Abay Yimere,
Thu, September 21, 2023
THE CONVERSATION
About 70% of people in Addis Ababa live in informal settlements that are vulnerable to climate change. Amanuel Sileshi/AFP/ Getty Images
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital city, will likely face increased heatwaves, droughts and severe flooding over the next 67 years. These changes will pose risks to public health and infrastructure. They’ll also be felt most acutely by the city’s most vulnerable residents: those living in informal settlements.
Addis Ababa is one of the fastest-growing cities in Africa, and its current metropolitan population of about 5.4 million is projected to reach close to 9 million by 2035.
This increase in the city’s population will be absorbed by informal settlements, the prime destination for most migrants. And informal settlements are characterised by poor or non-existent infrastructure, and face the twin challenges of worsening climate change and poor urban environmental policy.
To investigate the city’s vulnerability to climate change, researchers at Tufts University and the Woodwell Climate Research Center analysed flood risk and temperature data for different time periods, projecting from the past to the future.
We predicted that the city’s extreme daily maximum temperatures would increase by about 1.7°C over the period 2040-2060, compared with 2000–2020. An increase of 1.7°C would result in a rise in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves. In addition, higher temperatures contribute to increased water vapour and transpiration. This will threaten health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods, and food supplies.
Certain southern neighbourhoods, such as Akaki-Kaliti, Bole and Nifas Silk-Lafto, have experienced notably higher temperatures, especially during the warm season from March to May. And, looking to the future, temperature projections for Nifas Silk-Lafto suggest an average temperature increase to 26.21°C between 2040 and 2060, and further increase to 27.78°C from 2070 to 2090 and 27.78°C from 2070 to 2090.
For the warm-season months of March, April, and May, a temperature increase of 1.8°C is projected. This suggests that the peak temperature for the hottest day of the year will rise by an average of 1.8°C compared to recent data. From 2000 to 2020 the average temperature in the Nifas Silk-Lafto sub-city was 24.70°C.
Increases in temperatures of this magnitude will lead to public health challenges such as increased malaria risks, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups like the elderly, children, and women.
More droughts
Over the past two decades, Addis Ababa has endured an average of three months of extreme drought yearly. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index to assess temperature and precipitation data in a geographical area, our analysis suggests that extreme drought events will become more frequent between 2040 and 2060. The city is expected to experience an additional 1.6 months of extreme drought annually, a 53% increase compared with 2000-2020.
This rising frequency of droughts, along with the city’s growing population, is intensifying water insecurity. Groundwater reserves for drought emergencies are already being depleted.
These droughts will affect health, hydroelectric energy production and urban agriculture.
Flooding
Too much rainfall, particularly if it occurs within a short period of time in an urban area, leads to flooding. Flooding poses a significant environmental risk to Addis Ababa, especially because the city has developed around three primary rivers.
Climate change will increase water-related challenges by affecting the flow of rivers and the replenishment of groundwater.
Currently, 67% of the population in Addis lives in flood prone areas. The parts of the city that are most at risk include central Addis, which has the greatest density of impervious surfaces like tarmac and concrete. These contribute to flood risk because water can’t seep into the ground.
Other parts of the city that are at risk include the southern half – where the slope is relatively flatter, so water doesn’t flow away – and the Nifas Silk-Lafto region, where considerable development has taken place in the floodplain.
Several factors will add to the flooding challenge. The city has inadequate sewerage infrastructure and weak drainage systems which are often obstructed by solid waste.
The impact
The effects on the city’s residents will be substantial.
Health is just one example.
Our data show that average temperatures in the city will make year-round malaria transmission a risk. There will have to be sustained policy measures to deal with the risk.
Older adults and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. The elderly are more sensitive to heat and pollution due to existing health conditions, limited mobility, and compromised immune systems. Pregnant women face risks from thermal variations and mosquito-borne illnesses like malaria and Zika.
Read more: Climate change will cause more African children to die from hot weather
Many urban residents will be prone to increasing floods. Already 10% of the city’s newly developed areas are within a 100-year floodplain, threatening lives and infrastructures.
People living in informal settlements are particularly at risk – that’s about 70% of Addis Ababa’s residents. These settlements crop up in limited and unused spaces, such as riverbanks. They are at a higher risk of flood impact, and the risk is growing.
Our data shows that currently the percentage difference in vulnerability between formal and informal settlements is 0.6%. The figure illustrates the extent to which buildings within formal and informal settlements would be affected by flooding events. It is expected to rise to 1.3% by 2050 and 1.6% by 2080.
Policy recommendations
There’s an urgent need for policies that can rise to these challenges. We suggest:
the government should establish a climate adaptation and resilience office, to integrate climate resilience into urban planning
an independent body should then assess policies in practice
a water management strategy to ensure equitable access and sustainable use of water
the city should invest in green infrastructure
Read more: Global climate finance leaves out cities: fixing it is critical to battling climate change
upgrading infrastructure and improving waste management
public awareness campaigns and school education on climate change impacts
developing mechanisms for effective collaboration among government departments, non-governmental organisations and international agencies.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts.
It was written by: Abay Yimere, Tufts University.
Read more:
New tools to map flood risk will help bring disaster planning up to date
Landlocked Ethiopia wants better sea access: a port deal with neighbours could benefit the region
Is eastern Africa’s drought the worst in recent history? And are worse yet to come?
Thu, September 21, 2023
FILE PHOTO: A general view shows motorists and a biker near the Tigray Martyrs monument in Mekele
By Emma Farge
GENEVA (Reuters) - U.N.-appointed investigators warned on Thursday that more atrocities were likely in Ethiopia and called for continued scrutiny of Addis Ababa's human rights record as their work faces termination amid strong African-led opposition.
Thousands died in a two-year conflict between the government and regional forces from Tigray, which formally came to an end in November last year. Both sides accused each other of atrocities, including massacres, rape and arbitrary detentions, but each denied responsibility for systemic abuses.
The International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia, composed of three independent experts, said earlier this week in a report that war crimes and crimes against humanity were still being committed in Ethiopia.
Its two-year mandate is up for renewal in the ongoing Human Rights Council session in Geneva although so far no request has been submitted amid what diplomats describe as strong opposition, mostly from African states.
Ethiopia, which denies committing widespread abuses, has strongly opposed the probe and tried to cut its work short.
Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the Commission, told the 47-member council it would be "premature" to end its work and urged it to renew, referring to ongoing violations in the region of Amhara.
"Failure to do so would not only be an abdication of the Council's responsibility, it would send a devastating message to the victims and survivors of this conflict," he said.
He told the Council that "...the situation in Ethiopia exhibits most of the indicators for future atrocities..." and accused Ethiopia of conducting "a deliberate effort to evade regional and international scrutiny".
And he criticised Ethiopia's approach to justice as "deeply flawed", saying there had been no credible evidence of legitimate investigations or trials of its soldiers which it accuses of attacking civilians.
Ethiopia's government and its armed forces have repeatedly denied that their soldiers committed widespread crimes and have promised to investigate complaints of individual abuses.
Ethiopia's ambassador Tsegab Kebebew said the Commission had "grossly mischaracterised the positive and widely acclaimed political developments in Ethiopia". He did not directly address the other criticisms. A spokesperson for Ethiopia's government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Ivory Coast envoy Konan François Kouame said that it considered the work of the U.N. Commission as now being terminated and urged the council to instead support Ethiopian-led measures.
(Reporting by Emma Farge; Editing by Alex Richardson)
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