MINING IS NOT GREEN
We May Not Actually Need All That LithiumMolly Taft
Wed, January 25, 2023
Lithium mining in Chile’s Atacama desert.
Read any article about the clean energy revolution, and chances are you’ll run into some staggering numbers about how demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other minerals and metals is projected to rise over the next few decades.
But the future isn’t set in stone. The U.S. may need up to 90% less of these materials if it simply prioritizes things like public transit, urban walkability, and smaller cars, according to groundbreaking new research from the Climate and Community Project and University of California, Davis.
The International Energy Agency predicts that demand for lithium could rise by as much as 40 times by 2040; the U.S. alone by 2050 could need three times as much lithium as is currently produced on the global market. Transportation and electric vehicle batteries are a huge factor in these staggering numbers.
But there are some big problems with these materials and their production, from environmentally destructive mining practices to child and forced labor in supply chains to geopolitical conflict. A recent analysis found that over half of the world’s supply of these materials is on Indigenous lands, signaling some significant upcoming conflicts with corporations looking to profit from the increased demand.
Lithium and other minerals are also likely to become big targets for Republicans and politicians opposed to EV tax credits and other clean energy incentives. On Wednesday, Senator Joe Manchin, who has voiced opposition to EV tax credits in the past, introduced a bill mandating that all materials in an EV battery eligible for a tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act be mined either in the U.S. or in a country the U.S. has a free trade agreement with. Automakers say there’s a chance that, given all these requirements, no electric vehicle would actually be eligible for a tax credit.
But most of the forecasts that say we’re going to need huge amounts of materials like lithium are based on a future “that looks like the present except it’s electrified,” said Thea Riofrancos, an associate professor of political science at Providence College and one of the authors of the report. This one-to-one trade of gas vehicles for EVs—a vision that assumes Americans, especially, keep up with their big car obsession—is “easier, it feels more politically feasible, and it’s realistic” to the organizations doing the forecasting.
Riofrancos explained that industries that would stand to gain from a boom in electric vehicles—industries that are also producing their own forecasts—have a vested interest in seeing a car-heavy future.
“Auto companies and mining companies, the last companies on earth anyone would think of as being part of the climate solution, now have the opportunity to present themselves as climate saviors,” she said.
Riofrancos said the idea for this research was born from her own search for different modeling for a less car-heavy future. When she tried to find projections of pathways with different priorities in the U.S.—where there are fewer and smaller cars, denser and more easily navigable residential areas, and more public transit—she discovered they hadn’t yet been modeled in the context of demand for these minerals.
“Auto companies and mining companies... now have the opportunity to present themselves as climate saviors”
To do the modeling, Riofrancos and her research partners put together four scenarios for the U.S. to achieve net-zero emissions through 2050: a business-as-usual scenario, where electric vehicles simply replace the current supply of fossil fuel-dependent cars, and increasingly dramatic scenarios in which more people live in dense, walkable and bikeable areas; take improved public transit; and own fewer and smaller cars, while the government also implements aggressive recycling policies for electric car components. They then calculated the amount of lithium and other metals all these scenarios demand.
The results were surprising, even to Riofrancos. Policies that made cities more walkable and public transit better and more accessible could lower lithium demand between 18% and 66%, while simply limiting the size of EV batteries could cut demand by up to 42%. In the best-case scenario, where multiple types of these policies were implemented, demand for lithium in the U.S. could be more than 90% lower than current estimates.
The situations they lay out aren’t some sort of unrealistic utopian vision. Riofrancos stressed that even in their most aggressively low-car scenario, there are still electric vehicles on the road. “We were trying to keep this within the bounds of what could actually happen over the next 25 years,” she said. Limiting battery size, meanwhile, meant just limiting them to the types of cars popular in other developed nations. “The U.S. is going off on its own to be super big” when it comes to electric vehicles, Riofrancos said. (Ironically, the day before I spoke to Riofrancos, I had a conversation with a friend about the electric Hummer—which he was incredibly excited about, despite its absolutely gargantuan battery size.)
Ultimately, Riofrancos said, she hopes that the research at the very least shows that we have more options to get to net-zero carbon emissions than just over-reliance on EVs and the supply chain problems they bring.
“With just some federal or state level transit money, we could make a big difference in reducing the carbon emissions of transportation,” she said. “There are political challenges around getting Americans out of cars, but we should agree that the science says that that would help a lot to reduce emissions from transportation.”
Gizmodo
Here's a plan for cutting US demand for lithium by up to 90%
Lylla Younes
Thu, January 26, 2023
This story was first published by Grist.
The effort to shift the U.S. economy off fossil fuels and avoid the most disastrous impacts of climate change hinges on the third element of the periodic table. Lithium, the soft, silvery-white metal used in electric car batteries, was endowed by nature with miraculous properties. At around half a gram per cubic centimeter, it’s the lightest known metal and is extremely energy-dense, making it ideal for manufacturing batteries with long lifespans.
The problem is that lithium comes with its own set of troubles: Mining the metal is often devastating for the environment and the people who live nearby since it’s water-intensive and risks permanently damaging the land. The industry also has an outsize impact on Native American communities — three-quarters of all known U.S. lithium deposits are located near tribal land.
Solutions for soaring lithium demand
Demand for lithium is expected to skyrocket in the coming decades (by up to 4,000 percent, according to one estimate), which will require many new mines to meet it (more than 70 by 2025). These estimates assume the number of cars on the road will remain constant, so lithium demand will rise as gas guzzlers get replaced by electric vehicles. But what if the United States could design a policy that eliminates carbon emissions from the transportation sector without as much mining?
A new report from the Climate and Community Project, a progressive climate-policy think tank, offers a fix. In a paper out on Tuesday, the researchers estimate that the U.S. could decrease lithium demand by up to 90 percent by 2050 by expanding public transportation infrastructure, shrinking the size of electric vehicle batteries and maximizing lithium recycling. The group claims this report is the first to consider multiple pathways for getting the country’s cars and buses running on electricity and suppressing U.S. lithium demand at the same time.
“Conversations [about the dangers of mining] can lead folks to think that there’s a zero-sum trade-off: Either we address the climate crisis or we protect Indigenous rights and biodiversity,” said Thea Riofrancos, an associate professor of political science at Providence College and the lead author of the report. “This report asks the question: Is there a way to do both?”
Riofrancos and the other researchers modeled four scenarios for public transportation in the U.S. that would lead to different levels of lithium demand. In the baseline, the country follows the path it’s currently on, swapping out all gas cars for electric ones by 2050, with few other changes.
Fewer cars, more mass transit and personal mobility options
The other three scenarios consider what happens when more people are walking, biking or taking trains and buses. Cities grow denser, commutes shorten and public transportation expands and is electrified. Governments take away subsidies for owning cars, such as free parking, and limit on-street parking and lots. Assuming that the average battery size stays the same and eight-year battery warranties remain in place, lithium demand drops by 66 percent in the most ambitious scenario as compared to the U.S. staying on its current path. But even the more modest scenarios bring 18 and 41 percent drops in demand for the metal, respectively, largely thanks to expanding mass transit and denser urban areas that allow families to live without cars.
“The scenarios were really informed by what already exists in certain places,” said Kira McDonald, a Princeton University researcher. She and her colleagues used real-life examples for their estimates, looking at success stories in cities such as Vienna, which has slashed car use in recent years through car-free zones, bike-sharing and improvements to pedestrian comfort and safety. London, Lyon and Amsterdam have also all seen steep declines in vehicle ownership after rolling out low-emission zones and adding more bike lanes; in Paris, car use has fallen by about 45 percent since 1990.
Smaller EV batteries and more recycling
The researchers experimented with other variables that could influence lithium demand and were surprised to find that by reducing average battery sizes to 54 kilowatt-hours, close to the capacity of the Nissan Leaf, lithium demand fell as much as 42 percent, even when car use stayed on its current trajectory. While the global average battery is small, with a capacity of around 40 kWh, the bigger batteries used in the United States have an average capacity of around 70 kWh, and the report notes a trend toward even bigger batteries with higher capacities like the 130 kWh models found in some electric trucks and SUVs.
Riofrancos said there’s a way around building big batteries, while allowing that there are reasonable concerns about the availability of charging stations and the need for longer battery ranges in certain areas. “But the solution to that is to build more charging stations, not make enormous electric vehicles.”
Battery recycling — a nascent industry in the U.S. — could also reduce lithium demand, but it’s unlikely to help much for at least a decade, according to experts. Currently, there just aren’t a lot of electric-car batteries to recycle, as most of the early EVs are still on the roads, and some of the batteries that do putter out get reused for solar and wind energy storage. While the European Union will soon require new lithium-ion batteries to use some recycled parts, and China requires battery manufacturers to collaborate with recycling companies, the United States has no such requirements.
The Climate and Community Project report points out that recyclers have also had little reason to recover lithium, as it’s cheaper to mine. Even a fully up-and-running industry that recovers 98 percent of EV battery material could only meet about a third of lithium demand by 2050 if the country continues to rely on cars the way it does now — two-thirds would still come from the earth.
Getting Americans out of their cars, even their electric ones, would require sweeping changes to the country’s infrastructure, the fabric of urban areas and the very culture. Some have described the level of transformation required as unrealistic. But the researchers found examples of successful efforts in big cities around the world, even in the United States. Riofrancos pointed to free bus lines in Providence, Rhode Island, e-bike subsidies in Denver and efforts in other cities to scale back parking lots.
“The conversations are happening, but they’re not connected with congressional funding priorities at all,” Riofrancos said. She added that the Biden administration’s recently released transportation blueprint, with its focus on public transit and land-use planning, is out of step with its emphasis on promoting EVs and domestic lithium mining in the Inflation Reduction Act, the landmark climate legislation Biden signed into law last August.
“I think at this point the question is not whether we decarbonize, but how,” she said. “That’s still an open question, and I think we should be having a broader...social and political debate over the different ways forward on this.”
Lylla Younes
Thu, January 26, 2023
This story was first published by Grist.
The effort to shift the U.S. economy off fossil fuels and avoid the most disastrous impacts of climate change hinges on the third element of the periodic table. Lithium, the soft, silvery-white metal used in electric car batteries, was endowed by nature with miraculous properties. At around half a gram per cubic centimeter, it’s the lightest known metal and is extremely energy-dense, making it ideal for manufacturing batteries with long lifespans.
The problem is that lithium comes with its own set of troubles: Mining the metal is often devastating for the environment and the people who live nearby since it’s water-intensive and risks permanently damaging the land. The industry also has an outsize impact on Native American communities — three-quarters of all known U.S. lithium deposits are located near tribal land.
Solutions for soaring lithium demand
Demand for lithium is expected to skyrocket in the coming decades (by up to 4,000 percent, according to one estimate), which will require many new mines to meet it (more than 70 by 2025). These estimates assume the number of cars on the road will remain constant, so lithium demand will rise as gas guzzlers get replaced by electric vehicles. But what if the United States could design a policy that eliminates carbon emissions from the transportation sector without as much mining?
A new report from the Climate and Community Project, a progressive climate-policy think tank, offers a fix. In a paper out on Tuesday, the researchers estimate that the U.S. could decrease lithium demand by up to 90 percent by 2050 by expanding public transportation infrastructure, shrinking the size of electric vehicle batteries and maximizing lithium recycling. The group claims this report is the first to consider multiple pathways for getting the country’s cars and buses running on electricity and suppressing U.S. lithium demand at the same time.
“Conversations [about the dangers of mining] can lead folks to think that there’s a zero-sum trade-off: Either we address the climate crisis or we protect Indigenous rights and biodiversity,” said Thea Riofrancos, an associate professor of political science at Providence College and the lead author of the report. “This report asks the question: Is there a way to do both?”
Riofrancos and the other researchers modeled four scenarios for public transportation in the U.S. that would lead to different levels of lithium demand. In the baseline, the country follows the path it’s currently on, swapping out all gas cars for electric ones by 2050, with few other changes.
Fewer cars, more mass transit and personal mobility options
The other three scenarios consider what happens when more people are walking, biking or taking trains and buses. Cities grow denser, commutes shorten and public transportation expands and is electrified. Governments take away subsidies for owning cars, such as free parking, and limit on-street parking and lots. Assuming that the average battery size stays the same and eight-year battery warranties remain in place, lithium demand drops by 66 percent in the most ambitious scenario as compared to the U.S. staying on its current path. But even the more modest scenarios bring 18 and 41 percent drops in demand for the metal, respectively, largely thanks to expanding mass transit and denser urban areas that allow families to live without cars.
“The scenarios were really informed by what already exists in certain places,” said Kira McDonald, a Princeton University researcher. She and her colleagues used real-life examples for their estimates, looking at success stories in cities such as Vienna, which has slashed car use in recent years through car-free zones, bike-sharing and improvements to pedestrian comfort and safety. London, Lyon and Amsterdam have also all seen steep declines in vehicle ownership after rolling out low-emission zones and adding more bike lanes; in Paris, car use has fallen by about 45 percent since 1990.
Smaller EV batteries and more recycling
The researchers experimented with other variables that could influence lithium demand and were surprised to find that by reducing average battery sizes to 54 kilowatt-hours, close to the capacity of the Nissan Leaf, lithium demand fell as much as 42 percent, even when car use stayed on its current trajectory. While the global average battery is small, with a capacity of around 40 kWh, the bigger batteries used in the United States have an average capacity of around 70 kWh, and the report notes a trend toward even bigger batteries with higher capacities like the 130 kWh models found in some electric trucks and SUVs.
Riofrancos said there’s a way around building big batteries, while allowing that there are reasonable concerns about the availability of charging stations and the need for longer battery ranges in certain areas. “But the solution to that is to build more charging stations, not make enormous electric vehicles.”
Battery recycling — a nascent industry in the U.S. — could also reduce lithium demand, but it’s unlikely to help much for at least a decade, according to experts. Currently, there just aren’t a lot of electric-car batteries to recycle, as most of the early EVs are still on the roads, and some of the batteries that do putter out get reused for solar and wind energy storage. While the European Union will soon require new lithium-ion batteries to use some recycled parts, and China requires battery manufacturers to collaborate with recycling companies, the United States has no such requirements.
The Climate and Community Project report points out that recyclers have also had little reason to recover lithium, as it’s cheaper to mine. Even a fully up-and-running industry that recovers 98 percent of EV battery material could only meet about a third of lithium demand by 2050 if the country continues to rely on cars the way it does now — two-thirds would still come from the earth.
Getting Americans out of their cars, even their electric ones, would require sweeping changes to the country’s infrastructure, the fabric of urban areas and the very culture. Some have described the level of transformation required as unrealistic. But the researchers found examples of successful efforts in big cities around the world, even in the United States. Riofrancos pointed to free bus lines in Providence, Rhode Island, e-bike subsidies in Denver and efforts in other cities to scale back parking lots.
“The conversations are happening, but they’re not connected with congressional funding priorities at all,” Riofrancos said. She added that the Biden administration’s recently released transportation blueprint, with its focus on public transit and land-use planning, is out of step with its emphasis on promoting EVs and domestic lithium mining in the Inflation Reduction Act, the landmark climate legislation Biden signed into law last August.
“I think at this point the question is not whether we decarbonize, but how,” she said. “That’s still an open question, and I think we should be having a broader...social and political debate over the different ways forward on this.”
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