Turkey quake tests Erdogan's all-powerful rule

Fulya Ozerkan with Burcin Gercek in Ankara
Thu, February 16, 2023 


When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan assumed sweeping powers in 2018, he swore the state would deliver more under a centralised system that his critics compare to one-man rule.

Five years on, an agonisingly slow response to a catastrophic quake has undermined that idea, boosting the opposition's case in polls planned for May, experts say.

Erdogan has acknowledged "shortcomings" in the government's handling of Turkey's deadliest disaster of its post-Ottoman history.

More than 36,000 people have died in Turkey and nearly 3,700 in neighbouring Syria. The toll is expected to keep climbing for days to come.

Under pressure like at few points in his two-decade rule, Erdogan blamed obstacles such as freezing temperatures and quake-damaged airports and roads.

No government in the world could have done better, Erdogan said.

The opposition counters that the February 6 quake underlines why Turkey must switch back to a parliamentary system under which agencies have more freedom to act on their own.

"You have centralisation in all Turkish institutions, which is reflected in institutions that specifically should not have it," such as the disaster agency, said Hetav Rojan, a disaster management expert who follows Turkey closely.

- 'Critical hours' -

Rojan argued that the system, which Erdogan secured through a constitutional referendum in 2017, had hamstrung disaster response agencies that need to make snap decisions on their own.

Help took days to arrive in many areas, with distressed residents forced to use their bare hands to try and pull relatives from the rubble.

Others were left without water, food or shelter in freezing temperatures.

Many volunteers who rushed to the region shared on social media how they were forced to wait for authorisations or how equipment was slow to arrive.

The government has since dispatched tens of thousands of soldiers to the scene, reinforcing support for millions of people left homeless by a 7.8-magnitude quake.

But many are still fuming at the initial delay.

The main opposition leader, who is running neck-and-neck with Erdogan in opinion polls, has spearheaded the criticism.

"There wasn't any coordination. They were late in the critical hours," Kemal Kilicdaroglu thundered this week.

"Their incompetence cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of our citizens."

- Unseemly arguments -

For example, it was impossible for crane operators -- who offered critical assistance to rescuers -- to be deployed without the disaster agency's approval.

This cost crucial time, Erdogan's critics say.

Others point to unseemly arguments between state agencies and independent rescue and relief workers on the ground.

AFP journalists witnessed disputes between volunteers and AFAD state disaster responders in Elbistan, near the epicentre of a huge aftershock in Turkey's southeast.

"We started working on this rubble even though the disaster agency discouraged us from it," a volunteer, who did not wish to be named for fear of retribution, told AFP.

"When we finally heard the voice of a survivor, AFAD teams pulled us away and took over our work," he added.

Murat, 48, waiting for news of his loved ones under the rubble in Kahramanmaras, witnessed similar scenes.

"When miners discovered a person alive under the rubble, they were pushed away and people who wanted to appear on camera took their place," he said, also fearing to disclose his last name.

- Controlling the narrative -

Even a non-profit group run by rock star Haluk Levent, as well as opposition-run municipalities that sent in their own rescue teams, have provoked the government's ire.

"The necessary actions will be taken against anyone that tries to rival the state," threatened Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu.

"The (ruling party) government and its institutions are really trying to control the narrative of the current rescue management," Rojan said.

An advertising campaign, called "disaster of the century", had been prepared by an agency close to the government, Turkish media reported.

The aim, critics say, was to convince Turks that any shortcoming is because of the gigantic size of the disaster -- that no one could handle such a catastrophe.

In the face of a public outcry, the campaign was withdrawn.

For Rojan, it's still "too soon" to see if the government's narrative will work.

"It is definitely a political test for Erdogan with upcoming elections," he said.

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‘A political quake as well’: Will Turkey’s calamity rattle Erdogan’s rule?

Issued on: 16/02/2023 - 
Text by: Pierre AYAD

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared last week’s earthquake the deadliest catastrophe since the country’s inception a century ago. With elections on the horizon and anger at the government rising, FRANCE 24 spoke to political analyst Taha Ouda Oglo about the calamity’s possible implications for Turkish politics and the country’s longtime ruler.

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power on the heels of the 1999 quake that killed more than 17,000 people and displaced countless more. The new government pledged change, promising that Turkey would be ready for the next quake.

However, this was not the case.

Last week’s disaster exposed a collapse of Ankara’s response capabilities to a natural event of this magnitude. It also left in shambles Erdogan’s rhetoric following the 1999 quake, as promises to make the country quake-proof were not kept. With tens of thousands dead and millions more wounded, homeless or lacking basic facilities, coupled with a possible loss of 1% of the country’s GDP in a time of economic crisis, the calamity has proven to be the worst disaster to face Turkey in its modern history.

With general elections due in May and Erdogan's own future on the line, FRANCE 24 spoke to Turkish political analyst Taha Ouda Oglo about the political repercussions of Turkey's devastating earthquake.

FRANCE 24: The region stricken by the quake has traditionally favoured Erdogan's party at the polls. Is there a specific reason why?

There is a reason why people in this region vote for the AKP. On top of a large population of ethnic Turks, the region is also home to many Kurds who tend to have more conservative views than Kurds elsewhere. This has helped sustain support for the party even as tensions have risen between the government and the Kurdish community.

Erdogan and other government officials have made numerous trips to the area ahead of the elections. Lots of pro-AKP rallies were held there before the earthquake as the region has historically been a large reservoir of votes for the ruling party. That being said, the situation has changed dramatically since the earthquake as anger and despair grip the region. At the moment, supporting the AKP is the least of these people’s concerns.

FRANCE 24: How could the earthquake affect Erdogan's image and that of his party, both in stricken areas and the broader country?

Erdogan and his government benefited from a broadly positive image before the quake as several efforts were directed to improve the economy. This made Erdogan confident enough to seek an early general election in May. The AKP was hoping to capitalise on economic progress to ensure its re-election. However, after this unforeseeable calamity, all bets are off.

The people in quake-stricken areas are now resentful. They feel that money was used to revamp Istanbul’s infrastructure and make it quake-resistant but that nothing was allocated to the regions where the disaster actually hit.

Moreover, there is an admission of guilt by the government, which acknowledged failings in its response to the disaster. But there is more to it. The government did not hold people accountable over buildings with glaring code violations. At the moment, the authorities are arresting many contractors responsible for building deficient structures, but this isn’t enough.

Across Turkey, people are asking what happened to money that was earmarked to upgrading the country's infrastructure. They are asking why the authorities failed to enforce modern construction codes and turned a blind eye to code violations. (...) The fact that Turkey is now relying on international help, including from countries Ankara doesn't get along with, has only increased the people's anger and the country's sense of helplessness.

FRANCE 24: What impact could this have on the May elections, assuming they take place?

This is not just an earthquake; it's a political quake as well. The opposition will definitely use this as ammunition against the government. On the other hand, the authorities are now in a race against time to do what good they can ahead of the elections to ensure their political survival.

There is talk of postponing the elections until June – or even later if the government cannot get out of this situation. We have no idea, it is too soon to tell. What is certain is that the government is in a very tight spot not just because of the earthquake and the ensuing human tragedy, but also because of its electability. We will have a clearer picture within the coming weeks, when the full scope of this catastrophe becomes apparent. But at the moment, the people are angry and sad, and no one wants to think about the political implications.