Almost All Constituencies Think Brexit Was A Mistake, Poll Shows

Graeme Demianyk
Mon, 30 January 2023 

Then-prime Minister Boris Johnson walks away after driving a Union flag-themed JCB, with the words Get Brexit Done inside the digger bucket, through a fake wall emblazoned with the word Gridlock, during a visit to JCB cab manufacturing centre in Uttoxeter, while on the general election campaign trail in 2019.

Then-prime Minister Boris Johnson walks away after driving a Union flag-themed JCB, with the words Get Brexit Done inside the digger bucket, through a fake wall emblazoned with the word Gridlock, during a visit to JCB cab manufacturing centre in Uttoxeter, while on the general election campaign trail in 2019.

A new poll to mark the third anniversary of the UK leaving the EU has suggested most voters think Brexit was a mistake.

A survey by Unherd and Focaldata asked voters across England, Scotland and Wales whether “Britain was wrong to leave the EU”.

In all but three of 632 constituencies, more people agreed than disagreed. The three constituencies that disagreed are all in Lincolnshire.

Bristol West, Edinburgh South and Streatham were the three most “Bregretful” constituencies. Boston and Skegness, South Holland and the Deepings, and Louth and Horncastle were most in favour of having left.

Overall, 37 per cent of those polled strongly agreed, 17 per cent mildly agreed, 9 per cent mildly disagreed and 19 per cent strongly disagreed. Some 18 per cent said “neither”.

Then-prime minister Boris Johnson led the country out of the European Union and into its transition period on January 31, 2020.

In the UK-wide Brexit referendum in 2016, some 52% voted to leave while 48% voted to remain. There was a 72% turnout across the country.

Labour leader Keir Starmer has ruled out on multiple occasions the UK rejoining the EU or re-entering the single market, while also criticising the deal agreed between London and Brussels by Johnson.

The Northern Ireland Protocol, signed off by Johnson as part of his Brexit deal, remains a source of tension between the UK and the EU as the two sides bid to find a solution.

The row over the protocol, which unionists say creates a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, effectively led to the collapse of powersharing in Stormont.

Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak has said Britain has taken “huge strides” in taking advantage of the opportunities opened up by Brexit to address the challenges facing the country.

In a statement, the prime minister said the country is confidently forging a new path as an “independent nation”.

He pointed to the opening of eight new freeports, plans to review or abolish EU red tape and the overhaul of the regime for business subsidies among the benefits of the break with Brussels.

In his statement, Sunak said: “In the three years since leaving the EU, we’ve made huge strides in harnessing the freedoms unlocked by Brexit to tackle generational challenges.

“Whether leading Europe’s fastest vaccine rollout, striking trade deals with over 70 countries or taking back control of our borders, we’ve forged a path as an independent nation with confidence.

“And in my first 100 days as Prime Minister, that momentum hasn’t slowed – we’re cutting red tape for businesses, levelling up through our freeports, and designing our own, fairer farming system to protect the British countryside.

“This is just the beginning of our plans to deliver on our five priorities, including growing the economy so we can create better paid jobs, and I’m determined to ensure the benefits of Brexit continue to empower communities and businesses right across the country.”

Prime minister Rishi Sunak during a Q&A session at Teesside University on Monday.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak during a Q&A session at Teesside University on Monday.

Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom has insisted leaving the EU will be “the best decision we ever made” despite the unease among some with the way Brexit has turned out.

The former cabinet minister was appearing on a special episode of BBC’s Newsnight to mark the third anniversary on Tuesday of the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc.

The Tory MP was brought on as one of the most vocal advocates of Brexit during the referendum campaign, and her view appears not to have shifted.

Her upbeat tone comes despite recent polling suggesting growing unhappiness with the direction Brexit has taken.

Leadsom said: “I was so certain and remain so certain that the UK’s future lies outside of the EU, so it was the greatest pleasure and privilege to be able to make that case to the British public with no holds barred. Why should we leave? Here is why.

“For me, I was absolutely passionate about it and I still remain the same today. So I think it is going to be the best decision we ever made. It does always take time, particularly with the horrendous ... the pandemic and Putin’s aggression, and the cost of living crisis, and the energy crisis.”

Three years on, Britain still waits for Brexit dividend

Machines produced by Bruderer Uk Ltd are seen inside the company's factory in Luton

By Andy Bruce
Mon, 30 January 2023

LONDON (Reuters) - Three years after its departure from the European Union, Britain is yet to benefit from the Brexit dividend that was promised for its economy as it lags its peers on multiple fronts, including trade and investment.

Britain exited the EU on Jan. 31, 2020, though remained in the bloc's single market and customs union for 11 more months.

On that day, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the country could finally fulfil its potential and that he hoped it would grow in confidence with each passing month.

So far, the opposite has happened, with a range of indicators showing under-performance compared with other economies.

Opinion polls show Britons who regret leaving the EU increasingly outnumber those who do not. A survey published on Monday by news website UnHerd showed this was now the case in all but three of 632 parliamentary constituencies surveyed.

The government, led by Brexit-supporting Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, says Britain is prospering with new-found freedoms.

Last week, finance minister Jeremy Hunt challenged the talk of decline and said Brexit offered a brighter future with room for measures that will attract investment in areas such as the green economy and tech.

Many economists say leaving the EU is not the sole cause of Britain's woes - the country was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic - but it is a factor that can help explain recent underperformance.

"It's been more than a slow burn. It's been a serious reduction in economic performance," said John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think tank.

"If you impose barriers to trade, investment and migration with your biggest trading partner (EU), then you're going have quite a big hit to trade volumes, and to investment and to GDP," he said, pointing to a string of dismal economic data.

Britain was the only Group of Seven advanced economy yet to regain its pre-pandemic size of late 2019 at the end of September last year, the most recent period covered by data.

GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC-UK is only G7 economy yet to regain pre-pandemic size - https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-EU/ECONOMY/gkplwdmdbvb/chart.png

Springford estimated that Brexit reduced Britain's economic output - compared with what it would have been without leaving the EU - by around 5.5% as of mid-2022, based on a "doppelganger" model in which an algorithm selects countries whose economic performance closely matched pre-Brexit Britain.

The government's own forecasting organisation, the Office for Budget Responsibility, and the Bank of England also judge there to be a long-running net cost to leaving the EU.



Some economists disagree with the consensus.

Brexit-supporting economist Gerard Lyons, an adviser to online wealth management platform NetWealth and who advised Boris Johnson during his years as the mayor of London, said it was wrong to blame Britain's problems on Brexit.

"Our problems pre-date Brexit," Lyons said, pointing to chronically low rates of investment in Britain. "Achieving the benefits of Brexit very much depends on delivering ... a growth plan - how you can use your levers post-Brexit."

He criticised the doppelganger method of analysis on the basis that some smaller countries selected by the models were inappropriate comparators for a large economy like Britain.

TRADING BLOWS

Trade and investment data point to other Brexit problems.

Exports, especially in goods, have disappointed over the last three years - despite high hopes for a "Global Britain" rebalancing of the economy after Brexit.

Total exports, including services, have grown by less than those of any other G7 country since late 2019.

GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC-UK trade performance lags G7 peers - https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-EU/ECONOMY/znpnbkdxqpl/chart.png

Boris Glass, senior economist at ratings agency S&P Global, said increased red tape in UK-EU trade had damaged the competitiveness of smaller British manufacturers especially, since they have fewer resources to deal with it.

"It's worth noting that the UK has more small exporters than for example, France or Germany. So in that respect they are disadvantaged," Glass said. "If you are an exporter with 20 employees, then the burden of filling out these forms is very costly. Some of them can't compete at all."

Business investment too has grown by less since the June 2016 Brexit referendum than in the United States, France or Germany, according to a Reuters analysis of data from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC-UK business investment has fallen since the Brexit vote - https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-EU/ECONOMY/mopaklmkypa/chart.png

Some pro-Brexit economists say such statistics ignore the fact that British corporate investment was unusually strong in the years leading up to mid-2016 and was bound to slow. But business survey evidence overwhelmingly points to Brexit as a factor behind weak investment in recent years.

"It's concerning that there doesn't seem to be any kind of pickup in investment. And I think, in order for us to have a durable recovery from the Brexit shock, then we've got to see that rise," Springford said.

Britain still boasts higher rates of employment and lower unemployment than most EU countries but there are some signs that Brexit may have impacted the labour market too.

Business groups want the government to relax its post-Brexit immigration rules as firms are struggling to find workers, something the BoE fears is stoking inflationary pressures.

And unlike most of its G7 peers, Britain's employment rate has yet to recover to its pre-pandemic level.

GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC-UK employment rate still short of pre-pandemic norm - https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-EU/ECONOMY/lgvdknmorpo/chart.png

(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by William Schomberg and Mark Heinrich)