEDGECOE
NOVEMBER 14, 2022 4:00 AM CET
MADRID — Spain’s far-right Vox is casting envious glances across the Mediterranean at Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party.
Meloni’s election victory in September was a huge boost for Vox, which shares ideological ground with Brothers of Italy and has a strong relationship with its leader.
Vox chief Santiago Abascal tweeted a montage of pictures of himself with Meloni on the day after Italians went to the polls, and praised her for “showing the way to a Europe that is proud, free and of sovereign nations, capable of cooperating for the security and prosperity of all.”
His party could hardly have hoped for a clearer signal that Southern Europe is ripe for right-wing nationalism.
But Meloni’s rise comes as Vox is grappling with a crisis that has caused many to question its future.
The hectic electoral year about to begin in Spain will either show the party is capable of following the example of Brothers of Italy and entering national government, or confirm it to be a populist aberration in decline.
Vox announced itself as a political force in the 2018 regional election in Andalusia, after running on an ultra-nationalist, anti-immigrant, fiercely unionist platform. The following year, it confirmed its rise by winning 52 seats in the national Congress, behind only the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the conservative Popular Party (PP). It subsequently made further advances on a local level, entering a coalition government with the PP in the region of Castile and León earlier this year.
But it was back in Andalusia where the scene of Vox’s first major disappointment took place, when the party fell well short of expectations by gaining only two new seats as the PP swept to a majority in June. That result triggered the departure of Vox’s lead candidate in the region, Macarena Olona, who has since waged a highly publicized war of words with her former party, while hinting that she plans to form a rival force of her own.
“For me, Vox is the past,” she told El País newspaper, accusing the party of spreading fake news and insults about her.
The writer and journalist Enric Juliana noted: “The Olona phenomenon is the first serious crack in a hermetically sealed party.”
The demotion in October of the Vox deputy leader, Javier Ortega Smith, has added to the sense of flux. A TV documentary, meanwhile, showed former Vox politicians alleging that the party had neo-Nazis in its ranks and was run by authoritarian hypocrites. Meanwhile, polls showed Vox to have suffered a dip, as the PP surged under leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who was appointed in April.
No senior Vox politicians were available to comment for this article. However, Rafael Bardají, a co-founder of Vox who holds no post in the party but is close to Abascal, acknowledges the sense of crisis. He attributes this in great part to the Andalusia result and Olona’s attacks. However, Bardají also believes Vox has become too comfortable as it hovers in polls close to 15 percent of the vote share.
“It’s gone from being a party that is virtually outside the system to forming part of institutional life,” said Bardají, who was a senior adviser to conservative ex-Prime Minister José María Aznar. “For example, Santiago Abascal only speaks in parliament. Spaniards don’t hear or follow what happens in parliament enough for it to be the best place from which to be an opposition party. He needs to get out onto the street more.”
Others see Vox as lacking a meaty issue to get its populist teeth into. Although the party has run an aggressive campaign against illegal migrants, targeting in particular North African minors, immigration was only ranked 16th in a recent study listing Spaniards’ biggest worries, behind the economy, corruption and the behavior of political parties.
Unlike other far-right parties in Europe, Vox’s rise was closely tied to its strident opposition to regional nationalism.
“Our rivals are the two forces which have caused the most damage to Spain in recent years: the left and separatism,” Vox’s parliamentary spokesman, Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, said recently. “And in some cases they are more than rivals, they are enemies.”
But the Catalan independence drive, which peaked in 2017, has faded from the political spotlight.
“Catalonia was the gasoline that fueled Vox’s rise,” said Miguel González, author of “Vox S.A.: El negocio del patriotismo español,” a biography of the party. “But the Catalan situation has calmed down and immigration doesn’t work [as a mobilizing issue].”
Nonetheless, Vox has been buoyed by support from its allies outside Spain. At a party rally in October, Donald Trump sent a video message congratulating Abascal for the “incredible job he does,” while Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe also appeared via video link.
But Vox’s most valued foreign ties are with Meloni, who also sent a video message to the event.
An initial flirtation with Matteo Salvini of the League several years ago was scuppered by the Italian’s support for Catalan nationalism. Instead, Vox courted Meloni, when she was still only polling in low single digits. Abascal has traveled to Rome to meet her and she has taken part in several events in Spain, among them a Vox rally in Marbella during the Andalusia election campaign, at which she delivered a fiery speech.
“With Meloni, since she saw that [Vox] gave her a certain amount of recognition, there has been a personal relationship there, more than a political one,” said Bardají.
Brothers of Italy and Vox are also both in the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) in the European Parliament, along with Poland’s Law and Justice party.
The next challenge for the Spanish party is municipal and regional elections to be held in May, followed by a general election by the end of 2023. However, Vox’s ambitions are more modest than those of its Italian and Polish allies, given that realistically it only looks capable of entering government as the junior partner of the conservative PP, assuming the two parties could secure a majority.
Bardají says that Abascal wants to secure a handful of ministerial posts for Vox overseeing policy areas that are close to its ultra-nationalist Catholic values, such as interior, justice and education.
In the meantime, González says that a deterioration of the economy could provide fertile ground for Vox to rebound from its current domestic woes.
“We are in a very uncertain economic situation,” he said. “Until now it has been the PP that has managed to capitalize on that much more than Vox. But a party like Vox feeds off social unrest and crisis.”
No comments:
Post a Comment