Hurricane Hilary weakening, Southwest still bracing for heavy flooding
UPI Staff
Sat, August 19, 2023
Hurricane Hilary is expected to weaken in strength but parts of the west coast and U.S. Southwest are still bracing for heavy flooding brought on by the now Category 3. Image courtesy NOAA
(UPI) -- Forecasters said Saturday they expect Hurricane Hilary to weaken but parts of the West Coast and Southwest continued to brace for heavy flooding triggered by the Category 3 storm.
Hilary is currently located more than 200 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas in Mexico's Baja California peninsula and is moving at approximately 16 mph, according to the forecast issued by the National Weather Service at 2 p.m. EDT.
The storm's maximum sustained wind speeds are topping out at 115 mph.
Flood watches are in effect from southern California through Arizona, extending north to Oregon and Idaho.
Forecasters now expect Hilary to weaken to a tropical storm before arriving in U.S. coastal waters sometime late Sunday. Southern California and parts of Arizona are expected to be the hardest hit areas.
Clouds hover over a beach in the resort of Acapulco, Mexico, on Wednesday as forecasters predicted Hurricane Hilary would bring up to 10 inches of rain in some parts of Baja California. Photo by David Guzman/EPA-EFE
The storm was downgraded from a Category 4 to a Category 3 Hurricane Friday.
The National Weather Service is forecasting severe thunderstorms in southwest Arizona, which will bring intense rainfall and could lead to flash flooding and tornadoes.
The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department is advising people to leave Catalina Island in Los Angeles ahead of the storm.
The U.S. Navy on Saturday started moving some of its ships out to sea to avoid being damaged in port at Naval Base San Diego. The nuclear-powered USS Nimitz aircraft carrier was the first to leave Saturday morning.
National Hurricane Center forecasters late Friday continued to warn of life-threatening and "potentially catastrophic" flooding possible in the U.S. Southwest early next week.
On Friday, the Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management posted on X the area is facing a tropical storm watch and residents should "prepare now for high winds, excessive rainfall, high surf, flash floods" and the possibility of power outages.
NHC officials noted in an earlier advisory that the government of Mexico has upgraded the hurricane watch to a hurricane warning on the west coast of Baja California northward to Cabo San Quintin. It also has upgraded the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning north of Loreto on the east coast of Baja California and north of Guaymas in mainland Mexico.
And a tropical storm watch has been extended westward from the Orange/Los Angeles County Line to Point Mugu, forecasters said.
Forecasters say Hilary will drop up to 10 inches of rain in some areas as the storm approaches the Baja California peninsula over the weekend with tropical-storm-force winds.
Hilary was expected to produce 3-6 inches of rain throughout portions of the Baja California peninsula through Sunday night, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches and locally significant flash flooding possible.
Heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches is also expected to impact the southwestern United States from Friday through early next week. In isolated cases, it could be in excess of 8 inches across southern California and southern Nevada.
Large wave swells generated by Hilary are expected off the southwestern Mexican coast and Baja California over the next few days.
In May, the NHC said it expected a "near-normal" hurricane season," and in June, the Climate Prediction Center said an El Nino weather phenomenon had developed.
Brian Lada
Thu, August 17, 2023
The formerly dry Panimint Dry Lake, located at the base of the snow-capped Panamint Mountan Range, is viewed on March 3, 2023, near Panimint Springs, California. Death Valley National Park, the largest park in the contiguous United States, straddling the border of California and Nevada, is also the hottest, driest and lowest park, dropping to 282 feet below sea level. (Photo by George Rose/Getty Images)
Death Valley is known for its intense heat and bone-dry landscape, but it could be transformed into a desert oasis due to Hurricane Hilary.
The national park sits below sea level in California, southeast of the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range. Being in the rain shadow of the towering mountains, it rarely rains in the park, especially in the summer when the temperature frequently reaches 120 degrees Fahrenheit.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said Death Valley National Park could receive 2-4 inches of rain from Hilary. Typically, the park receives just 0.94 of an inch of rain in an entire year, according to the historical average.
The tropical deluge from Saturday through Monday could overwhelm the landscape and cause the sizzling-hot valley to transform into a massive lake.
Heavy rain has filled Death Valley with water in the recent past.
In March of 2019, springtime rain flooded the park to create a lake stretching nearly 10 miles.
Similarly, 1.3 inches of rain that fell in Death Valley in October of 2015 created a temporary lake that was deep enough for kayakers to paddle around the park.
However, the forecast of a lake-forming deluge is not a guarantee.
Douty warned that a small change in Hilary's track could have big implications in Death Valley.
"The trick here will be that the heaviest rain could fall across a narrow north-south oriented zone," Douty explained. "A small shift in the storm track could easily shift the corridor of heavy rain."
Still, any rain could be an issue for people in the arid park.
Even if the heaviest rain avoids the park but drenches nearby areas, water runoff could still funnel water into Death Valley. The runoff could potentially washout roads and damage infrastructure in the remote park.
Last August, a heavy downpour flooded roads, buried vehicles in debris and stranded 1,000 visitors.
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