Graham Keeley
Mon, 24 July 2023
Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan leader, who is exiled in Belgium - Anadolu Agency
Catalan separatists have demanded an independence referendum in exchange for propping up Spain’s Socialists to form a government after yesterday’s election failed to find an outright winner.
Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan leader who is wanted by the Spanish state and has spent nearly six years in self-imposed exile in Belgium, is now an unexpected kingmaker for Spain’s next government.
The former Catalan leader is the ideological head of the Together for Catalonia, a hardline separatist party which has seven MPs.
Mr Puigdemont could help the ruling Socialists form a coalition government but in return his party has demanded a referendum on independence and an amnesty for those convicted of crimes in connection with the failed 2017 Catalan independence bid.
“Puigdemont or deadlock”, read the front-page headline in ABC, a right-wing daily.
However, hopes the exiled leader would help get Spain out of political deadlock were dealt a blow on Monday when a Spanish prosecutor asked a judge to issue a warrant for Mr Puigdemont’s arrest.
Embezzlement
Mr Puigdemont is wanted by the Spanish justice system for disobedience and embezzlement charges over his role on the breakaway plot six years ago. The offences carry a jail term of up to eight years.
“One day you are decisive in order to form a Spanish government, the next day Spain orders your arrest,” Mr Puigdemont said in response to the request for his arrest.
Spain was heading for a hung parliament after no party won a majority in Sunday’s election.
The opposition conservative People’s Party (PP) and the far-right Vox party won the most seats in parliament with a combined 169 – short of the 176 needed for a majority and confounding a series of poll predictions. No parties are likely to join a coalition with these parties because of the involvement of Vox.
Despite not living up to pollsters expectations to win Sunday’s election, People’s Party (PP) leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo was trying to form a government.
The PP won 136 seats which means if these were added to the 33 of far-right Vox, both right-wing parties only have 169 seats short of the 176 needed for a majority in the 350-seat parliament.
Mr Feijóo said he was conducting talks with Vox, the Basque Nationalist Party, which has five seats, Coalicion Canarias, a regional party with one seat, and the Navarrese People’s Union, which also has one MP.
If all parties supported a PP-Vox coalition it would give seven seats - just enough to form a government, but it is unlikely these political groups would back a coalition in which Vox was a part.
“My duty is to lead talks to form a government,” Mr Feijóo said.
Vox has said it was content to join the opposition to continue the fight to oppose “left-wing extremists”.
Vox leader Santiago Abascal accused the PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, of “demobilising” the right-wing vote by distancing himself from a coalition with the far-right party he described as extremist.
Despite Mr Feijóo baulking at the far-right party’s wish to repeal legislation protecting women from gender violence and its climate change scepticism, the PP spent the pre-electoral period negotiating alliances with Vox in several Spanish regions.
If Mr Sánchez does a deal with Mr Puigdemont, it will play into the hands of the right, which portrays the socialist prime minister as an ally of those who want to “destroy Spain”.
After the results were in on Sunday night, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the Madrid regional president, tweeted: “Thanks to the more than eight million Spaniards who have voted for us. The result of these elections, which the PP has won, cannot become a weapon in the hands of those who want to destroy Spain.”
‘Window of opportunity’
The Socialists and far-left Sumar won 153 but have more chances of negotiating deals with Basque and Catalans as they did in 2020.
In order to grant a referendum, Mr Sánchez, who opposes Catalan independence would have to change the Spanish Constitution with the support of parliament which he is unlikely to achieve.
It is within the prime minister’s power to grant amnesties, but the move could be politically damaging.
Mr Sánchez has already come under fire for pardoning jailed Catalan leaders.
Jordi Turull, secretary general of Together for Catalonia, said his party would use the “window of opportunity” created by the election to push for independence.
“The state knows that if it wants to negotiate with us, there are two issues that are fundamental and generate consensus in Catalonia which are amnesty and self-determination,” he said during an interview on RAC1 radio station.
Hard to negotiate
José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said any deal between the Socialists and Mr Puigdemont would be hard to negotiate.
“Sanchez could try to get the help of Puigdemont but it will not be easy. He will have to make more concessions to Catalonia. A referendum or amnesty is not possible,” he told The Telegraph.
Talks on a deal on Gibraltar will stall without a government in Madrid, adding to the uncertainty for the Rock’s 34,000 residents.
The prospect of weeks of political wrangling might dent the economy which is slowing down after the post-pandemic rebound, analysts said.
Efforts to find a new government have already started but once parliament returns on Aug 17, politicians have two months to form another government, or another election is called.
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