Thursday, March 16, 2023

Analysis-Macron wins Pyrrhic victory on pension bill, risks fuelling anger

MICHEL ROSE
Thu, Mar 16, 2023

French President Macron attends the National Roundtable on Diplomacy in Paris


By Michel Rose

PARIS (Reuters) - President Emmanuel Macron's move to shun the National Assembly and push through an unpopular pension system overhaul without a vote in the lower house may secure a reform he says is needed for France's finances. But it may end up a Pyrrhic victory.

By using special constitutional powers instead of risking lawmakers rejecting the reform, Macron has given ammunition to the opposition and to trade union leaders who cast the reform as undemocratic.

It could also play into the far right's hands.

"It's a democratic coup," far-right leader Marine Le Pen told reporters after a chaotic session in parliament, where Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was booed as she announced that the government would invoke article 49.3 of the constitution allowing it to pass the legislation without a vote.

Despite a series of costly sweeteners, the government concluded it had failed to garner enough votes from conservative lawmakers in the lower house to ensure passage for its plan to raise the minimum retirement age to 64 from 62.

Once known as a high-stakes political gambler, Macron chose to play it safe.

He was too concerned about the broader financial implications to risk jeopardising a reform meant to reassure investors and ratings agencies about French debt sustainability, a government source said.

However, weeks of heated debates in parliament and street protests drawing over 1 million people risked leaving a toxic legacy that could boost far-right populists, analysts said.

"This reform has all the ingredients to boost votes for parties on the radical right," said Bruno Palier, a political scientist at French university Sciences-Po.

Palier said bearing the brunt of the reform would be the lower middle-class, a segment of the population that already felt like it was the loser of globalisation, as it did in Britain before Brexit and in the United States before Donald Trump's election.

"This resentment is not going to disappear, it's going to morph into something different, it'll just wait for voting ballots to manifest itself again," he added.

Past leaders who have meddled with the retirement age have done so to their cost, Palier said, pointing to Nicolas Sarkozy's failure to win re-election in 2012 after he pushed the retirement age to 62 from 60 in 2010.

LE PEN AMBUSH

To be sure, claims of authoritarianism by the pension bill's critics are far-fetched.

Article 49.3 of the constitution, which Macron invoked to pass the reform, has been used by governments of the left, right and centre in the past. Former Socialist prime minister Michel Rocard resorted to the special powers it entails 28 times in the 1980s and 1990s.

However, from the outset Macron's government failed to make the case for reform.

Ministers initially sold the changes as necessary to save the pension system from collapse. They then explained that the changes were a "left-wing reform".

Political observers say Le Pen played her hand well.

She is well-placed to benefit from the way the debate unfolded, political sources and disillusioned voters have told Reuters, with Macron being barred from running for a third term in 2027 and no clear successor in sight.

"Mrs Le Pen is ready for the ambush," Laurent Berger, the head of the moderate CFDT union said on Thursday, hours before the vote. "The resentment, the social debt that's building, is going to be exploited by the populists and the far-right. It's scary," he said.

Le Pen has repeatedly stated her opposition to the reform but has instructed her colleagues in parliament to refrain from using obstructionist tactics like those of the radical left bloc, in line with her long-term goal of winning respectability.

At one point in the debates she even asked her lawmakers to stand and applaud the minister in charge of defending the reform, who had been called a "murderer" by one left-wing lawmaker.

A government source told Reuters Le Pen had appeared the respectable opponent in parliament as the left sought to block the bill with thousands of amendments and the centre-right bickered over whether to support the legislation.

"She even managed to look like the arbiter of debates, which is incredible," the source said.

Macron will want to turn the page quickly, with government officials already preparing more socially minded reforms.

But the end of debates in parliament may do little to quell anger on the streets. An Odoxa poll showed 62% of the French think protests should continue even once the bill is adopted.

Within moments of the government bypassing parliament, an impromptu demonstration took place on Paris' Place de la Concorde opposite the National Assembly.

The symbolism was powerful: It was there where Louis XVI was guillotined 230 years ago.

(Reporting by Michel Rose; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

France's Macron bypasses National Assembly to raise retirement age to 64

Thousands of protesters demonstrate on Place de la Concorde square, facing the French Parliament, on Thursday after French President Emmanuel Macron pushed through a controversial increase in the country's retirement age from 62 to 64 by using a procedure that allowed him to bypass a National Assembly vote. Photo by Yoan Valat/EPA-EFE

March 16 (UPI) -- French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday pushed through a controversial increase in the country's retirement age from 62 to 64 by using a procedure that allowed him to bypass a National Assembly vote.

Macron used Article 49.3 of the Constitution. The move opens him up to a possible no-confidence vote by opposition lawmakers, though, that is unlikely to happen. Macron's party and its allies hold a slight majority in the assembly.

Macron's move is likely to further inflame the bill's opponents, who have demonstrated for about two months against the measure, sparking strikes in public transportation and garbage pickup. He defended the move, saying France's pension system was in danger because of a growing number of retirees living longer and outpacing new workers, who fund the system, entering the workforce.

Macron and his Renaissance Party had said that, according to figures from France's Pensions Advisory Council, the projected deficit annually over the next 10 years would have been $10.73 billion annually through 2032.

Those stark numbers were not enough to convince unions and other opponents, who pushed back against one provision that said workers had to contribute to the pension for 43 years to be fully eligible.

"By resorting to [Article] 49.3 the government demonstrates that it does not have a majority to approve the two-year postponement of the legal retirement age," Laurent Berger, secretary general of the CFDT union.

"The political compromise failed. Workers must be listened to when it is their work being acted upon," Berger said.

Macron’s pension plan advances despite strikes across France

By SYLVIE CORBET and ELAINE GANLEY
today

1 of 21

Protesters kicks a teargas canister as he clashes with police during a demonstration in Nantes, western France, Wednesday, March 15, 2023. Opponents of French President Emmanuel Macron's pension plan are staging a new round of strikes and protests as a joint committee of senators and lower-house lawmakers examines the contested bill. (AP Photo/Jeremias Gonzalez)

PARIS (AP) — Thousands of people angered over President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age joined a national strike on Wednesday as a committee of lawmakers advanced the proposal.

It remains to be seen whether Macron can command a parliamentary majority for his plan to raise the age from 62 to 64 so that workers can pay more money into the system. If not, he could risk imposing the unpopular changes unilaterally.

The plan also would deny a full pension to anyone who retires at 64 without having worked for 43 years — short of that, they’d have to wait until 67.

Macron has promoted the changes as central to his vision for making the French economy more competitive. Unions remained combative late Wednesday, calling on lawmakers to vote against the plan and denouncing the government’s legal shortcuts to move the bill forward as a dangerous “denial of democracy.”

Economic challenges have prompted widespread unrest across Western Europe. In Britain on Wednesday, teachers, junior doctors and public transport staff were striking for higher wages to match rising prices. And Spain’s left-wing government joined with labor unions to announce a “historic” deal to save its pension system by raising social security costs for higher wage earners.

Spain’s solution is exactly what French unions would like, but Macron has refused to raise taxes, saying it would make the country’s economy less competitive. Something must be done, the president has argued, to sustain France’s current levels of pension payments with the retiree population expected to grow from 16 to 21 million by 2050.

In Paris, loud music and huge union balloons kicked off the 8th nationwide round of protests. An array of banners set the tone: “They say capitalism. We say fight,” read one. Others said “Paris enraged,” or “If rights aren’t defended, they’ll be trampled.”

“If we don’t speak up now then all our rights that the French have fought for will be lost.” said Nicolas Durand, a 33-year-old actor. “Macron is out of touch, and in bed with the rich. It’s easy for the people in government to say work harder, but their lives have been easy.”

Rubbish piles on Paris streets as strikes continue

VIDEO
Thousands of tons of garbage are piling up on the sidewalks of Paris and other French cities on Wednesday amid a continuing strike against President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform. (March 15)(AP video/Alexander Turnbull)

Ten days into a sanitation workers’ strike, Paris was awash in piles of rancid rubbish, which police ordered cleared out along the march route after troublemakers used garbage to start fires or throw trash at police in recent demonstrations.

A heavy security force accompanied the march through the Left Bank and disbursed a group of black-clad troublemakers that attacked two real estate offices, smashing their windows with fence panels. A total of 22 people were detained, Paris police said.

Security forces responded to violence with tear gas in other cities, including Nantes in western France and Lyon in the southeast.

The committee of seven senators and seven National Assembly lawmakers agreed on the final text Wednesday in a closed-door meeting, and a conservative Senate majority is expected to approve it as early as Thursday.


IT'S PARIS, IT'S POP ART IN THE STREETS   

The situation at the National Assembly is much more complicated.

Macron’s centrist alliance lost its majority in legislative elections last year, forcing the government to count on conservatives’ votes to pass the bill. Leftists and far-right lawmakers are strongly opposed and conservatives are divided, making the outcome unpredictable.

Macron “wishes” to have a vote proceed at the National Assembly, his office said following an evening strategy session with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and ministers in charge of the bill at the Elysee presidential palace. Yet no firm decision was made and government talks were to continue Thursday morning.

Approval in the National Assembly Thursday would give the plan more legitimacy, but rather than face the risk of rejection, Macron could instead use his special constitutional power to force the bill through parliament without a vote.

French government spokesperson Olivier Véran said Wednesday that the bill will continue its way through the legislative process, respecting “all the rules that are provided by our Constitution.”

Republicans party lawmaker Aurelien Pradié — who opposes the reforms — said Wednesday that if this special power is used, he would lodge a challenge to the constitutional council, a higher French legal body.

Train drivers, school teachers, dock workers, oil refinery workers and others joined garbage collectors in walking off their jobs on Wednesday, maneuvering past thousands of tons of garbage piling up on the sidewalks of Paris and other French cities.

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin asked Paris City Hall to force some of the garbage workers to return to work, calling it a public health issue.

The Paris mayor, Socialist Anne Hidalgo, said she supports the strike. Government spokesperson Véran warned that if she doesn’t comply, the Interior Ministry is ready to act instead.

Public transport, meanwhile has been disrupted: About 40% of high-speed trains and half the regional trains have been canceled. The Paris Metro has slowed, and France’s aviation authority warned of delays, saying 20% of the flights at Paris-Orly airport have been canceled.

Paris police said 37,000 participated in the French capital, 11,000 less than Saturday, even as polls show widespread opposition to the pension bill. The leading CGT union said 450,000 participated in Paris and 1.7 million across all of France.

“It will be those who work the hardest who will get a bad deal. It’s always like that,” said Magali Brutel, a 41-year-old nurse. “Very rich people could pay more in taxes — that’s a good solution to pay for an aging population. Why are we effectively taxing the oldest and the poorest?”

___

Associated Press contributors include Alex Turnbull, Nico Garriga and Thomas Adamson in Paris.

'Moment of truth' as Macron's contested pension reform heads to final votes



01:47
A demonstrator holds a sign with an image of French President Emmanuel Macron at a protest against the government's pension reform plan in Paris, France, March 11, 2023. © Benoit Tessier, Reuters

Text by: 
NEWS WIRES
Issued on: 16/03/2023 

A proposed reform of France's pension system, which has sparked massive protests and strikes since the start of the year, is to be put to a vote in parliament on Thursday in a decisive moment for President Emmanuel Macron.

The Senate and lower house National Assembly are set to hold ballots on the legislation to raise the retirement age to 64, with Macron's minority government dependent on the opposition Republicans (LR) party for support.

After months of negotiations, "everyone wants a moment of truth", a senior figure in Macron's Renaissance party told AFP on condition of anonymity. He conceded that there was a risk that "we might lose".

Support appears almost certain in the upper house Senate, but a majority will be more difficult to find in the fractured Assembly, and the ultimate winning or losing margin could come down to a handful of votes.


01:30

"In my group, as well as in the ruling party, there are some MPs who do not want to vote for this reform," the top-ranking Republicans party lawmaker in the Assembly, Olivier Marleix, conceded on Wednesday evening.

The government has argued that raising the retirement age, scrapping privileges for some public sector workers and toughening criteria for a full pension are needed to prevent major deficits building up.

Trade unions have led resistance to the plans since the start of the year, organising some of the biggest demonstrations in decades, which peaked last Tuesday when an estimated 1.28 million people hit the streets.

They say the reform will penalise low-income people in manual jobs who tend to start their careers early, forcing them to work longer than graduates who are less affected by the changes.
Garbage piles

A rolling strike by municipal garbage collectors in Paris over the last week has seen an estimated 7,000 tonnes of uncollected trash pile up in the streets, attracting rats and dismaying tourists.

>> Rubbish piles up in streets of Paris as France’s pension battle enters final stretch

The strike affecting around half of the city's districts has been extended until March 20, with private refuse company Derichebourg carrying out emergency collections in some of the worst-affected areas.

But Derichebourg said Wednesday it would stop intervening after threats from strikers "to block the entrances and exits to our site if we continued collections for health reasons, which are legal and contractual", company executive Thomas Derichebourg told AFP.

Although Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin has urged Paris city authorities to order workers back to work on health grounds, Socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo has refused, writing on Wednesday that the protests were "fair".

Elsewhere, workers from the CFE-CGC trade union in the south of France claimed Wednesday that they had cut the electricity supply to a presidential island retreat in the Mediterranean used by Macron for his summer holidays.

Trains, schools, public services and ports have been affected by strikes over the last six weeks.

Opinion polls show that two-thirds of French people oppose the pension reform and support the protest movement.

Minority government


If Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne fails to find a workable majority in the parliament on Thursday, she could use a power contained in article 49.3 of the constitution, enabling her to ram the legislation through without a vote.

Analysts say forcing it through in this way by decree would deprive her and Macron of democratic legitimacy, however, and would expose the government to a confidence vote, which it might lose.

"We don't want the 49.3," government spokesman Olivier Veran said on Sunday. "We want there to be a positive vote for this bill."

Macron met Borne and senior ministers for last-ditch talks on Wednesday evening to discuss strategy ahead of a vote that could be a turning point for his second term in office.

If the reform is voted in, one question will be whether the unions and demonstrators continue their protests and strikes, or whether the movement fizzles out -- something seen in previous standoffs with the unions.

"It's a last cry from the working population to say that we don't want retirement at 64," the head of the CFDT union, Laurent Berger, told reporters as he joined a march during nationwide protests on Wednesday.

The political implications of voting through a reform opposed by most of the population are also uncertain for Macron and the country at large.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left populist Jean-Luc Melenchon are hoping to capitalise on Macron's unpopularity, having lost out to the former investment banker in last year's presidential election.

(AFP)

Macron faces 'moment of truth' as French pension reform goes to vote

Issued on: 16/03/2023 
Macron wants to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 under a flagship reform of his second term © Sameer Al-Doumy / AFP

Paris (AFP) – A proposed reform of France's pension system, which has sparked massive protests and strikes since the start of the year, is to be put to a vote in parliament on Thursday in a decisive moment for President Emmanuel Macron.

The Senate and lower house National Assembly are set to hold ballots on the legislation to raise the retirement age to 64, with Macron's minority government dependent on the opposition Republicans (LR) party for support.

After months of negotiations, "everyone wants a moment of truth", a senior figure in Macron's Renaissance party told AFP on condition of anonymity. He conceded that there was a risk that "we might lose".

Support appears almost certain in the upper house Senate, but a majority will be more difficult to find in the fractured Assembly, and the ultimate winning or losing margin could come down to a handful of votes.

"In my group, as well as in the ruling party, there are some MPs who do not want to vote for this reform," the top-ranking Republicans party lawmaker in the Assembly, Olivier Marleix, conceded on Wednesday evening.

The government has argued that raising the retirement age, scrapping privileges for some public sector workers and toughening criteria for a full pension are needed to prevent major deficits building up.

The proposed changes have sparked sometimes violent protests © JEFF PACHOUD / AFP

Trade unions have led resistance to the plans since the start of the year, organising some of the biggest demonstrations in decades, which peaked last Tuesday when an estimated 1.28 million people hit the streets.

They say the reform will penalise low-income people in manual jobs who tend to start their careers early, forcing them to work longer than graduates who are less affected by the changes.

Garbage piles

A rolling strike by municipal garbage collectors in Paris over the last week has seen an estimated 7,000 tonnes of uncollected trash pile up in the streets, attracting rats and dismaying tourists.

The strike affecting around half of the city's districts has been extended until March 20, with private refuse company Derichebourg carrying out emergency collections in some of the worst-affected areas.

Rubbish has piled up in Paris over the last week due to a strike by garbage collectors 
© Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP

But Derichebourg said Wednesday it would stop intervening after threats from strikers "to block the entrances and exits to our site if we continued collections for health reasons, which are legal and contractual", company executive Thomas Derichebourg told AFP.

Although Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin has urged Paris city authorities to order workers back to work on health grounds, Socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo has refused, writing on Wednesday that the protests were "fair".

Elsewhere, workers from the CFE-CGC trade union in the south of France claimed Wednesday that they had cut the electricity supply to a presidential island retreat in the Mediterranean used by Macron for his summer holidays.

Trains, schools, public services and ports have been affected by strikes over the last six weeks.

Opinion polls show that two-thirds of French people oppose the pension reform and support the protest movement.

Minority government

If Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne fails to find a workable majority in the parliament on Thursday, she could use a power contained in article 49.3 of the constitution, enabling her to ram the legislation through without a vote.

Analysts say forcing it through in this way by decree would deprive her and Macron of democratic legitimacy, however, and would expose the government to a confidence vote, which it might lose.

"We don't want the 49.3," government spokesman Olivier Veran said on Sunday. "We want there to be a positive vote for this bill."

Macron met Borne and senior ministers for last-ditch talks on Wednesday evening to discuss strategy ahead of a vote that could be a turning point for his second term in office.

If the reform is voted in, one question will be whether the unions and demonstrators continue their protests and strikes, or whether the movement fizzles out -- something seen in previous standoffs with the unions.

"It's a last cry from the working population to say that we don't want retirement at 64," the head of the CFDT union, Laurent Berger, told reporters as he joined a march during nationwide protests on Wednesday.

The political implications of voting through a reform opposed by most of the population are also uncertain for Macron and the country at large.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left populist Jean-Luc Melenchon are hoping to capitalise on Macron's unpopularity, having lost out to the former investment banker in last year's presidential election.

burs-adp/pvh/smw

© 2023 AFP

French pension reform 'is a very traditional right-wing conservative reform'

Issued on: 16/03/2023 - 

05:27
Video by:  Tom Burges WATSON

A proposed reform of France's pension system, which has sparked massive protests and strikes since the start of the year, is to be put to a vote in parliament on Thursday in a decisive moment for President Emmanuel Macron. For more on the French pension reform showdown, FRANCE 24 is joined by Dr. Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economics at Lancaster University Management School. Dr. Foucart expects the legislation to pass, as it has the support of the conservative opposition Republicans (LR) party: "In the end, the content of the reform is a very traditional right-wing conservative reform"






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