ALBERTA ELECTION 2023 ANALYSIS
The NDP are the official Opposition in Alberta. And screaming separatist Danielle Smith is now Premier for real. After a handful platitudes in her acceptance speech she immediately declared war on the "Trudeau Government in Ottawa", as to be expected. So we can expect that the Smith Sovereignty Act (modeled on American States Rights) will come roaring out of the legislature at first sitting.
UCP is a not a conservative party it is a wannabe Americanized party; Landlord Libertarianism under Smith.
As will her attempt to cut Albertans off of our CPP benefits for a made in Alberta pension plan, one look at the Conservatives handling of the Heritage Trust fund or its attempts to privatize provincial pensions under Klein. Then the late to the game creation of a provincial investment fund AIMCO like CPPIB, or Ontario Teachers Pension fund. Unlike them AIMCO promptly lost millions including the Alberta Teachers Pension Funds, which they were sued over. Oh yes bring on that Provincial pension fund.
This was an issue since Kenney won in 2019. It was an issue to the NDP opposition as well Alberta Mayors, the Alberta Federation of Labour. But it was not an issue in the election.
And that is why the NDP lost their chance at government. They made the issue about the leaders. The negative attacks on Smith by Notley and visa versa distracted from Policy and Issues. In fact neither party ran on issues. Especially climate change as the north of the province burned with wildfires through out the election
Smith in her winners speech whined about nasty attacks by third party ads, claiming with no evidence that they spent more then in any other election. She would be right except that those third parties were on UCP's side with personal attacks on Notley popping up on TikTok, YouTube and Facebook, in online ads on my newsfeeds etc.
This was the strategy the NDP failed to use. Again their reticence to use the Internet and now social media was the way the Party should have worked with their Labour ,Social Justice, Environmentalist lobbies to form an effective counter to Alberta First the extremist separatist lobby. The NDP allies were not mobilized to do the negative and attack ads on UCP. Instead the party made it as much about Rachel as UCP did.
Policy be damned the Party said. The election could have been in a Meta boxing ring for all the discussion of the NDP agenda for Alberta.
Wildfires welcomed Rachel when she was into her tenth month as Premier in 2016. Wildfires are still raging in Alberta on a more regular basis in the north of the province which is oil sands country and that northern region of the province voted solidly UCP, including the riding named after Notley's father.
It is this region that faces Environmental and Climate change accelerating with regularity of Wildfires followed shortly after with Floods; as they say 'of biblical proportions'.
These have been occurring since Ralph Klein was premier, with the worst flooding in Alberta history occurring in 2013 during the premiership of lame duck Alison Redford, the first female Premier of Alberta stabbed in the back by the misogynist leadership of the PC.
The Climate Crisis apparently was not occurring in Alberta during the election.
If anyone is to blame for a failed strategy to win Government, it is the Communications and Strategy committee of the NDP. The brain trust that lost the 2019 election by attacking Kenney used the same strategy again.
Notley announced she was staying on as Leader, and as Leader of His Majesty's Loyal opposition. And well she should. some pundits sound bites claimed she would have to step down, even after she announced she wasn't. Rachel took this party from four seats to 37 the largest unified opposition in Alberta history.
It is also unheard of in Alberta Politics provincial or federal for a Party leader to stay on after a defeat let alone two. But that is politics in Alberta to build a movement or Party to win government you must look like the government in waiting, and that is what Rachel is doing.
Pause for a moment and ponder this. In 2015 the NDP swept way the Conservative WildRose parties to become government with untold new MLA's.
It immediately faced an economic crisis left by the previous PC government. The oil industry crashed in 2014 leaving Alberta in a growing financial crisis. Through this the fledgling NDP government had to deal with a monolithic Conservative bureaucracy as well as ending Conservative austerity programs. It was constantly under attack by rent a crowd protesters from Kenney's party, whether it was Bill 6 to protect farm workers or the right for LGBTQ clubs in schools.
The NDP showed strong winning the rural mountain riding of Banff Canmore. The also won another seat in Lethbridge. Which will be reviewed by Elections Alberta because the races were so close all night long and were only a few hundred votes or less for the winner.
The NDP swept Edmonton and Sherwood Park for the first time. The last three UCP seats in the city were lost the NDP.
In doing so they finally unified the opposition under one movement banner ( as the NDP likes to call themselves) eliminating lesser parties like the long standing fly in the ointment the Alberta Liberals. Now there are literally rump parties the Greens and the Alberta Party (yes those pesky Liberals changed their names) who barely impacted the vote count for the winner.
Alberta is no longer a one party state!
First it was twenty years of the United Farmers Of Alberta government then the 1930's under the Social Credit party until 1971. Then it was 44 years of the Lougheed/Klein Progressive (sic) Conservatives. Let that sink in dear reader. This province was a one party state longer than the Soviet Union or Castro's Cuba
While the NDP did not win government they created a movement for democracy in Alberta which placed them in this historical moment of creating the largest unified and diverse left wing opposition ever in Alberta's existence as province.
Alberta has left behind the one party state mentality of the rural petite bourgeoise. The NDP is the party of the future as it took more seats in Calgary then it ever has. It is the party of the metropolitan future for Alberta.
The NDP dragged Alberta kicking and screaming into the traditional two party rule in Canada. Our motto is not the Yankee "the land of the free" Smith promotes it is POGG. Peace, Order and Good Government. With the NDP strength in Opposition this will be assured.
EUGENE PLAWIUK
Former chair of the ABNDP Communications and Strategy election committee 1997 which elected two NDP MLA's ( Raj Pannu future party leader and Pam Barrett the party leader at the time ) after the NDP were decimated by Klein in the 1993 election. We also put the NDP on the web at that time, being the first Canadian political party to do so during an election.
SEE
THE ALBERTA NDP THE PARTY OF OIL WORKERS
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