ALBERTA ELECTION
NEW POLL SAME AS OLD POLL
New poll shows tight race between NDP and UCP in Calgary: Angus ReidBill Macfarlane
CTV News Calgary Video Journalist
Updated May 17, 2023
A new poll shows a statistical dead heat in Calgary, and the final results are likely to determine which party forms government May 30th.
The poll found 49 per cent of Calgary voters intend to vote for the NDP in the coming election, while 46 per cent planned to vote UCP.
The poll was conducted between May 12 and 16 as a random sample of 1374 Angus Reid Forum members. It is considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20.
The close race tends to favour the UCP.
"It really comes down to the NDP has to have the election of its lifetime in Edmonton and the election of its lifetime in Calgary to be in a position to form government," said Shachi Kurt, president of Angus Reid Institute.
"The challenge is that young people do not vote with the same level of turnout as older people," Kurl says. "So we're seeing a big age skew here. Younger people skewing NDP, older people skewing UCP."
TIGHT VICTORY BRINGS CHALLENGES: MAR
Gary Mar is a former PC cabinet minister and held a number of foreign diplomatic posts. He is now president and CEO of Canada West Foundation, a non-partisan think tank.
He says no matter who wins the most seats, a tight victory could bring its own challenges.
"Regardless of who becomes the premier of Alberta, they may face one of the largest oppositions ever in the history of the province," Mar says. "It'll also have a big impact on how you run your caucus."
"If you've got a small majority, four or five people within your own caucus, could say, look, there's something that you're not paying enough attention to. So you gotta pay attention to us. Otherwise, we'll withdraw our support for your majority vote in the legislature on the main agenda that you want to deal with."
The Angus Reid Poll also showed that both leaders have seen a slip in reputation over the past two weeks. It found 41 per cent of people had a worsening view of UCP leader Danielle Smith, while 32 per cent felt that way about NDP leader Rachel Notley.
PERCEPTION BECOMING REALITY
Kurl says public perception of the leaders is becoming baked in and unlikely to shift substantially down the stretch.
Notley perceived as more trustworthy leader, but Smith's UCP closing party support gap: Leger poll
Story by Matthew Black • May 4, 2023
Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley in Calgary at the beginning of the 2023 Alberta provincial election on May 1.© Provided by Edmonton Journal
Albertans perceive NDP leader Rachel Notley to be more honest, transparent, and trustworthy compared to UCP leader Danielle Smith, according to a new Leger poll that also shows the race between the two parties remains tight amid the opening week of the campaign.
When asked who was the most honest and transparent leader, the poll found 37 per cent favoured Notley to 23 per cent who favoured Smith.
Similarly, 38 per cent indicated Notley was the most trustworthy leader compared to 28 for Smith.
Twenty-nine per cent of respondents said they didn’t know in response to both questions.
That 14-point different on questions of honesty and trustworthiness was the shared second-largest gap between the two leaders, according to survey responses, behind Notley’s 18-point lead in response to which leader will work constructively with the federal government.
Smith has faced recent questions about her apparent reversals on prior comments regarding private health care , subsidized child care , and provincial funding for a new NHL arena .
More recently, she has also been asked about a video from last year that resurfaced this week where she cheered on the blockade at the Coutts border crossing as a “win” that could prompt the end of vaccine mandates.
When asked on Corus radio Wednesday about her changing positions, Smith said she was then talking as a political pundit and not as the premier or party leader.
“I like to explore ideas. I like to talk to people about a wide range of issues,” she said.
“When you’re in government, it’s different.”
In her first official campaign speech Monday, Notley took aim at Smith’s changes of heart.
“Even if you don’t always agree with me on everything, you know me and what you know is that I say what I mean and I mean what I say,” said Notley.
The Leger poll surveyed 1,000 paid panelists between April 28 to May 1, with the number of respondents split roughly evenly between metro Edmonton, metro Calgary and the rest of Alberta.
Leger states that as the poll was a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported.
The survey also shows that as the campaign approaches the end of its first week, the gap between the two front-running parties has narrowed.
The NDP have a small lead province-wide among decided voters, according to the poll, with 45 per cent support compared to 43 per cent for the UCP.
The data indicates that the NDP’s lead has progressively shrank from four per cent in February and three per cent in March.
Prior election numbers indicate the result of the election may come down to a number of Calgary ridings.
In that region, respondents equally believed Smith or Notley would make the best premier, the poll shows, with each leader receiving support in 28 per cent of replies, while 22 per cent said they didn’t know.
About 11 per cent of decided voters who were surveyed indicated support for a party other than the UCP or NDP, led by the Alberta Party (4 per cent) and the Liberal Party (3 per cent).
The election is scheduled for May 29 with advanced voting open between May 23 and 27.
mblack@postmedia.com
Twitter @ByMatthewBlack
Story by Matthew Black • May 4, 2023
Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley in Calgary at the beginning of the 2023 Alberta provincial election on May 1.© Provided by Edmonton Journal
Albertans perceive NDP leader Rachel Notley to be more honest, transparent, and trustworthy compared to UCP leader Danielle Smith, according to a new Leger poll that also shows the race between the two parties remains tight amid the opening week of the campaign.
When asked who was the most honest and transparent leader, the poll found 37 per cent favoured Notley to 23 per cent who favoured Smith.
Similarly, 38 per cent indicated Notley was the most trustworthy leader compared to 28 for Smith.
Twenty-nine per cent of respondents said they didn’t know in response to both questions.
That 14-point different on questions of honesty and trustworthiness was the shared second-largest gap between the two leaders, according to survey responses, behind Notley’s 18-point lead in response to which leader will work constructively with the federal government.
Smith has faced recent questions about her apparent reversals on prior comments regarding private health care , subsidized child care , and provincial funding for a new NHL arena .
More recently, she has also been asked about a video from last year that resurfaced this week where she cheered on the blockade at the Coutts border crossing as a “win” that could prompt the end of vaccine mandates.
When asked on Corus radio Wednesday about her changing positions, Smith said she was then talking as a political pundit and not as the premier or party leader.
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“I like to explore ideas. I like to talk to people about a wide range of issues,” she said.
“When you’re in government, it’s different.”
In her first official campaign speech Monday, Notley took aim at Smith’s changes of heart.
“Even if you don’t always agree with me on everything, you know me and what you know is that I say what I mean and I mean what I say,” said Notley.
The Leger poll surveyed 1,000 paid panelists between April 28 to May 1, with the number of respondents split roughly evenly between metro Edmonton, metro Calgary and the rest of Alberta.
Leger states that as the poll was a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported.
The survey also shows that as the campaign approaches the end of its first week, the gap between the two front-running parties has narrowed.
The NDP have a small lead province-wide among decided voters, according to the poll, with 45 per cent support compared to 43 per cent for the UCP.
The data indicates that the NDP’s lead has progressively shrank from four per cent in February and three per cent in March.
Prior election numbers indicate the result of the election may come down to a number of Calgary ridings.
In that region, respondents equally believed Smith or Notley would make the best premier, the poll shows, with each leader receiving support in 28 per cent of replies, while 22 per cent said they didn’t know.
About 11 per cent of decided voters who were surveyed indicated support for a party other than the UCP or NDP, led by the Alberta Party (4 per cent) and the Liberal Party (3 per cent).
The election is scheduled for May 29 with advanced voting open between May 23 and 27.
mblack@postmedia.com
Twitter @ByMatthewBlack
Alberta's NDP and UCP deadlocked as campaign officially begins: poll
Alberta's election campaign trail: A look at Day 2
Tight race for the Alberta election: poll
Melissa Gilligan
CTVNewsCalgary.ca
Tight race for the Alberta election: poll
Melissa Gilligan
CTVNewsCalgary.ca
Digital Journalist
Updated May 2, 2023
A new poll suggests Alberta's UCP and NDP are locked in a dead heat as the political parties seek support in the upcoming provincial election.
The writ dropped Monday and Albertans head to the polls May 29, though both parties have been unofficially campaigning for weeks. Follow full election coverage on Alberta Votes 2023
A poll released by ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. on Tuesday indicates that if a provincial election were held today, 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the NDP while another 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the UCP.
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The poll found 13 per cent of Alberta voters are undecided.
"This province-wide parity between the NDP and UCP has been a feature of our provincial tracking for over six months, with several regional variances also largely locked into place," ThinkHQ noted in a release.
According to the survey, the NDP hold a "sizeable" lead in the Edmonton census metropolitan area (CMA), with 57 per cent support from decided voters compared to 33 per cent supporting the UCP.
Updated May 2, 2023
A new poll suggests Alberta's UCP and NDP are locked in a dead heat as the political parties seek support in the upcoming provincial election.
The writ dropped Monday and Albertans head to the polls May 29, though both parties have been unofficially campaigning for weeks. Follow full election coverage on Alberta Votes 2023
A poll released by ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. on Tuesday indicates that if a provincial election were held today, 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the NDP while another 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the UCP.
RELATED STORIESWrit drops for Alberta provincial election on May 29
Lethbridge candidates begin campaigning as provincial election officially kicks off
The poll found 13 per cent of Alberta voters are undecided.
"This province-wide parity between the NDP and UCP has been a feature of our provincial tracking for over six months, with several regional variances also largely locked into place," ThinkHQ noted in a release.
According to the survey, the NDP hold a "sizeable" lead in the Edmonton census metropolitan area (CMA), with 57 per cent support from decided voters compared to 33 per cent supporting the UCP.
A new poll from ThinkHQ suggests Alberta's UCP and NDP are locked in a dead-heat as the pair seek support in the upcoming provincial election. (ThinkHQ)Meanwhile, in the Calgary CMA, decided voters are virtually tied, with 47 per cent saying they'd vote NDP and 46 per cent saying they'd vote UCP.
Outside of the province's two largest cities, support for the UCP outranks the NDP; the survey suggests the UCP have support from at least 20 per cent more decided voters than the NDP in the north, central and south regions of the province.
"We know that the NDP are going to do well in Edmonton, likely even picking up a few seats in the surrounding region," said ThinkHQ president Marc Henry.
"Meanwhile, the UCP are going to win, by large margins, in many areas outside of the two largest cities.”
ThinkHQ noted in its release that Calgary will be the "real battleground" for the election.
"The UCP have a slightly easier path to victory than the NDP, but it’s really going to boil down to about a dozen toss-up and leaning ridings, many of which are in Calgary,” it said.
"This is going to be a very interesting election.”
ThinkHQ also noted "significant" gender and generational gaps in voter support in Alberta, saying women and younger voters showed a "distinct preference" for the NDP, while men and those over the age of 55 offered a similar inclination toward the UCP.
The report from ThinkHQ was compiled through an online survey of 1,529 random adult Albertans through Angus Reid between April 25 and 29. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Outside of the province's two largest cities, support for the UCP outranks the NDP; the survey suggests the UCP have support from at least 20 per cent more decided voters than the NDP in the north, central and south regions of the province.
"We know that the NDP are going to do well in Edmonton, likely even picking up a few seats in the surrounding region," said ThinkHQ president Marc Henry.
"Meanwhile, the UCP are going to win, by large margins, in many areas outside of the two largest cities.”
ThinkHQ noted in its release that Calgary will be the "real battleground" for the election.
"The UCP have a slightly easier path to victory than the NDP, but it’s really going to boil down to about a dozen toss-up and leaning ridings, many of which are in Calgary,” it said.
"This is going to be a very interesting election.”
ThinkHQ also noted "significant" gender and generational gaps in voter support in Alberta, saying women and younger voters showed a "distinct preference" for the NDP, while men and those over the age of 55 offered a similar inclination toward the UCP.
The report from ThinkHQ was compiled through an online survey of 1,529 random adult Albertans through Angus Reid between April 25 and 29. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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