China watching closely as US, Japan, South Korea aim for 'de facto Asian NATO'
South China Morning Post
Tue, August 15, 2023
China is said to be on "high alert" as US President Joe Biden hosts the leaders of Japan and South Korea at Camp David this week to deepen technological and defence ties - building what some observers have called a "de facto Asian Nato" on China's doorstep.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will be joining Biden on Friday at the US presidential retreat in rural Maryland for the first three-way summit of its kind.
They are expected to announce plans for expanded cooperation on ballistic missile defence systems and technology development, senior US officials told Reuters.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
They are likely to also agree to set up a new three-way crisis hotline and gather annually in the future, Reuters quoted the officials as saying.
In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China was opposed to "the cobbling together of various small circles by the countries concerned".
"[China] also opposes practices that exacerbate confrontation and jeopardise the strategic security of other countries," Wang said.
"The countries concerned should follow the trend of the times and do more that is conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity."
Lu Chao, dean of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University in northeastern China, said Friday's meeting could lead to a trilateral military alliance that would hit a nerve in Beijing.
"The [likely] mechanism of regular meetings among heads of state and the fixed mechanism of cooperation in the military aspect amount to the de facto formation of a three-way military alliance," Lu said.
While North Korea is expected to top the agenda, Beijing will be watching for specific references to Taiwan in the joint statement expected to be issued at the end of the summit, observers in mainland China said.
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province to be eventually reunited, by force if needs be. While most countries, including the US, Japan and South Korea, do not recognise self-ruled Taiwan as an independent state, but oppose any attempt to take the island by force.
"China is on high alert for the summit, especially if the Taiwan issue is to be mentioned," Lu said.
"If they raise the Taiwan issue publicly at the summit, it would be seen as a strong provocation to China and will be a dangerous move for stability in the Asia-Pacific."
Taiwan's Vice President William Lai (centre left) chats with Ingrid D. Larson (right) managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan/Washington Office, upon arrival in New York on Sunday. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP alt=Taiwan's Vice President William Lai (centre left) chats with Ingrid D. Larson (right) managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan/Washington Office, upon arrival in New York on Sunday. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP>
The statement would also contain general observations on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, though the exact wording was expected to be negotiated up until the last minute, an anonymous US official told Reuters.
Friday's summit comes after months of diplomacy by the Biden administration, which has tried to bring together Washington's treaty allies Japan and South Korea as part of a campaign to strengthen Asian military alliances to counter China.
The US signed the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan in 1951. In 1953, following the Korean war armistice, it signed a Mutual Defence Treaty with South Korea.
Tokyo and Seoul have a troubled history, especially over Japan's wartime excesses as well as territorial issues, but a rising China, Russia's militarism and a nuclear-armed North Korea are factors bringing the two neighbours closer to each other and the US.
Tensions had peaked from time to time, until a major thaw in recent months as Yoon, who took office in May last year, has sought to repair ties with Japan and launched a strategic pivot to the US, to tackle growing military challenges from North Korea and souring ties with China and Russia.
North Korea test-fired around 90 missiles last year, nearly four times its peak of 25 in 2017. Last month, it tested its latest Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, saying it was a warning to the US and other adversaries.
During an inspection tour of a military factory last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for an increase in missile production to help secure "overwhelming military power" and be ready for war, state news agency KCNA reported.
This came days before annual joint US-South Korean military exercises due to begin on Monday.
Under the principle of collective defence in Article 5 of the Nato treaty, an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all Nato members.
But Liu Jiangyong, an expert on regional affairs at Beijing's Tsinghua University, voiced scepticism about a trilateral alliance comparable to Nato.
"The three countries do not have the security commitments that Nato countries have with each other, and Japan and South Korea are security partners, not allies," Liu said.
The strategic goals of the three countries were also different, he said.
"The US may consider [its goals] from a global perspective, while Japan is largely targeting China ... South Korea, meanwhile, is trying to strengthen security cooperation with the US and Japan to build a greater military deterrent against North Korea."
However, he expected "joint military exercises and trilateral consultations against China" to continue.
In a speech on Tuesday marking the 78th anniversary of South Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule, Yoon said his country would step up security cooperation with the US and Japan in addressing the nuclear threat from North Korea.
Kim Jae-chun, an international relations professor at Sogang University in Seoul, also said any trilateral military technology cooperation would largely focus on North Korea.
"While previously the discussion remained on sharing the alert on North Korean missiles, now it will focus on the drills to intercept North Korean ballistic missiles using their radar and missile weapons systems," Kim said.
"I think it has a great meaning in deterring North Korean nuclear development. However, China will criticise South Korea's incorporation into the US missile defence system."
Kim said while the joint statement after the trilateral summit was not likely to point at China as a threat, the US-China rivalry had already turned into a strategic competition, regardless of the aims of the trilateral summit.
"The current trend shows that China-Russia-North Korea cooperation is strengthening in northeast Asia and US-South Korea-Japan ties are also increasing in response ... it appears that the two sides are containing each other."
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
South China Morning Post
Tue, August 15, 2023
China is said to be on "high alert" as US President Joe Biden hosts the leaders of Japan and South Korea at Camp David this week to deepen technological and defence ties - building what some observers have called a "de facto Asian Nato" on China's doorstep.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will be joining Biden on Friday at the US presidential retreat in rural Maryland for the first three-way summit of its kind.
They are expected to announce plans for expanded cooperation on ballistic missile defence systems and technology development, senior US officials told Reuters.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
They are likely to also agree to set up a new three-way crisis hotline and gather annually in the future, Reuters quoted the officials as saying.
In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China was opposed to "the cobbling together of various small circles by the countries concerned".
"[China] also opposes practices that exacerbate confrontation and jeopardise the strategic security of other countries," Wang said.
"The countries concerned should follow the trend of the times and do more that is conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity."
Lu Chao, dean of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University in northeastern China, said Friday's meeting could lead to a trilateral military alliance that would hit a nerve in Beijing.
"The [likely] mechanism of regular meetings among heads of state and the fixed mechanism of cooperation in the military aspect amount to the de facto formation of a three-way military alliance," Lu said.
While North Korea is expected to top the agenda, Beijing will be watching for specific references to Taiwan in the joint statement expected to be issued at the end of the summit, observers in mainland China said.
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province to be eventually reunited, by force if needs be. While most countries, including the US, Japan and South Korea, do not recognise self-ruled Taiwan as an independent state, but oppose any attempt to take the island by force.
"China is on high alert for the summit, especially if the Taiwan issue is to be mentioned," Lu said.
"If they raise the Taiwan issue publicly at the summit, it would be seen as a strong provocation to China and will be a dangerous move for stability in the Asia-Pacific."
Taiwan's Vice President William Lai (centre left) chats with Ingrid D. Larson (right) managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan/Washington Office, upon arrival in New York on Sunday. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP alt=Taiwan's Vice President William Lai (centre left) chats with Ingrid D. Larson (right) managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan/Washington Office, upon arrival in New York on Sunday. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP>
The statement would also contain general observations on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, though the exact wording was expected to be negotiated up until the last minute, an anonymous US official told Reuters.
Friday's summit comes after months of diplomacy by the Biden administration, which has tried to bring together Washington's treaty allies Japan and South Korea as part of a campaign to strengthen Asian military alliances to counter China.
The US signed the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan in 1951. In 1953, following the Korean war armistice, it signed a Mutual Defence Treaty with South Korea.
Tokyo and Seoul have a troubled history, especially over Japan's wartime excesses as well as territorial issues, but a rising China, Russia's militarism and a nuclear-armed North Korea are factors bringing the two neighbours closer to each other and the US.
Tensions had peaked from time to time, until a major thaw in recent months as Yoon, who took office in May last year, has sought to repair ties with Japan and launched a strategic pivot to the US, to tackle growing military challenges from North Korea and souring ties with China and Russia.
North Korea test-fired around 90 missiles last year, nearly four times its peak of 25 in 2017. Last month, it tested its latest Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, saying it was a warning to the US and other adversaries.
During an inspection tour of a military factory last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for an increase in missile production to help secure "overwhelming military power" and be ready for war, state news agency KCNA reported.
This came days before annual joint US-South Korean military exercises due to begin on Monday.
Under the principle of collective defence in Article 5 of the Nato treaty, an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all Nato members.
But Liu Jiangyong, an expert on regional affairs at Beijing's Tsinghua University, voiced scepticism about a trilateral alliance comparable to Nato.
"The three countries do not have the security commitments that Nato countries have with each other, and Japan and South Korea are security partners, not allies," Liu said.
The strategic goals of the three countries were also different, he said.
"The US may consider [its goals] from a global perspective, while Japan is largely targeting China ... South Korea, meanwhile, is trying to strengthen security cooperation with the US and Japan to build a greater military deterrent against North Korea."
However, he expected "joint military exercises and trilateral consultations against China" to continue.
In a speech on Tuesday marking the 78th anniversary of South Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule, Yoon said his country would step up security cooperation with the US and Japan in addressing the nuclear threat from North Korea.
Kim Jae-chun, an international relations professor at Sogang University in Seoul, also said any trilateral military technology cooperation would largely focus on North Korea.
"While previously the discussion remained on sharing the alert on North Korean missiles, now it will focus on the drills to intercept North Korean ballistic missiles using their radar and missile weapons systems," Kim said.
"I think it has a great meaning in deterring North Korean nuclear development. However, China will criticise South Korea's incorporation into the US missile defence system."
Kim said while the joint statement after the trilateral summit was not likely to point at China as a threat, the US-China rivalry had already turned into a strategic competition, regardless of the aims of the trilateral summit.
"The current trend shows that China-Russia-North Korea cooperation is strengthening in northeast Asia and US-South Korea-Japan ties are also increasing in response ... it appears that the two sides are containing each other."
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
No comments:
Post a Comment