Indirect effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict revealed: global food supply at risk
IMAGE: THE RESEARCHERS CREATED AN INTERACTIVE VISUALIZATION BASED ON THEIR DATA AND RESULTS. THIS ALLOWS EVERYONE TO EXPLORE GLOBAL CONNECTIONS AND TEST THEIR OWN SCENARIOS. view more
CREDIT: © COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB
192 countries and 125 different foods: A recent study by the Complexity Science Hub reveals interdependencies in the global food supply. Here, the researchers have uncovered the profound - also indirect - effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
At the latest, the Russia-Ukraine conflict revealed loud and clear that the global food supply chain acts as a complex network, connecting nations and facilitating the spread of disruptions from local to distant regions. „However, previous studies often focus on direct dependencies and overlook indirect dependencies resulting from the unavailability of essential inputs, making a comprehensive assessment of the global food system difficult,” emphasizes research director Stefan Thurner of the Complexity Science Hub.
INDIRECT EFFECTS OFTEN EXCEED DIRECT EFFECTS
To bridge this gap, the research team developed a dynamic global food system model, incorporating data from 192 countries and territories and encompassing 125 food and agricultural products. “This model enabled us to simulate shocks to specific products and countries, closely monitoring the subsequent effects across the entire supply chain,” explains Moritz Laber of the Complexity Science Hub. By quantifying the relative reduction in product availability compared to a baseline scenario (without the shock), the researchers gained valuable insights into the magnitude of these shocks. Remarkably, they found that indirect effects often exceeded direct effects. For example, a shock to Ukrainian corn production led to a 13% decline in pork availability in Southern Europe. In comparison, a shock to Ukrainian pork production had a negligible effect of less than 1%.
UP TO 85% LOSS OF MAIZE
In a worst-case scenario simulation, where agricultural production in Ukraine was completely lost due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the study unveiled diverse effects on products and regions worldwide. „The loss of grains, particularly maize, reached up to 85%, while edible oils, especially sunflower oil, experienced losses of up to 89%. Additionally, certain meat types, such as poultry, suffered losses of up to 25% in various countries,“ says Laber. The number of products for which a region is dependent on Ukraine varies greatly: Southern Europe is the most affected, with 19 out of 125 products with losses of more than 10%, followed by West Asia and North Africa, where this is the case for 15 and 11 products respectively.
These findings emphasize that localized production disruptions have far-reaching implications, extending beyond geographic boundaries through trade relationships and the entire production chain. Consequently, it is imperative to consider both direct and indirect effects when estimating losses and formulating effective interventions.
RISK NOT ONLY FROM WARS
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its second year, food prices are still above 2021 levels, according to the European Council. In addition, various events, including extreme weather events, economic crises, and geopolitical tensions, can trigger similar disruptions. This underscores the importance of exploring interdependencies within global food supply chains and gaining a comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect impacts of local shocks to raise awareness among policymakers and stakeholders of otherwise overlooked risks within the global food system.
These research findings are a valuable first leap in understanding the complex dynamics of global food supply chains and their vulnerability to local shocks. Further research is needed to map them at a more granular level considering individual products and subnational scales at a higher temporal resolution. Moreover, at present, the model assumes that countries do not change their trading partners after a shock. However, restructuring trade relations may exacerbate existing inequalities, as wealthier countries may secure remaining resources at higher prices from alternative suppliers.
In March, the CSH co-founded the Austrian Supply Chain Intelligence Institute (ASCII) to contribute even more to making supply dependencies visible in the future.
_____
FIND OUT MORE
The study “Shock propagation in international multilayer food-production network determines global food availability: the case of the Ukraine war” has been published in Nature Food (doi: 10.1038/s43016-023-00771-4): https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00771-4.
To make these scientific findings accessible to all, the Complexity Science Hub has developed the following:
- A freely accessible, interactive visualization where anyone can explore global contexts and test their own scenarios.
- A video that explains how this visualization works
- An Internet Rallye for schools where children can explore global interrelationships in a playful way
Comparison of the relative loss (RL) of various products in different world regions due to indirect, production-related effects (left half of each cell) to direct, trade-related effects (right half of each cell). For a shock to Ukrainian maize production (upper panel) indirect effects often exceed direct effects of shocks to the respective products, while indirect effects are less important in the case of shocks to sunflower seed production in Ukraine (lower panel).
CREDIT
© Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)/CSH
_____
ABOUT THE COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB
The mission of the Complexity Science Hub (CSH Vienna) is to host, educate, and inspire complex systems scientists dedicated to making sense of Big Data to boost science and society. Scientists at the Complexity Science Hub develop methods for the scientific, quantitative, and predictive understanding of complex systems.
The CSH Vienna is a joint initiative of AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Central European University CEU, Danube University Krems, Graz University of Technology, Medical University of Vienna, TU Wien, VetMedUni Vienna, Vienna University of Economics and Business, and Austrian Economic Chambers (WKO). https://www.csh.ac.at
JOURNAL
Nature Food
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Computational simulation/modeling
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
People
ARTICLE TITLE
Shock propagation from the Russia–Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability
Change food choices to increase chances of tackling global warming
Action to protect the planet against the impact of climate change will fall short unless we reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global food system, which now makes up a third of man-made GHG emissions, a new study reveals.
The largest emission increase within food supply chains is triggered by beef and dairy consumption in rapidly developing countries, such as China and India, whilst emissions per head in developed countries with a high percentage of animal-based food declined.
The United Nations projects that an additional 70 percent of the current food demand will be needed to feed the world's estimated population of 9.1 billion by 2050.
Publishing their findings today (15 June) in Nature Food, an international group of scientists led by the Universities of Groningen and Birmingham, say that the growth of the global population and rising demand for emission-intensive food are likely to boost emissions further.
“A global shift in diets, including reducing excessive intake of red meat and improving shares of plant-based protein – will not only reduce emissions but avoid health risks such as obesity and cardiovascular disease” stated corresponding author, Prof. Klaus Hubacek from the University of Groningen.
Another corresponding author, Dr Yuli Shan, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “The agrifood system drives global land use and agricultural activities - contributing to around one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Population growth, expansion of food production, and an increase in animal-based diets are likely to further increase emissions and squeeze the global carbon budget.
The first author, Yanxian Li, a PhD student at the University of Groningen added that “Mitigating emissions at every stage of food supply chains from production to consumption is critical if we are to limit global warming. However, widespread and lasting diet shifts are very difficult to achieve quickly, so incentives that encourage consumers to reduce red meat or buy products with higher environmental dividends could help to reduce food emissions.”
Researchers analysed data linking emissions to consumers between 2000 and 2019, revealing that in 2019, food consumption in the five highest emitting countries, China (2.0 Gt CO2-eq), India (1.3 Gt), Indonesia (1.1 Gt), Brazil (1.0 Gt) and the USA (1.0 Gt), was responsible for more than 40% of global food supply chain emission.
Annual global GHG emissions associated with food increased by 14% (2 Gt CO2-eq) over the 20-year period. The substantial increase in consuming animal-based products contributed to some 95% of the global emissions rise, accounting for almost half of total food emissions. Beef and dairy contributed 32% and 46% of the increase in global animal-based emissions.
Consumption of grains and oil crops is responsible for 43% (3.4 Gt CO2-eq in 2019) and 23% (1.9 Gt CO2-eq) of global plant-based emissions respectively, whilst rice contributes to over half of the global grain-related emissions (1.7 Gt CO2-eq), with Indonesia (20%), China (18%), and India (10%) being the top three contributors.
Soybean (0.6 Gt CO2-eq) and palm oil (0.9 Gt CO2-eq) have the largest shares in global emissions from oil crops with 30% and 46%, respectively. Indonesia, the world's leading consumer of palm oil, has the largest emissions from palm oil (35% of the global total in 2019), followed by Southeast Asia (13%), Western Europe (10%), and China (9%).
The study reveals considerable differences regarding emission patterns and the reasons behind these trends – classifiable as follows:
- Countries with high per capita food emission levels and dominant livestock emissions (mainly from red meat) (North America, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean);
- Developed countries which heavily rely on imports and outsource substantial amounts of food-related emissions (Japan and Europe);
- Rapidly developing countries with substantial emission increase driven by rapid population growth or improved living standards (China, South Asia, Near East & North Africa); and
- Countries with emission-intensive production, mainly with extensive land-use change activities (Brazil, Indonesia, and South and Central African regions).
The researchers also note that a series of trade policies are accelerating emissions through increasing food imports from countries/regions with emission-intensive production – for example, the EU’s Green Deal encourages less intensive agriculture in Europe and increasing imports of agricultural products from countries such as Brazil, USA, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
ENDS
For more information, please contact Tony Moran, International Communications Manager, University of Birmingham on +44 (0)782 783 2312 or t.moran@bham.ac.uk. For out-of-hours enquiries, please call +44 (0) 7789 921 165.
Notes to Editors
- The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions, its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers and teachers and more than 8,000 international students from over 150 countries.
- ‘Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains’ - Yanxian Li, Honglin Zhong, Yuli Shan, Ye Hang, Dan Wang, Yannan Zhou, Klaus Hubacek is published by Nature Food. Please feel free to include the following link to the research paper (live post-embargo) in any online news stories: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00768-z
- Participating institutions include the University of Birmingham, UK; University of Groningen, the Netherlands; Shandong University, Weihai, China; and University of Shanghai for Science and Technology.
JOURNAL
Nature Food
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Data/statistical analysis
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
People
ARTICLE TITLE
Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
15-Jun-2023
No comments:
Post a Comment