Asia heatwaves made 30 times more likely by climate change: study
Issued on: 17/05/2023
New Delhi (AFP) – Climate change made record-breaking deadly heatwaves in Bangladesh, India, Laos and Thailand last month at least 30 times more likely, according to a study published Wednesday.
Parts of India saw temperatures above 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) in mid-April, with at least 11 deaths near Mumbai attributed to heat stroke on a single day. In Bangladesh, Dhaka suffered its hottest day in almost 60 years.
The city of Tak in Thailand saw its highest-ever temperature of 45.4 Celsius, while Sainyabuli province in Laos hit 42.9 Celsius, an all-time national temperature record, the study by the World Weather Attribution group said.
Two deaths were reported in Thailand, but the real toll was likely higher as the extreme heat caused widespread hospitalisations, with the poor and vulnerable the worst affected.
The new study by international climate scientists looked at the average maximum temperature and the maximum heat index, which includes humidity.
"In both regions, the researchers found that climate change made the humid heatwave at least 30 times more likely, with temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius hotter than they would have been without climate change," WWA said in a statement.
"Until overall greenhouse gas emissions are halted, global temperatures will continue to increase and events like this will become more frequent and severe," it added.
The analysis also found that such events in India and Bangladesh, previously once-a-century, can now be expected around once every five years because of human-caused climate change.
For Laos and Thailand, if global temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius -- as will happen within around 30 years if emissions are not cut rapidly -- such extreme events could happen every 20 years, compared to every two centuries now, the study said.
"We see again and again that climate change dramatically increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, one of the deadliest weather events there are," said Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, who was involved in the study.
"Still, heat action plans are only being introduced very slowly across the globe. They need to be an absolute priority adaptation action everywhere, but in particular in places where high humidity enhances the impacts of heatwaves," she added.
Scientists were previously reluctant to directly link a particular event to climate change, but in recent years a new field of "attribution science", like that done by the WWA, has emerged.
Some weather events have a more complicated relationship to global warming than others, with the relationship to heatwaves and increased rainfall relatively easy to study.
Other phenomena such as droughts, snowstorms, tropical storms and wildfires are more complicated however, according to the WWA.
© 2023 AFP
Issued on: 17/05/2023
Climate change made recent deadly heatwaves in Bangladesh, India, Laos and Thailand at least 30 times more likely, according to a new study
© SANJAY KANOJIA / AFP/File
New Delhi (AFP) – Climate change made record-breaking deadly heatwaves in Bangladesh, India, Laos and Thailand last month at least 30 times more likely, according to a study published Wednesday.
Parts of India saw temperatures above 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) in mid-April, with at least 11 deaths near Mumbai attributed to heat stroke on a single day. In Bangladesh, Dhaka suffered its hottest day in almost 60 years.
The city of Tak in Thailand saw its highest-ever temperature of 45.4 Celsius, while Sainyabuli province in Laos hit 42.9 Celsius, an all-time national temperature record, the study by the World Weather Attribution group said.
Two deaths were reported in Thailand, but the real toll was likely higher as the extreme heat caused widespread hospitalisations, with the poor and vulnerable the worst affected.
The new study by international climate scientists looked at the average maximum temperature and the maximum heat index, which includes humidity.
"In both regions, the researchers found that climate change made the humid heatwave at least 30 times more likely, with temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius hotter than they would have been without climate change," WWA said in a statement.
"Until overall greenhouse gas emissions are halted, global temperatures will continue to increase and events like this will become more frequent and severe," it added.
The analysis also found that such events in India and Bangladesh, previously once-a-century, can now be expected around once every five years because of human-caused climate change.
For Laos and Thailand, if global temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius -- as will happen within around 30 years if emissions are not cut rapidly -- such extreme events could happen every 20 years, compared to every two centuries now, the study said.
"We see again and again that climate change dramatically increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, one of the deadliest weather events there are," said Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, who was involved in the study.
"Still, heat action plans are only being introduced very slowly across the globe. They need to be an absolute priority adaptation action everywhere, but in particular in places where high humidity enhances the impacts of heatwaves," she added.
Scientists were previously reluctant to directly link a particular event to climate change, but in recent years a new field of "attribution science", like that done by the WWA, has emerged.
Some weather events have a more complicated relationship to global warming than others, with the relationship to heatwaves and increased rainfall relatively easy to study.
Other phenomena such as droughts, snowstorms, tropical storms and wildfires are more complicated however, according to the WWA.
© 2023 AFP
Workers unload blocks of ice at a wet market in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 27, 2023.
Andre Malerba—Bloomberg/Getty Images
BY JASMINE NG / BLOOMBERG
UPDATED: MAY 8, 2023
Asia remains in the grip of a blistering heat wave, chiming with predictions from climate scientists that 2023 could be the world’s hottest year.
In an ominous sign ahead of the northern hemisphere summer, an emerging El Nino weather pattern is pushing the mercury to unprecedented levels in southern parts of the continent.
Vietnam reported its highest ever temperature of 44.2C over the weekend, triggering power shortage warnings, while Laos also likely broke records. The Philippines cut classroom hours after the heat index reached the “danger” zone, reflecting the potentially deadly combination of heat and humidity.
Read More: How Heat Waves Could Have Long-Term Impacts on Your Health
The scorching temperatures follow a pattern of increasing extreme weather, caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, that’s sending the world into uncharted territory. The sweltering conditions are testing the ability of governments to protect public health and also to prevent major disruptions to agriculture and power generation in economies that are still recovering from the ravages of Covid-19.
El Nino — characterized by warmer ocean temperatures across the Pacific — has far-reaching impacts on weather patterns around the world. It could bring relief to drought-parched areas of Argentina and the southern US, while blanketing parts of Asia and Australia with hotter, drier conditions. Coffee, sugar, palm oil and cocoa crops would be especially vulnerable.
The prolonged dryness across Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Thailand is due to suppressed rainfall over the past winter, said Tieh-Yong Koh, an associate professor and weather and climate scientist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences.
Read More: How to Build Up Your Heat Tolerance to Prepare for a Hotter World
“Because dry soil heats up faster than moist soil, a hot anomaly naturally forms as spring arrives,” he said, adding that this has been exacerbated by global warming over the past decades.
Temperatures in Thailand remained above 40C in many northern and central regions over much of last week, pushing power demand to a fresh peak. A group of businesses and banks have asked the government to prepare an action plan to deal with a potential drought that they say might last for three years.
South East Asia's heating has been off the charts for several weeks. It's gone nuts in the past 2 days:
>Laos: hottest day in history, 43.5C
>Vietnam: hottest day in history, 44.1C
>Dozens of monthly records broken
Thailand recorded its hottest day ever on April 15 (45.4C) pic.twitter.com/uFddhbXbxG— Assaad Razzouk (@AssaadRazzouk) May 7, 2023
Rainfall in Malaysia may be as much as 40% lower in some areas, which could put palm oil production at risk in one of the world’s biggest producers of the commodity. Authorities are closely monitoring the return of forest fires and air pollution. An El Nino in 2015 caused a particularly bad episode of haze that was one of the worst environmental disasters in Southeast Asia.
Read More: Where We’ll End Up Living as the Planet Burns
Elsewhere in Asia, scorching temperatures have also roasted parts of China, India and Bangladesh over the past few weeks. Yunnan province, a major aluminum hub in southwest China, suffered its worst drought in a decade last month. India is on alert for more heat waves following soaring temperatures in April that prompted school closures in some states and caused at least 11 people to die of heat stroke after attending an event.
—With assistance from Thomas Kutty Abraham, Nguyen Kieu Giang, Manolo Serapio Jr. and Anuradha Raghu.
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