Matthew Mpoke Bigg
Sat, January 28, 2023
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant along the banks of the Dnipro River, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Aug. 13, 2022. (David Guttenfelder/The New York Times)
United Nations inspectors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine say explosions from the artillery war being waged nearby rattle the facility almost daily, raising concerns that the danger to the plant has not improved despite the U.N.’s pleas for Kyiv and Moscow to create a cease-fire zone around it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said Thursday that blasts had been heard near the facility “almost daily” for weeks. In addition to explosions heard Thursday, it said, eight “strong detonations” that rattled office windows at the plant had been heard the previous morning.
“Powerful explosions have been occurring outside the facility, indicating military activities in the vicinity of the site located on the front line of the ongoing conflict,” the International Atomic Energy Agency’s director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said in the statement Thursday.
Russian forces occupied the nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, near the start of their full-scale invasion 11 months ago. Since then, the U.N. nuclear watchdog has warned of the potential for a nuclear catastrophe as the security situation deteriorated.
Blasts at the plant over the summer, for which each side blamed the other, effectively turned it into a battle zone, and all of the facility’s six reactors have been shut down as a precaution because of the security situation.
Ukrainian authorities have for months accused Russia of using Zaporizhzhia’s large grounds, which are on the east bank of the wide Dnieper River, as a base from which to lob shells across the river at the city of Nikopol, just 10 miles away, and at other communities.
The agency stationed experts at the plant in September and also at Ukraine’s other nuclear facilities last week to monitor conditions and security and to provide technical assistance.
Grossi held talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine last week to again press for a protection zone around the Zaporizhzhia facility. Grossi has previously spoken to President Vladimir Putin of Russia on the same topic.
The talks have yet to bear fruit. Control of the plant gives Moscow significant leverage over Ukraine’s energy sector, which Russian forces also have been targeting since October with missile and drone strikes.
The agency’s statement gave no military details about the explosions, although they coincide with the latest in a series of frequent reports by Ukrainian officials of attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region, on the eastern bank of the river, and in Dnipropetrovsk, on the river’s western bank.
“Nikopol district had another restless night, the artillery strike alert lasted almost 12 hours,” the head of the military administration in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykola Lukashuk, said Friday, referring to a riverbank area a few miles away from the plant. The community of Myrove, also on the western side of the river, was shelled about 50 times overnight, he said on the Telegram social messaging app.
Russia was making big plans for Ukraine's nuclear power plants before its invasion fell apart
Stavros Atlamazoglou
Sun, January 29, 2023
Russian military vehicles at the gates of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in May 2022.ANDREY BORODULIN/AFP via Getty Images
Russia launched its attack on Ukraine in February 2022 with plans for a quick victory.
Those plans depended in part on seizing Ukraine's nuclear power plants and using them for leverage.
Russia's ambitions for those plants were foiled when Ukraine fended off the initial attack.
When he launched his invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin had ambitious goals for Ukraine.
Within three days to a week of attacking, Putin planned to capture Kyiv, topple Ukraine's government, and demilitarize Ukrainian forces.
According to an analysis of the first five months of the war by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, the Russians had big plans to use Ukraine's nuclear power plants to help make it all happen.
3 Russian plans
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in July 2019.
A Russian serviceman at the Zaporizhzhia plant in May 2022.
Fighting in a nuclear plant
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on August 29.
A damaged administrative building at the Zaporizhzhia plant in March 2022.
Russian forces still control the Zaporizhzhia plant, but Ukraine has fended off Russian attacks on its other nuclear power facilities.
Russian forces tried to capture the Pivdennoukrainsk plant in southern Ukraine but were repelled, though the facility came under artillery fire in the fall that struck a few hundred yards from its nuclear reactors.
After almost a year of fighting and the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian troops, it's evident that Putin's plans for Ukraine failed miserably, and there are other signs that Ukraine and the world thinks those ambitions are thwarted for good.
The International Atomic Energy Agency recently established a permanent presence at the Pivdennoukrainsk plant, a sign of confidence in Ukraine's ability to hold off future Russian attacks.
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is working toward a master's degree in strategy and cybersecurity at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies.
Stavros Atlamazoglou
Sun, January 29, 2023
Russian military vehicles at the gates of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in May 2022.ANDREY BORODULIN/AFP via Getty Images
Russia launched its attack on Ukraine in February 2022 with plans for a quick victory.
Those plans depended in part on seizing Ukraine's nuclear power plants and using them for leverage.
Russia's ambitions for those plants were foiled when Ukraine fended off the initial attack.
When he launched his invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin had ambitious goals for Ukraine.
Within three days to a week of attacking, Putin planned to capture Kyiv, topple Ukraine's government, and demilitarize Ukrainian forces.
According to an analysis of the first five months of the war by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, the Russians had big plans to use Ukraine's nuclear power plants to help make it all happen.
3 Russian plans
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in July 2019.
Dmytro Smolyenko/Future Publishing via Getty Images
According to the RUSI report, Russia's war plans viewed Ukraine's nuclear power plants as a means to achieve Moscow's larger aims. Key to that planning was southern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia plant, which is Europe's largest.
The Kremlin's plan envisioned three uses for the Ukrainian nuclear power facilities once the invasion was underway.
First, Moscow planned for Ukrainian nuclear power facilities to function as bases for Russian troops and their equipment as well as ammunition depots. Russian officers were also to set up command-and-control posts within the premises of those nuclear facilities.
The second function the Kremlin envisioned for the nuclear facilities was to gain control over Ukraine's energy system. Nuclear power generates more than 60% of Ukraine's electricity. Thus, by controlling the nuclear facilities, Moscow would have influence over Ukraine's population and economy.
Finally, Moscow wanted to control the Ukrainian nuclear facilities so as to have "leverage for blackmailing" European countries. By threatening Europe with radiation pollution from potential accidents, the Kremlin hoped to deter direct or indirect foreign intervention.
According to the RUSI report, Russia's war plans viewed Ukraine's nuclear power plants as a means to achieve Moscow's larger aims. Key to that planning was southern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia plant, which is Europe's largest.
The Kremlin's plan envisioned three uses for the Ukrainian nuclear power facilities once the invasion was underway.
First, Moscow planned for Ukrainian nuclear power facilities to function as bases for Russian troops and their equipment as well as ammunition depots. Russian officers were also to set up command-and-control posts within the premises of those nuclear facilities.
The second function the Kremlin envisioned for the nuclear facilities was to gain control over Ukraine's energy system. Nuclear power generates more than 60% of Ukraine's electricity. Thus, by controlling the nuclear facilities, Moscow would have influence over Ukraine's population and economy.
Finally, Moscow wanted to control the Ukrainian nuclear facilities so as to have "leverage for blackmailing" European countries. By threatening Europe with radiation pollution from potential accidents, the Kremlin hoped to deter direct or indirect foreign intervention.
A Russian serviceman at the Zaporizhzhia plant in May 2022.
ANDREY BORODULIN/AFP via Getty Images
Moreover, to deal with any Ukrainian provinces that refused to cooperate with the proxy government Moscow was planning to install, the Russians planned to weaponize the captured nuclear power plants to cut off electricity to those regions.
Moscow's goal was the "denuclearization" of Ukraine through the capture and control of its nuclear power plants, along with the destruction of Ukraine's national identity and of Ukraine's military forces and defense industry, according to the RUSI report.
Moscow also incorporated Ukraine's nuclear power facilities into its information operations.
In trying to justify the illegal and brutal invasion of its neighbor, Russia went to extremes, calling for "de-nazification" of its neighbor and making allegations about the presence of "American Pentagon biolaboratories."
Moscow also seized on Ukraine's peaceful nuclear power program — a legacy of the Soviet Union — to accuse Kyiv wanting to restore its nuclear weapons program and thereby threaten Russia. Ukraine was left with nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union dissolved, but leaders in Kyiv, who didn't have the ability to use those weapons or funds to maintain them, gave them up in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from the US, the UK, and Russia.
Moreover, to deal with any Ukrainian provinces that refused to cooperate with the proxy government Moscow was planning to install, the Russians planned to weaponize the captured nuclear power plants to cut off electricity to those regions.
Moscow's goal was the "denuclearization" of Ukraine through the capture and control of its nuclear power plants, along with the destruction of Ukraine's national identity and of Ukraine's military forces and defense industry, according to the RUSI report.
Moscow also incorporated Ukraine's nuclear power facilities into its information operations.
In trying to justify the illegal and brutal invasion of its neighbor, Russia went to extremes, calling for "de-nazification" of its neighbor and making allegations about the presence of "American Pentagon biolaboratories."
Moscow also seized on Ukraine's peaceful nuclear power program — a legacy of the Soviet Union — to accuse Kyiv wanting to restore its nuclear weapons program and thereby threaten Russia. Ukraine was left with nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union dissolved, but leaders in Kyiv, who didn't have the ability to use those weapons or funds to maintain them, gave them up in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from the US, the UK, and Russia.
Fighting in a nuclear plant
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on August 29.
Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies.
Although Russia's military failed to achieve any of its primary invasion objectives, it did manage to capture the Zaporizhzhia plant.
In a firefight recorded by cameras at the plant, Russian forces are seen storming and capturing Europe's largest nuclear power plant, partially achieving Moscow's goals.
Over the following weeks and months, the Russian military moved more troops into the area and housed them on the plant's premises.
Fighting in the region around the plant continued, and artillery fire frequently landed in and around the facility. Russian troops also stored equipment and weapons in and around the Zaporizhzhia plant.
Although Russia's military failed to achieve any of its primary invasion objectives, it did manage to capture the Zaporizhzhia plant.
In a firefight recorded by cameras at the plant, Russian forces are seen storming and capturing Europe's largest nuclear power plant, partially achieving Moscow's goals.
Over the following weeks and months, the Russian military moved more troops into the area and housed them on the plant's premises.
Fighting in the region around the plant continued, and artillery fire frequently landed in and around the facility. Russian troops also stored equipment and weapons in and around the Zaporizhzhia plant.
A damaged administrative building at the Zaporizhzhia plant in March 2022.
Press service of National Nuclear Energy Generating Company Energoatom
Russian forces still control the Zaporizhzhia plant, but Ukraine has fended off Russian attacks on its other nuclear power facilities.
Russian forces tried to capture the Pivdennoukrainsk plant in southern Ukraine but were repelled, though the facility came under artillery fire in the fall that struck a few hundred yards from its nuclear reactors.
After almost a year of fighting and the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian troops, it's evident that Putin's plans for Ukraine failed miserably, and there are other signs that Ukraine and the world thinks those ambitions are thwarted for good.
The International Atomic Energy Agency recently established a permanent presence at the Pivdennoukrainsk plant, a sign of confidence in Ukraine's ability to hold off future Russian attacks.
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is working toward a master's degree in strategy and cybersecurity at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies.
No comments:
Post a Comment