Tuesday, August 15, 2023


Argentine peso plunges after rightist who admires Trump comes first in primary vote

DANIEL POLITI
Updated Mon, August 14, 2023 

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Javier Milei, presidential candidate of the Liberty Advances coalition, speaks at his campaign headquarters after polling stations closed during primary elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Sunday, Aug. 13, 2023. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — The Argentine peso plunged Monday after an anti-establishment candidate who admires former President Donald Trump came first in primary elections that will help determine the country's next president.

Javier Milei rocked Argentina’s political establishment by receiving the biggest share of primary votes for presidential candidates in the October general election to decide who leads a nation battered by economic woes.

Milei, 52, wants to replace the peso with the dollar, and says that Argentina’s Central Bank should be abolished. He has said that climate change is a lie and has characterized sex education as a ploy to destroy the family. He has also said that the sale of human organs should be legal.

Gun ownership is severely restricted in Argentina. Milei proposes the “deregulation of the legal market” for weapons and “the protection of its legitimate and responsible use by the citizens,” according to his party’s electoral platform.

Argentina’s government decided to devalue the local currency by 20% early Monday morning after the surprising Sunday showing. Two mainstream political coalitions have traded power for a decade in Argentina. The country is now the latest where voters have picked an outsider candidate to express anger against the status quo.

Operators were watching nervously Monday as the value of the peso also decreased in the parallel, or blue, market, dropping 12% by early afternoon.

The drop in the value of the peso means that already-high inflation will accelerate, making getting to the end of the month even harder for ordinary people.

“The more the dollar rises, the more expensive things become,” Marta Gisela Barrera, a 29-year-old urban recycler who has trouble buying enough food for her four children, said on Monday morning. “I don’t know what’s going to happen anymore.”

Argentina requires that citizens vote, with a symbolic financial penalty for not voting, and 69 percent of the country's 35 million voters went to the polls, each choosing candates for positions ranging from local councilman to president. It marked the lowest participation for presidential primaries since the current system was set up in 2009.

The major parties had contested races to be its presidential candidate. Milei was uncontested, and got a few points more than the candidates of parties that have dominated Argentine politics.

After doing much better than expected, the upstart candidate with long sideburns and shaggy hair who gained notoriety and a rockstar-like following by angrily ranting against the “political caste” is now a real contender for the presidency.

In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro was president from 2019 to 2022, and had a similar anti-left and anti-social justice orientation. Right-wing populists are also making inroads with a tough-on-crime message, most notably in El Salvador, where the popularity of President Nayib Bukele has soared amid a crackdown on gangs that has led to human-rights abuses.

With around 97% of polling locations reporting, Milei had around 30% of the total vote, according to official results. The candidates in the main opposition coalition, United for Change, were at 28% and the governing Union for the Homeland coalition had 27%.

In order to win the vote in two months, Milei would have to increase his share of the nation's votes by 15%, a high hurdle even in a nation where voters tend to favor candidates they see as winners.

If one candidate doesn't receive 45% of the vote, they would need 40% and a 10-point lead over the second-place candidate. Otherwise the race would go to a November runoff between the top two.

Celebrating in his election headquarters, Milei vowed to bring “an end to the parasitic, corrupt and useless political caste that exists in this country.”

“Today we took the first step toward the reconstruction of Argentina,” he said. “A different Argentina is impossible with the same people as always.”

In Buenos Aires on Monday, Milei's supporters seemed most excited about someone new coming into the scene.

“We always end up going back to the other party, then the other comes back, and it’s a cycle that keeps us in the same situation,” Clara Costa, a 54-year-old administrative assistant, said.

Milei has been a lawmaker in the lower house of Argentina’s Congress since 2021.

Argentina is struggling with annual inflation over 100%, rising poverty and a rapidly depreciating currency, and Milei first attracted wider support by calling for the country to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar.

Milei would need Congress to support that and that would be highly unlikely. As a result, he has said he would push for a referendum or a non-binding popular vote on the issue, although it’s also unclear if he would be able to push that through without the support of lawmakers.

Aked about the vote in Argentina, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador stated that inflation and economic crises “always benefit the right and conservatism, which is somewhat what’s happening in Argentina,” and he mentioned the case of Hitler. He immediately made clear he wasn't making a direct comparison between the two but said it was “important to remember” that “inflation actually helped” Hitler rise to power.

Bolsonaro’s lawmaker son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, celebrated the results, characterizing them on social media as “an excellent start to what could be the real change that Argentina needs.” Days before the primaries, former President Bolsonaro published a short video wishing Milei luck in the election.

The main opposition coalition, United for Change, moved more to the right as former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich, who made toughness on crime a centerpiece of her campaign, handily beat a more centrist contender.

In the currently governing coalition, Union for the Homeland, the more business friendly candidate — Economy Minister Sergio Massa — easily beat a leftist contender but still took an overall beating from voters frustrated over the poor state of the economy, finishing in third place for total votes.

At Milei’s electoral headquarters, party leaders were ecstatic while people celebrated outside, expressing optimism that their candidate’s support would only grow in the run-up to October.

“I like his ideas about freedom,” said Orlando Sánchez, 26, a retail worker. “If criminals walk around with guns on their belts, why can’t an ordinary citizen have one lawfully and with the proper documentation? People are clearly tired of politics, being constantly lied to.”

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Associated Press journalists Almudena Calatrava, Débora Rey, Natacha Pisarenko and Victor R. Caivano contributed to this report.

Hard-Right rock singer and ‘tantric sex instructor’ takes shock lead in Argentinian elections

James Crisp
Mon, August 14, 2023 


Javier Milei, presidential candidate of the Liberty Advances coalition, celebrates after dealing the incumbent Peronist party a historic defeat - NATACHA PISARENKO/AP


A hard-Right radical economist, former rock singer and self-described “tantric sex instructor” has taken a shock lead in Argentina’s presidential primary elections after dealing the incumbent Peronist party a historic defeat.

Javier Milei, a libertarian conservative known as “The Wig” for his eccentric hairstyle, and who embraces comparisons with Donald Trump, is now the frontrunner in October’s elections after his triumph in a primary vote on Sunday.

“We are the true opposition,” Mr Milei said as he took aim at the centre-Left Peronist party, which has held power for 16 of the last 20 years and is largely controlled by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the former president.

“We’re not only going to end Kirchnerism, but we’re also going to end the useless, parasitic, criminal political caste that is sinking this country,” said Mr Milei, who wants his country to gain a Hong Kong-style gradual transfer of sovereignty over the Falklands from Britain.

With some 90 per cent of ballots counted, Mr Milei had 30.5 per cent of the vote, far higher than predicted - ALEJANDRO PAGNI/AFP

The 52-year-old outsider who was endorsed by Jair Bolsonaro, the former hard-Right president of Brazil, plans to adopt the dollar as the national currency and abolish Argentina’s central bank in a country suffering 116 per cent inflation and a cost of living crisis leaving four in 10 people in poverty.

The “anarcho-capitalist”, who has built ties with Spain’s hard-Right Vox party, has pledged to cut taxes and spearhead an austerity programme to help pay off the country’s $44 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund.

“A different Argentina is impossible with the same old things that have always failed,” Mr Milei said, before thanking his five mastiff dogs, each of which is named after a conservative economist.

Voting in the primaries is obligatory for most adults and each person gets one vote, making it in effect a dress rehearsal for the general election and giving a clear indication of who is the favourite to win the presidency.

The vote is intended to select candidates for each political party. But when each party’s total votes are tallied, they give a strong indication of which is most popular.

With some 90 per cent of ballots counted, Mr Milei had 30.5 per cent of the vote as the only candidate for the Liberty Advances party, far higher than predicted. In total, the candidates for the main conservative opposition bloc received 28 per cent of the vote while those for the ruling Peronist coalition came in at third place with 27 per cent.

Polls had predicted he would take just short of one-fifth of the vote.
‘This speaks of people’s anger with politics’

“Milei’s growth is a surprise. This speaks of people’s anger with politics,” said former conservative president Mauricio Macri as he arrived for the count.

The former singer with the band Everest, known for its Rolling Stone covers, was seen as a protest candidate with a history of making outlandish claims on chat shows.

In one instance, the climate change sceptic said he was a tantric sex instructor who could go three months without ejaculating after claiming he had various threesomes, 90 per cent of which were with two women.

Despite such boasts over his sexual prowess, Mr Milei claims to be a staunch Catholic and wants to limit abortion rights in all cases, unless the mother’s life is at risk. He blames cultural Marxism for the LGBT movement.

Mr Milei and his running mate have defended Argentina’s military dictatorship and suggested they would loosen gun laws and legalise the sale of human organs, which the congressman said the government has no business restricting.

Javier Milei embraces fellow party member Ramiro Marra, left, and his running-mate Victoria Villarruel, right, after polling stations closed on Sunday - NATACHA PISARENKO/AP

His Trump-like rallies and strong social media presence are thought to have helped the outsider outperform expectations amid widespread disillusionment with establishment parties, especially among the young, because of the economic crisis.

“Inflation is killing us and job uncertainty doesn’t let you plan your life,” said Adriana Alonso, a 42-year-old housewife.

“The Argentine people have finally woken up,” Rebeca Di Iorio, 44, an administrative worker celebrating at Mr Milei’s election-night street party in Buenos Aires, told the New York Times.

“Argentina needs that. It needs a change.”

Sergio Massa, currently serving as the minister of economy, won the nomination for the ruling Peronist coalition as expected, and could perform more strongly in October if he can win over more moderate voters.

Turnout was under 70 per cent, the lowest for a primary election since they were first held in Argentina over a decade ago.

Whoever wins in October, or more likely in a November runoff, will have big decisions to make on rebuilding depleted foreign reserves, boosting grain exports, reining in inflation and on how to unwind a tangle of currency controls.


Argentine far-right outsider Javier Milei posts shock win in primary election










August 13, 2023 
By Nicolás Misculin, Eliana Raszewski and Candelaria Grimberg

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentine voters punished the country's two main political forces in a primary election on Sunday, pushing a rock-singing libertarian outsider candidate into first place in a huge shake-up in the race towards presidential elections in October.

With some 90% of ballots counted, far-right libertarian economist Javier Milei had 30.5% of the vote, far higher than predicted, with the main conservative opposition bloc behind on 28% and the ruling Peronist coalition in third place on 27%.

The result is a stinging rebuke to the center-left Peronist coalition and the main Together for Change conservative opposition bloc with inflation at 116% and a cost-of-living crisis leaving four in 10 people in poverty.

"We are the true opposition," Milei said in a bullish speech after the results. "A different Argentina is impossible with the same old things that have always failed."

Voting in the primaries is obligatory for most adults and each person gets one vote, making it in effect a dress rehearsal for the Oct. 22 general election and giving a clear indication of who is the favorite to win the presidency.

The October election will be key for policy affecting Argentina's huge farm sector, one of the world's top exporters of soy, corn and beef, the peso currency and bonds, and ongoing talks over a $44 billion debt deal with the International Monetary Fund.

The economic crisis has left many Argentines disillusioned with the main political parties and opened the door for Milei, who struck a chord especially with the young.

"Inflation is killing us and job uncertainty doesn't let you plan your life," said Adriana Alonso, a 42-year-old housewife.

As polls closed in the early evening after voting system glitches caused long lines in capital Buenos Aires, all the talk in campaign hubs was about Milei, a brash outsider who has pledged to shutter the central bank and dollarize the economy.

"Milei's growth is a surprise. This speaks of people's anger with politics," said former conservative President Mauricio Macri as he arrived at Together for Change's election bunker.

CONSERVATIVE BULLRICH BEATS MODERATE LARRETA

In the most important leadership race, within the Together for Change coalition, hard-line conservative Patricia Bullrich, a former security minister, beat out moderate Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Larreta, who pledged to get behind her campaign.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa won the nomination for the ruling Peronist coalition, as expected, and could perform more strongly in October if he can win over more moderate voters.

The unpredictable factor had been Milei, whose loud rock-style rallies are reminiscent of ex-U.S. President Donald Trump, but he far outperformed all forecasts. Most polls had given him just shy of one-fifth of the likely vote, though were also badly wrong four years ago in the 2019 primaries.

Turnout was under 70%, the lowest for a primary election since they started to be held in Argentina over a decade ago.

Whoever wins in October, or more likely in a November runoff, will have big decisions to make on rebuilding depleted foreign reserves, boosting grains exports, reining in inflation and on how to unwind a thicket of currency controls.

Jorge Boloco, 58, a merchant, said Argentina need a "course into the future," but no party offered a clear way forward.

Maria Fernanda Medina, a 47-year-old teacher, said she had also lost some optimism about politicians truly bringing change after many years of revolving economic crises.

"I don't have much hope because in every election I feel a little disappointed," she said as she cast her ballot in Tigre, on the outskirts of Buenos Aires. "But hey, we can't lose all hope, right?"

(Reporting by Nicolás Misculin, Candelaria Grimberg, Walter Bianchi, Lucila Sigal, Maximilian Heath and Jorge Otaola; Writing by Adam Jourdan; Editing by Chris Reese and Stephen Coates)

Analysis-Could Argentine radical libertarian Javier Milei win the presidency?


Argentines react to the results of Presidential Primary Elections


Mon, August 14, 2023 
By Adam Jourdan, Eliana Raszewski and Anna-Catherine Brigida

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentine far-right libertarian Javier Milei shocked the country on Sunday when he won the largest share of the vote in open primary elections. Now the big question is can he repeat the trick in October general elections when it matters?

The primary, which sees all candidates compete against one another, is a good gauge of how the general election will go. Milei won 30% of the vote, just ahead of the main conservative bloc on 28% and the center-left ruling Peronists on 27%.

The firebrand economist, whose boisterous campaign rallies draws comparisons to former U.S. leader Donald Trump, could turn the political status quo on its head in Argentina. He has pledged to shutter the central bank, dollarize the economy and sharply cut state spending.

Milei, however, faces a bigger challenge to win the Oct. 22 general election, or likely a run-off in November, with some voters casting protest votes on Sunday and record low turnout, which dented the more traditional parties.

Those trends could shift in the next two months.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa, the candidate for the governing Peronist coalition, said that the primary vote was just the "first half" of the election competition, using a soccer analogy in the country of greats Lionel Messi and Diego Maradona.

"We have the second half, extra time and then penalties. And we will be fighting until the last minute," he said after the vote, which saw his coalition, the country's top political force for decades, post its worst primary election result.

Analysts said that more people could come out to vote in October after 69.5% turnout in the primary. There is on average a 4 percentage point bump in voter numbers between the primaries and the general election, J.P. Morgan said in a note.

This suggests "higher upside for traditional parties in the general elections as compared to Milei, which we see closer to its ceiling in terms of vote intention".

'MILEI PRESIDENT!'

That potential challenge has done little to dampen spirits in Milei's camp, delighted at far exceeding pollster estimates of around one-fifth of the vote in the primary.

"We can feel it! Milei president!", his fans chanted as the elections results were announced.

The Together for Change conservative coalition pledged to unite behind its elected candidate Patricia Bullrich, a hard-line former security minister, though she said the vote had revealed that people wanted something new.

"This is a society that's demands deep change, down to the roots," she said, promising security, reasonable taxes and ending years of uncertainty and government red tape.

Julio Cobos, a lawmaker with Together for Change, agreed voters had expressed themselves in the polls and were demanding profound change, but the race was still very much open.

"The challenge is the final election which is October," he said, adding the coalition had plenty of room to boost its performance if it stuck together.

"We hope to grow and win in the next elections. It is important that the leaders show up together, unify proposals, speeches, and present as a good team," he said.

Beyond doubt is the fact that the race, previously seen as between the two main parties with Milei a dark horse likely grabbing an notable third place, is now a true three-way fight. Each of the top candidates could make the run-off.

"The election race is now divided in three, which it wasn't before," said Alejandro Corbacho, director of the political science program at Argentine university UCEMA.

"It is clear that there is a lot of anger. People are very angry with the political classes."

Jared Lou, a portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management, said that Milei had made himself the "front-runner" but there was lots of uncertainty.

"One factor that may help Milei in the presidential elections is that he's an outsider and voters are frustrated," he said. Lou added his views on promoting gun ownership, anti- abortion policies and dollarizing the economy - something most Argentines oppose - could ultimately put off some voters.

A dollar-peso peg introduced in the 1990s brought short-term benefits but ended in an ugly devaluation.

"Many of the policies he has campaigned on are viewed as fairly radical by the electorate."

(Reporting by Adam Jourdan, Anna-Catherine Brigida, Eliana Raszewski, Jorgelina do Rosario and Lucila Sigal; Editing by Aurora Ellis)

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