Wednesday, July 19, 2023

The bridge to Crimea is crucial to Russia's war effort in Ukraine and to asserting Moscow's control




In this handout photo taken from video released by the Investigative Committee of Russia on Monday, July 17, 2023, investigators work at an automobile link of the Crimean Bridge connecting Russian mainland and Crimean peninsula over the Kerch Strait not far from Kerch, Crimea. Traffic on the key bridge connecting Crimea to Russia's mainland was halted on Monday, July 17, after reports of explosions that Crimean officials said were from a Ukrainian attack.
 (Investigative Committee of Russia via AP)


The Associated Press
Updated Mon, July 17, 2023 

The bridge connecting Crimea and Russia carries heavy significance for Moscow, both logistically and psychologically, as a key artery for military and civilian supplies and as an assertion of Kremlin control of the peninsula it illegally annexed in 2014.

An attack on the bridge before dawn Monday, killing a couple and seriously injuring their daughter, left a span of the roadway hanging perilously. The damage initially appeared to be less severe than what was caused by an assault in October, but it highlighted the bridge’s vulnerability.

Russia blamed Ukraine for both attacks. A spokesman for the Ukrainian Security Service on Monday did not directly acknowledge responsibility but said the service would reveal details about organizing the blast once Ukraine achieves victory in the war.

A CRITICAL CONNECTION

The Crimean Peninsula extends south from Ukraine’s mainland, with road connections on two isthmuses, one of which is less than 2 kilometers (1 mile) wide, and by a bridge from a narrow spit. Those links to Ukraine go into territory occupied by Russian forces that come under attack from the Ukrainian military.

The bridge, which connects Crimea’s eastern extremity with Russia’s Krasnodar region, provides the only fixed link that steers clear of the disputed territory.

The 19-kilometer (12-mile) bridge over the Kerch Strait that links the Black and Azov seas carries road and rail traffic on separate sections and is vital to sustaining Russia’s military operations in southern Ukraine.

A SYMBOLIC STRUCTURE

The bridge is the longest in Europe and a subject of considerable pride in Russia. Construction began in 2016, about two years after Russia's annexation, and was completed in little more than two years. The pace of construction was impressive but led some critics to question whether it was hastily designed and built.

The bridge was constructed despite strong objections from Ukraine and is the most visible and constant reminder of Russia’s claim over Crimea.

President Vladimir Putin drove across the bridge at its formal opening. Putin is also closely connected to construction tycoon Arkady Rotenberg, whose company got the $3.5 billion contract for the bridge.

CONSEQUENCES OF THE ATTACK

Rail traffic on the bridge reportedly was restored within a few hours Monday but it was unclear when full road service could be restored. Ferries were being organized to try to ease the burden, but it was not immediately clear whether the vessels could accommodate demand. Crimea’s beaches and mountains are popular with summer tourists.

Russian authorities advised people who wanted to leave Crimea quickly to go via Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine. That would add up to 600 kilometers (350 miles) to their journey and likely raise their anxiety about going through insecure areas.

Russian officials denounced Monday’s attack but did not immediately specify retaliatory measures, although Russia has responded with cruise missiles and drone barrages to other Ukrainian attacks.

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Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine


Drone boats give Ukraine a cheap, 'asymmetric' edge against Russia and may have just damaged a key bridge

Chris Panella
Updated Mon, July 17, 2023 

THEY LOOK LIKE DALEK DRONES FROM DR. WHO

It's been reported that naval drones were used to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge.
United 24/Ukrainian government

Waterborne drones are an inexpensive asset, giving Ukraine an "asymmetric" naval edge against Russia.


Russia blamed Ukraine for using the drones to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea on Monday.


The bridge is key for Russian economic, military, and cultural interests in occupied Crimea.


Ukraine has heavily relied on cheap-but-effective airborne drones for attacks on front-line Russian positions and on targets behind enemy lines. Waterborne drones are also inexpensive and devastating, and there are indications they were used to damage a key Russian bridge into Crimea.

On Monday, explosions rocked the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge, damaging the roadbed, halting traffic, and killing two adults. Russian authorities blamed Kyiv, vowing "targeted and quite inhumane" repercussions.

It's at least the second time the bridge has been damaged in less than year. Last October, a bomb-laden truck exploded, severely damaging the bridge and killing three people. It was closed to normal vehicle traffic until February 2023 and railway traffic until May 2023.

Russian state media attributed Monday's incident to Ukraine's unmanned drones, and Ukrainian state media outlet, Ukrinform, citing sources in the Security Service of Ukraine, said the SBU and Kyiv's naval forces carried out the nighttime attack and that unmanned surface vessels were involved.

An anonymous source from Ukraine's Security Service also confirmed to CNN that Ukraine's naval drones carried out the attack, as did a state official.

In general, unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) — commonly called drone boats — are remotely operated waterborne vessels. There's been a push to develop waterborne drones for both Ukraine and the US, the latter increasing production to counter China while the former looks for ways to counter Russia's formidable military.

Ukraine has been crowdfunding the development of a full-blown naval drone fleet, noting that the unmanned vessels first gave them an operational advantage to target Russian ships in October 2022. "The killers of Ukrainian civilians — warships armed with missiles — became targets themselves," a state-run fundraiser said.

They can pack a punch, and they're relatively cheap, too, especially compared to a traditional warship or the defenses required to defeat these unmanned surface vessels.

"The cost of manufacturing and fielding these vehicles is considerably less — many magnitudes less — than the cost of trying to defend against them and just basic resource allocation in trying to interdict and destroy these assets," said Samuel Bendett, a research analyst with the Center for Naval Analyses' Russia Studies Program.

"So again, the cost of defending against such vehicles falls on the defender — a single ship, a fleet, or an entire country — while the cost of manufacturing them is considerably smaller."

The result is an "asymmetric advantage" for Ukraine. They stress Russian defenses at a low cost to the Ukrainians and their available resources.


While Ukraine didn't take responsibility for the attack, Kyiv has repeatedly threatened to target the bridge.
Crimea24TV/AFP via Getty Images

The Kerch Bridge, which may have been the target of these assets, is a valuable access point for Moscow, connecting Russia to Crimea and allowing economic and cultural control over the illegally occupied territory.

It also served as an ideal transportation route for Russia's military equipment before its February 2022 invasion. Supply routes have mostly shifted to northern land bridges since October's attack, according to Bendett, but the repeated incidents raise a host of questions about how Russia is going to defend the Kerch Bridge.

"These USVs don't travel for thousands of kilometers, they have to operate in relative proximity to their operators or their launching point," Bendett said. "How do you defend a long bridge like that? Where do you place your defenses? Do you fly patrols around it? Do you install sensors on it all the time? Do you have maritime patrols all the time?"

In short: "It's difficult to properly and completely defend an asset as large as a bridge like that."

And although it's too early to tell how significant Monday's attack on the bridge is and what the impacts will be, especially since only part of the roadbed was damaged, Kyiv can, assuming its forces were the ones who executed the attack, can presumably count this as a win.

"Ukraine exploited its [the Kerch Strait Bridge] vulnerability by launching relatively cheap and inexpensive USVs in what turned out to be a successful attack," Bendett said.


Ukraine’s sea drone attack on Crimea bridge signals shift in strategy

Roland Oliphant
THE TELEGRAPH
Mon, July 17, 2023 

Ukraine’s security service told local media that it and the navy pulled off the attack using surface drones

Sunday’s sea and air drone attack on Sevastopol harbour and the Kerch road bridge highlight a shift in maritime warfare, the vulnerability of Crimea, and uncomfortable truths about high-stakes remote strikes.

Officially Ukraine is coy about attacks on Russian territory, public officials confining themselves to nudges and winks rather than explicit claims of responsibility.

But the SBU, Ukraine’s security service, has briefed local media that it and the Ukrainian navy pulled off the attack using surface drones.

There is clear footage of the attacks using the sea drones.

But images from previous Ukrainian maritime drone attacks give us a rough idea of what they look like - and how their designers have combined modern navigation tech with sea sports kit and old-fashioned bomb making.

The drones we have seen so far resemble sharp-prowed speed boats around 5.5 metres long.

Towards the bow, a rotatable camera stands on a small tower. Towards the stern, another tower contains what appears to be the communications array used for control - possibly a Starlink terminal.

Propulsion also seems to be from a non-military source: likely a petrol-driven water jet produced by Canadian firm Sea Doo, a maker of civilian jet skis.

The only discernible military grade, non-commercial kit are two pressure detonators taken from the Soviet-designed FAB-500 aerial bomb.

Unmanned bomb ships are nothing new. Sir Francis Drake sent fireships against the Spanish Armada in 1588.

Western navies - and the Royal and US navies in particular - have been thinking about fending off fast-moving small boats ever since an al-Qaeda suicide bomber on a speed boat attacked the USS Cole in 2000.

But modern drone technology has driven down costs and means navies do not need suicide helmsmen to get close to their targets.

When around half a dozen of the Ukrainian bomb-boats attacked the Black Sea Fleet at anchor in Sevastopol harbour, some naval experts hailed a turning point in naval warfare.

No Russian ships were sunk, but at least two were damaged, one apparently seriously, and by penetrating Sevastopol Bay’s heavily defended harbour mouth, the drones proved a new and serious threat had arrived on the Black Sea.

Monday morning’s attack shows that threat remains potent and continues to evolve. Other navies will be studying it carefully.

The Kerch bridge is one of Russia’s major vulnerabilities.


Completed in 2018, it was both a major engineering achievement and a symbol of Vladimr Putin’s conquest of Crimea four years earlier.

It also eased pressure on an overburdened ferry that was the only other direct route from the Russian mainland.

Now it is a critical bottleneck in the logistics network supplying Russia’s forces in southern Ukraine. And it is proving difficult to protect.

Ukrainians first attacked it in October last year, with a truck bomb that blew a hole in the road and set fire to a train on the neighbouring rail section. The bridge was out of action for weeks.

Monday’s attack shows despite Russia’s best efforts, a 12-mile bridge is difficult to secure.


The Kerch bridge is one of Russia’s major vulnerabilities and is proving difficult to protect - Reuters

The apparently undamaged railway section is more important from a military point of view than the damaged road section, but closing the bridge again will put inevitable pressure on the troops trying to hold back Ukraine’s counter-offensive.

Russian authorities have already re-routed tourist traffic via the “new territories” of occupied Ukraine, with obvious risks for both the civilians and military logistics. There were reports of heavy traffic jams on Monday afternoon.

Lastly, it highlights the uncomfortable moral compromises involved in prosecuting any war, but especially high-stakes operations behind enemy lines.

Russian authorities say the alleged drone strike killed a civilian couple and wounded their fourteen-year-old daughter as the family drove across the bridge.

October’s truck bomb attack, which killed five people including the driver of the lorry, raises trickier ethical questions. Was the driver a willing participant? If so, is suicide bombing ever admissible? If not, is there any excuse for duping a civilian into carrying a bomb?

The Kerch bridge is a legitimate military target. Some collateral damage is inevitable in a total war of national survival. And those deaths are nothing compared to the well documented and clearly deliberate atrocities committed by Russia during the war.

But war is always a murky, dirty business, no matter which side you are on. There is no point in pretending otherwise.



Drone Boats Used In Kerch Bridge Strike: Reports (Updated)

Howard Altman
Mon, July 17, 2023 

Kerch bridge USV attack

The Ukrainian federal security service, known by the acronym SBU, carried out Sunday's attack on the Kerch Bridge in cooperation with the country's navy using uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), according to state media and many other reports. The attack badly damaged the bridge linking Russia to the Crimean peninsula it has occupied since 2014.

We must highlight that these are initial reports and there is a massive information war also being fought by both sides. The War Zone could not independently verify these claims at this time, but they have been reconfirmed by various outlets. Still, Ukraine has a history of not giving information out on high-profile long-range attack. The possibility that this is a misdirect to obscure another form of attack is very real and must be kept in mind.

Close-up view of damaged Kerch Bridge span. 
(Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies.)

View of the damaged Kerch Bridge span. 
(Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies.)

Russian officials say it forced a halt to vehicle traffic and killed two motorists and injured their young daughter. Railroad traffic, across the bridge, however, continued, they say. You can read more about the strike and its potential impact in our initial coverage here.

This would mark the latest escalation in Ukraine's use of USVs, which you can read more about later in this story.

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1680888907959787520?s=12\u0026t=BQRSNakUKt7_8ssZiGBW-A https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1680822162414788610

“A nighttime attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was a special operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian Navy,” the official Ukrainian Ukrinform news agency reported Monday. “According to Ukrinform's sources in the SBU, the SBU and the Ukrainian Navy are behind a nighttime explosion at the bridge. Unmanned surface vessels were used to attack the bridge.”

"It was hard to get to the bridge, but this was eventually done," the SBU said, according to Ukrinform, adding that SBU Chief Vasyl Maliuk stated that the bridge is a legitimate target for Ukraine.

The bridge was attacked by Ukrainian sea drones, an anonymous Ukrainian official told The Washington Post Monday.

CNN had a similar report, saying "a source in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told CNN this attack was a joint operation of the SBU and Ukraine’s naval forces. The source spoke on condition of anonymity because they had not received authorization to speak on the record."

The SBU’s quick acknowledgment of its role in the attack is in stark contrast to how Ukraine reacted after the previous Kerch Bridge strike on October 8, 2022. Ukrainian officials like Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence Directorate, played coy about their role in that attack. It was only until recently, when, as we reported, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar listed that operation among Ukraine’s accomplishments during the 500 days of all-out war.

Of course, by Monday morning, Russian officials were blaming Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned what it called a “terrorist attack” on the bridge.

“A criminal case was opened after the terrorist attack, and the necessary investigative actions are being taken,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. “We are confident that those guilty will be found and will not escape justice. If the investigation finds that the surface drones that attacked the bridge are of Western origin, and that Western countries played a role in planning, sponsoring and conducting this operation, it will confirm their complicity in the Kyiv regime’s terrorist activity.”

The Foreign Ministry “strongly condemns the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, which is a purely civilian facility. We hope that the international community and relevant multilateral agencies will put their foot down and give a proper assessment of yet another crime committed by the Ukrainian authorities. The damage to the Crimean Bridge caused by the terrorist attack will be repaired shortly. All attempts to disrupt the transport link to the peninsula and tear Crimea from the rest of Russia are invariably futile.”

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1680951468067631105

“The Kyiv regime committed another barbaric crime,” Kherson Oblast occupation governor Volodymyr Saldo said Monday on his Telegram channel. “Damage to the structures of the Crimean Bridge is secondary. Primarily, Ukrainian propaganda mocks the death of civilians on the bridge. This shows the true face of those who are now sitting on Bankova Street in Kyiv or hiding somewhere in bunkers.”

USVs Weapon Of Choice


If the SBU claim is true this marks not just the second Ukrainian attack on the bridge, but a big increase in the capabilities of its USV fleet.

Starting last October, Ukraine began using USVs to attack Sevastopol in Crimea, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. You can read more about that attack in our story here.

There have been numerous Ukrainian USV attacks since then, both in Crimea and reportedly in the open waters of the Black Sea, according to Russia.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that it foiled yet another aerial drone and USV attack on Sevastopol on July 16.

https://twitter.com/gloooud/status/1680832616864399367

It is roughly 320 nautical miles (368 miles) from the closest Ukrainian-controlled shore to the Kerch Bridge, taking the most direct route around Crimea to the bridge. That is a very long-range strike that is unprecedented for Ukrainian USVs used against littoral targets. If the attacks on Russian vessels deep to the south in the Black Sea are indeed as Russia has purported them to be, such a long-range capability has been demonstrated. There is also the possibility that they were clandestinely launched much closer via a mothership vessel, but there is no evidence of that at this time.



Russia keeps a very close watch on the bridge and its approaches for just this kind of an attack. The span is heavily defended, but clearly not enough if indeed USVs got through and did this kind of damage. The low-slung area of the bridge that was hit would have maximized the impact from the blast from a explosive laden USV below.

Key Span

The Kerch Bridge is a key span for Russian logistics as it fights Ukraine's counteroffensive pushing slowly south toward Crimea. As we mentioned earlier this morning, vehicle traffic that normally would flow across the bridge is being rerouted via routes through territory in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts that Russia occupies.

Taking out the bridge makes for a much longer trip to southern Ukraine, though if the rail lines are still operating as Russian officials claim, that would certainly reduce the impact of this attack. But beyond the inconvenience factor, it also means that Russian resupply efforts by road have to travel far closer to the front lines and well within the operational distance of Ukraine's extended-range strike weapons. These weapons pose more of a threat to static vehicles and bridges (as we have seen targeted in the recent past) and key roadways areas though, not hitting moving vehicles.

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1680942863721406464 https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1680770032119283712

Saldo said that he and Sergie Askenov, the occupation governor of Crimea, have been working on plans to make those routes easier to travel with the increased traffic.

Those regions “will be fully involved in the organization of traffic for people to Crimea along the land route along the Azov coast, an alternative to the Crimean bridge,” said Saldo. “Kherson region is preparing to increase the transport and passenger flow. At the moment, most of the road from Melitopol to the Dzhankoy checkpoint within the region has been overhauled, the entrances to the checkpoint have been expanded. Measures will be taken to expedite the screening of people and vehicles.”

Specialists are working on the possibility of directing part of the tourist flow through the Armyansk checkpoint, he added.

“It could be used by tourists heading to the eastern coast of Crimea,”

Meanwhile, the ferry crossing from the Krasnodar Territory has resumed its work - the first batch of passengers from the port of Kavkaz has already arrived at the port of Kerch, the Russian Defense Ministry’s Zvezda News reported on its Telegram channel Monday. “However, for now, only passengers of regular buses can use the sea route.”

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1680959700135755778

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1680895219410116610

Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin said officials should know in a few hours the extent of the damage.

“I personally went downstairs and looked,” he told Zvezda News. “Now designers and builders are working out technological schemes for repairs, discussing whether it is possible to start the machines. A couple more hours - and there will be a decision. The divers are finishing their inspection of the supports.”

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1680868585290309632

"Previously, the railway bridge supports were not damaged, now they are studying automobile supports. In two hours there will be information, we will confer for now, outline a plan of action," the deputy prime minister told Zvezda.

While the ability of train traffic across the bridge will certainly help Russian logistics, it remains to be seen just how much and just how long it will take to repair the bridge after this attack.

In the wake of this attack, Russia announced it was canceling the Black Sea Grain Initiative, hammered out over the summer to allow grain and other food and fertilizer to be shipped out via Ukraine's Black Sea ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1680958032291692547

There is also the possibility that Russia will carry out retaliatory strikes across Ukraine.

We are certainly be watching for future developments and will update this story when there is more information to report.

Update 4:41 p.m. Eastern:


During a televised speech Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed a response to the attack.

"The terrorist act seriously damaged the road along several spans of the Crimean Bridge, and as a result auto and railway traffic was halted.”

However, railway traffic has already been restored, he said.

“Considering that this is the second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, I am waiting for specific proposals on how to improve the security of this strategically important transport facility. We discussed this in detail this morning.”

Putin added that the attack was “senseless” because the bridge hadn’t been used for military logistics for a while.

“Of course there will be a response from the Russian side,” he said. “The Defense Ministry is preparing adequate proposals.”

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1681029040528846853?s=20

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

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