Living in a violent setting can result in a shorter, but also a more unpredictable lifespan, according to new research from NYU Abu Dhabi social scientists
While widespread violence has long been known to exert a heavy toll on life expectancy, these findings highlight an even stronger association with lifetime uncertainty
Peer-Reviewed PublicationIMAGE: GLOBAL LIFETIME UNCERTAINTY (STANDARD DEVIATION) AND LEVEL OF VIOLENCE (GPI INTERNAL PEACE) FOR MEN AND WOMEN CONDITIONAL ON SURVIVING TO AGE 10 IN 2017 view more
CREDIT: COURTESY OF NYU ABU DHABI
Abu Dhabi, UAE, February 3, 2023 – A team of researchers at the NYU Abu Dhabi (NYUAD) Social Science Division and Oxford University have published a new study that explores the extent that violence in a country affects uncertainty of the age at death, also referred to as lifetime uncertainty, a key – yet often underappreciated – public health indicator. After hypothesizing that violence is a key predictor of lifetime uncertainty cross-nationally, the researchers found cross-national evidence of a direct link between living in a violent setting and both a shorter and less predictable lifespan.
Uncertainty about the future, specifically uncertainty about survival, influences human behavior and practical life-course decision making, from choices about investing in education, following healthy living habits, and even whether or not to have children. At the population level, lifetime uncertainty can be measured as the spread, or inequality, in age at death. In the study titled A global assessment of the impact of violence on lifetime uncertainty published in the journal Science Advances, the researchers analyzed mortality data for 162 countries between 2008-2017 from the Global Burden of Disease Study and the Internal Peace Index. The researchers found that the most violent countries are those with the lowest life expectancy – with an estimated gap of approximately 14 years in remaining life expectancy with peaceful settings – and the highest lifetime uncertainty. Violence was shown to be a key predictor of lifetime uncertainty cross-nationally, a relationship that was especially strong in countries with ongoing conflicts and/or high levels of violence.
In the Middle East, the researchers found that conflict-related deaths at young ages are the largest contributor to lifetime uncertainty. In Latin America, a similar pattern can be attributed to high rates of homicide and interpersonal violence. Gender is also a factor. Although the effects are larger in magnitude for men, the consequences remain considerable for adolescent girls and women in their early reproductive years. It was also found that in contexts of high violence, lifetime uncertainty is linked to high premature mortality, and such early deaths are the driving factor behind the gap with peaceful nations.
An empirical link between prevailing levels of violence and lifetime uncertainty has not yet been comprehensively established worldwide. As exposure to violence entails a fundamental state of vulnerability with significant social and psychological implications, such as the increased risk of depression, alcohol abuse, suicidal behavior, and posttraumatic stress disorder, understanding the long-term impacts is critical.
“Our study has shown that the impact of violence on mortality goes beyond cutting lives short,” said Orsola Torrisi, a Post-doctoral Associate at the NYUAD Social Science Division. “To live in a violent country is to experience a double burden: lives are both shorter and less predictable. In turn, higher levels of uncertainty make individuals more likely to engage in violent behavior, creating a vicious cycle that is difficult to break. The magnitude of lifetime uncertainty attributed to violence – even as other historical causes like disease continue to decline – highlights that it is a significant, but largely unaddressed, public health crisis in many parts of the world.”
ENDS
About NYU Abu Dhabi
www.nyuad.nyu.edu
NYU Abu Dhabi is the first comprehensive liberal arts and research campus in the Middle East to be operated abroad by a major American research university. NYU Abu Dhabi has integrated a highly selective program with majors in the sciences, engineering, social sciences, arts, and humanities with a world center for advanced research. Its campus enables students to succeed in an increasingly interdependent world, and to advance cooperation and progress on humanity’s shared challenges. NYU Abu Dhabi’s high-achieving students have come from some 120 countries and speak over 115 languages. Together, NYU's campuses in New York, Abu Dhabi, and Shanghai form the backbone of a unique global university, giving faculty and students opportunities to experience varied learning environments and immersion in other cultures at one or more of the numerous study-abroad sites NYU maintains on six continents.
JOURNAL
Science Advances
ARTICLE TITLE
A global assessment of the impact of violence on lifetime uncertainty
Life in a violent country can be years shorter and much less predictable – even for those not involved in conflict
How long people live is less predictable and life expectancy for young people can be as much as 14 years shorter in violent countries,compared to peaceful countries, according to a new study today [3/2] from an international team, led by Oxford’s Leverhu
Peer-Reviewed PublicationHow long people live is less predictable and life expectancy for young people can be as much as 14 years shorter in violent countries compared to peaceful countries, according to a new study today [3/2] from an international team, led by Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. It reveals a direct link between the uncertainty of living in a violent setting, even for those not directly involved in the violence, and a ‘double burden’ of shorter and less predictable lives.
According to the research, violent deaths are responsible for a high proportion of the differences in lifetime uncertainty between violent and peaceful countries. But, the study says, ‘The impact of violence on mortality goes beyond cutting lives short. When lives are routinely lost to violence, those left behind face uncertainty as to who will be next.’
Lead author Dr José Manuel Aburto from Oxford's Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, adds, ‘What we found most striking is that lifetime uncertainty has a greater association with violence than life expectancy. Lifetime uncertainty, therefore, should not be overlooked when analysing changes in mortality patterns.’
Using mortality data from 162 countries, and the Internal Peace Index between 2008-2017, the study shows the most violent countries are also those with the highest lifetime uncertainty. In the Middle East, conflict-related deaths at young ages are the biggest contributor to this, while in Latin America, a similar pattern results from homicides and interpersonal violence.
But lifetime uncertainty was ‘remarkably low’ between 2008-2017, in most Northern and Southern European countries. Although Europe has been the most peaceful region over the period, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will impact this.
In high-income countries, reduced cancer mortality has recently helped to reduce lifetime uncertainty. But, in the most violent societies, lifetime uncertainty is even experienced by those not directly involved in violence. The report states, ‘Poverty-insecurity-violence cycles magnify pre-existing structural patterns of disadvantage for women and fundamental imbalances in gender relations at young ages. In some Latin American countries, female homicides have increased over the last decades and exposure to violent environments brings health and social burdens, particularly for children and women.’
Study co-author Professor Ridhi Kashyap, from the Leverhulme Centre, says, ‘Whilst men are the major direct victims of violence, women are more likely to experience non-fatal consequences in violent contexts. These indirect effects of violence should not be ignored as they fuel gender inequalities, and can trigger other forms of vulnerability and causes of death.’
According to the report, lower life expectancy is usually associated with greater lifetime uncertainty. In addition, living in a violent society creates vulnerability and uncertainty – and that, in turn, can lead to more violent behaviour.
Countries with high levels of violence experience lower levels of life expectancy than more peaceful ones, ‘We estimate a gap of around 14 years in remaining life expectancy at age 10 between the least and most violent countries…In El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Colombia the gap in life expectancy with high income countries is predominantly explained by excess mortality due to homicides.’
Study co-author Vanessa di Lego, from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, adds, ‘It is striking how violence alone is a major driver of disparities in lifetime uncertainty. One thing is for certain, global violence is a public health crisis, with tremendous implications for population health, and should not be taken lightly.’
About the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science
This major new interdisciplinary research centre, funded by the Leverhulme Trust and directed by Professor Melinda Mills, is tackling the most challenging demographic problems of our time. Based at the University of Oxford, the Centre is at the forefront of demographic research that impacts academia, society and policy. Together with academic and industry partners, our researchers use new types of data, methods and unconventional approaches to disrupt conventional thinking across important issues such as COVID-19, climate change, and life expectancy. More information on the Centre can be found here.
About the University of Oxford
Oxford University has been placed number one in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the seventh year running, and number two in the QS World Rankings 2022. At the heart of this success are the twin-pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.
Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.
JOURNAL
Science Advances
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Data/statistical analysis
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
People
ARTICLE TITLE
A global assessment of the impact of violence on lifetime uncertainty
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
3-Feb-2023
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