Monday, September 25, 2023

WOMEN, LIFE, FREEDOM
How Mahsa Amini's death permanently changed Iran

Analysis: Mass protests last year changed Iran in significant ways. One year on, the Islamic Republic still faces a legitimacy crisis, as a cultural revolution continues to challenge the balance of power between state and society.


Analysis
Giorgio Cafiero
19 September, 2023

The 16th of September marked one year since the death in police custody of Mahsa Jina Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman from Saqqez.

When Amini was in Tehran just over a year ago, the Iranian “morality police” arrested her for allegedly not properly wearing the hijab in compliance with the laws of the Islamic Republic.

Although Iranian officials claim that she died from a heart attack unrelated to her situation in the “re-education” centre, Amini’s parents and Iranian protesters have rejected this official line, maintaining that she died from blows to her body while in custody.

What immediately followed Amini’s death in custody was a wave of protests that erupted all over Iran. In contrast to previous protests, the ones triggered by this young woman’s death took place in all provinces. Iranians came out in large urban areas, as well as in more rural and conservative parts of the country.

Although over time the protests lost steam, which was largely due to the government’s heavy-handed crackdown, the grievances that drove so many Iranians to the street remain unaddressed.

"The protests marked an inflection point, where the majority of the Iranian people gave up trying to find a modus vivendi with a regime that only cares about its own narrow core constituents"

A cultural revolution

The protests that broke out in September 2022 changed Iran in significant ways. Although the Islamic Republic has remained in power, which means that there was no successful political revolution, Iran has been, and still is, undergoing a cultural revolution.

“Today, the Iranian society, especially women, are moving the boundaries of [civil] disobedience and I believe that the balance of power between state and society will change, when more and more segments of society engage in [civil] disobedience, and that is when significant changes in governance structures will emerge in Iran,” said Dr Bijan Khajehpour, the managing partner at Vienna-based Eurasian Nexus, in an interview with The New Arab.

“How Iran changed since the death of Mahsa Amini is that Iranian women and girls essentially came to the street to fight mandatory hijab and said, ‘Enough is enough…You can’t kill a woman or girl because of how she’s dressed,’” Negar Mortazavi, a Washington-based Iranian journalist, host of The Iran Podcast, and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told TNA.

In-depth  Sophia Akram

“The protests marked an inflection point, where the majority of the Iranian people gave up trying to find a modus vivendi with a regime that only cares about its own narrow core constituents,” explained Dr Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project, in a TNA interview.

“It was significant that women across the country showed up for [Amini]…it was also significant because this is a continuation of the daily fight of women that has been going on for four decades,” said Mortazavi.

“Since the beginning of the Islamic Republic, a specific group of women first protested the law of the mandatory hijab. Then it kept growing and growing with new generations joining. My own mother and aunt, then my own generation, and now the newer, younger generation [has] essentially [been] saying, ‘We want our bodily autonomy, we want to be able to dress how we want, and you can’t base it on one reading of the religion.’”


Women protest over the death of 22-year-old Iranian Mahsa Jina Amini in front of the Iranian Consulate on 26 September 2022 in Istanbul, Turkey. 

Challenges to the Islamic Republic's legitimacy

One year after Amini’s death in custody, Iran’s government is still facing its most serious legitimacy crisis since 1979. Segments of the country are fed up with the Islamic Republic’s economic, political, and social policies at a time when Iran’s middle class continues shrinking with more citizens living in poverty.

Of course, this is not entirely the fault of Iran’s government. The US is not an innocent or blameless actor. At least according to the architects of US sanctions on Iran, such policies have been designed to worsen these economic conditions in Iran, which exacerbate the regime’s legitimacy crisis. Regardless of Western motivations, the sanctions appear to have their desired effects when it comes to fuelling more opposition to the Islamic Republic on the part of wider segments of Iran’s population, particularly the youth.

A question worth asking is, could Iran’s worsening legitimacy crisis lead to the Islamic Republic facing an existential crisis? Considering the state’s monopoly on arms, power, and violence plus the fact that the protest movement lacks any leader, some experts are doubtful.

"It's not a matter of whether the system will be faced with another uprising, it's a matter of when, what sparks it, and whether the regime has anything to offer in response beyond internet blackouts, batons, and bullets"

“We don’t see the ingredients for an actual full-on revolution. Yes, it’s mass dissent, mass protests, but it’s also leaderless,” commented Mortazavi. “There are no serious political parties behind the street protests. It’s just very hard to imagine, at this stage, that the legitimacy crisis will translate into an immediate existential crisis, meaning that the state or regime is about to fall.”

Yet, the Iranian journalist explained that “if these cries for change, transformation, or revolution as the society wants are not heard by the state, and if policies stay rigid…I think the legitimacy crisis will just grow, run deeper, and get worse.”

Analysis  Stasa Salacanin

Oppression, not reforms, is Iran's expected short-term future


Although Iran joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, receiving an invitation to enter BRICS, and renormalising relations with Saudi Arabia in a Chinese-brokered diplomatic deal underscore how Iran is less isolated on the international stage compared to one year ago, it is unlikely that these developments in Tehran’s foreign policy will help the Islamic Republic overcome this legitimacy crisis at home.

Authorities in Tehran understand the magnitude of this crisis, and this is why the government has been relentless in terms of repressing dissent.

“There is grievance upon grievance that has been piling on and not addressed by the state. This poses a serious legitimacy crisis. The state understands that’s why they have to mobilise security forces to crackdown…on such protests and essentially react with such violence and brutality. Around 500 protests were killed, thousands were arrested, and a few were executed,” Mortazavi told TNA.

“The protests and government reaction have confirmed that the Iranian government has no intention of building back legitimacy or accommodating popular grievances,” Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, said in a TNA interview.


One year after Amini's death in custody, Iran's government is still facing a serious legitimacy crisis. 

“What is popular legitimacy worth to the powers that be and how much of it do they actually possess? Not much,” said Dr Rouzbeh Parsi, the head of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs' Middle East and North Africa programme, told TNA.

“Effectively, meaningful reform from within is not on the horizon,” explained Dr Vakil. “To manage internal dissent, economic challenges, massive climate change pressure, and future Supreme Leader succession, Iran will be governed by a narrow exclusive group of loyalists and believers.”

During and after the Amini protests there were some voices optimistic enough to believe that the government in Tehran would agree to certain concessions along with specific political and social reforms in order to regain some lost legitimacy with reformist figures, such as former president Mohammad Khatami and former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi.

"[The Islamic Republic] lost the battle of ideas because it's stopped offering any. It's all but given up on the battle for popular legitimacy"

“Instead, the government is doubling down on reinforcing veiling and social repression,” observed Dr Vakil. “Despite the hope that next year’s parliamentary elections would be more inclusive, the bureaucracy and academia are both being purged,” she added.

The Iranian government’s ability to weather the mass protest movement that began a year ago is merely “a pyrrhic victory in a much bigger contest that began before September last year, continues today, and will continue in the future,” Dr Vaez told TNA.

“[The Islamic Republic] lost the battle of ideas because it’s stopped offering any. It’s all but given up on the battle for popular legitimacy, which was already the case over the past few parliamentary and presidential elections.”

In-depth Alessandra Bajec

More sparks

Within this context of Iran’s authorities oppressing and cracking down on activists, lawyers, artists, journalists, academics, and entrepreneurs whom they see as contributing to the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy crisis, there is every reason to expect more uprisings to erupt in the future.

“It’s not a matter of whether the system will be faced with another uprising, it’s a matter of when, what sparks it, and whether the regime has anything to offer in response beyond internet blackouts, batons, and bullets,” according to Dr Vaez.

Mortazavi concurs. She believes that more mass protests will break out in Iran, “probably in shorter intervals, in shorter periods in between as the state continues to ignore the grievances and provide these sparks for the population.” Past sparks have included the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ shooting down of the Ukrainian passenger plane with 176 civilians on board in January 2020, soon after the 50 percent petrol price increase which triggered protests in response to the overnight hike of gas prices.

“This time [the spark] was the death in custody of a young woman for how she was dressed…This woman wasn’t a criminal. She wasn’t in a jail. She was just picked up on the street because of her attire. The state has essentially created these sparks. We’ve seen the society light up and now we’re seeing it light up in shorter intervals because of the situation with the economy and the social and political grievances that haven’t been addressed,” said Mortazavi.

With no signs of serious reforms being around the corner, Iran’s government will probably continue dealing with its legitimacy crisis through authoritarian methods. “The Islamic Republic is now a securitised Islamic state: the institution of elections and the system's republican institutions have become empty shells, and the men with guns have infiltrated all institutions of power,” Dr Vaez told TNA. “A minority rule regime can survive with brute force for a long time, but not forever.”

Dr Parsi believes that in the long run the Iranian system has to change. What remains to be seen is the tempo and scope of such change, how it is managed, and how orderly the change will be. “The more unwilling [Iran’s government] changes, the higher the cost for everyone,” he warned.

“There are of course those within the nezam (system) who believe themselves to be sufficiently impervious to societal pressure that they can continue without much change. There is a generational aspect here in that both the population and those who man the state apparatus will no longer belong to the founding generation nor the one who experienced the war with Iraq,” added Dr Parsi.

Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics.
Follow him on Twitter: @GiorgioCafiero




Grief to action: The Woman Life Freedom movement one year on

Yousra Samir Imran
16 September, 2023

It's been a year since Iranian authorities oversaw the brutal murder of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. Her death and others like her have spawned the Woman Life Freedom movement that demands systemic change in Iran. One year on, how has the movement fared?


When 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian Jina “Mahsa” Amini died a year ago while under custody after having been arrested by Iran’s Guidance Patrol for “improper hijab” it was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Against the background of totalitarian rule with stringent laws that forced all women to wear the hijab, along with a collapsing economy and a government failing to tackle climate change and mismanaging natural resources, the Iranian people rose up in protests that spread across 21 provinces.

The initial protest began in Amini’s home province of Saqqez. Women attending her funeral removed their headscarves in protest and chanted “Jin Jîyan Azadî” meaning “Woman, Life, Freedom.”

These three words had long been part of Kurdish-Iranian history as part of the feminist women’s resistance movement in the Kurdish Workers’ Party (KPK), inspired by the words of imprisoned PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan who said a country could not be free unless all women were free. These three words spread like quickfire and were chanted by women and men alike across Iran, becoming the slogan of a female-led mass movement.

"Over 20,000 people have been arrested since the protests began in September 2022, over 500 have been killed by the IRGC and scores executed to “make an example” of them"

The past year’s major act of defiance has been the public removal of hijab by girls and women as young as twelve years old. Schoolgirls waving their hijabs in the air, writing “death to the dictator” on classroom blackboards and stamping on pictures of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei.

One cannot ignore the symbolism: girls and women of all ages taking back their agency, refusing to have their bodies policed and removing a garment that in many ways is an emblem of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The response from the Islamic Republic of Iran, primarily through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was expected. Just like other authoritarian regimes in the SWANA region such as Egypt, mass protests were responded to with military violence, the use of live ammunition, arbitrary arrests, forced disappearances, trials in kangaroo courts and executions.

Over 20,000 people have been arrested since the protests began in September 2022, over 500 have been killed by the IRGC and scores executed to “make an example” of them. They were charged with working for foreign bodies against Iran or for “enmity against God” (moharebeh). Even the schoolgirls were not safe. Female students from 91 schools across Iran suffered from poisoning which the United Nations described in March 2023 as targeted chemical attacks.



A year ago, The New Arab spoke to Iranian activist Elnaz Sarbar. Despite the violent crackdown by the Iranian state, she says that poll figures prove that opposition against the Islamic Republic is increasing.

“In January 2023, there was a poll that was done [by the Netherlands-based Gamaan Institute] that was over 200,000 people; 150 thousand were inside Iran. The poll asked how many people support the Islamic Republic. The results were that 15% of people support it and 81% oppose it. I think what the Mahsa or Jina Revolution did for the Iranian people was bring this opposition to the forefront of the society. You know, hearing people chant “Bring down the dictator,” now it's a chant that is heard across the country. It was a chant that people even months later still repeat. People go to their rooftops at night when you can't see anybody and they shout ‘Bring down the dictator.’”

One of the effects of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement has been the reawakening, mobilisation and activism of Iranians in the diaspora. This month London-based publishers Saqi release Woman, Life, Freedom: Voices and Art from the Women’s Protests in Iran, edited by Malu Halasa. The anthology captures first-hand accounts and artwork by Iranian and Kurdish-Iranian women and the LGBTQ+ community who were part of the movement, and it exhibits different forms of creative resistance.

UK-based sound artist Fari Bradley is one of the contributors to the anthology. She is at the forefront of protests in London, supporting major actions such as a now-renowned performance on International Women’s Day in March 2023.

British-Iranian women marched silently across London dressed in the red cloaks and white bonnets of The Handmaid’s Tale, holding posters of female protestors' faces who were killed by the IRGC since the movement began. It was a powerful form of protest that made the news internationally. What it symbolised was that while The Handmaid’s Tale is fiction for most, it is a lived reality for women in Iran.

Women's freedom is a key theme of Margaret Attwood's bestseller "The Handmaiden's Tale"

“So, it was young people, mostly on social media, just crying out for support and for people to notice, because even though injustice has always been happening in Iran, they've never said anything like that before. They've never asked us specifically to get political. We'd never seen the stories covered with such tenacity, and you know, you'd hear one bad story and then it would sort of die down because this now has become a wave of continual attacks from the regime, and then resistance against the regime. It was as if a veil was lifted from our eyes as if we had been just toeing the line for injustice for so long and trying not to rock the boat, and suddenly everyone was like ‘rock the boat!’” Bradley tells The New Arab.

In the past year, one of the things many people across the world have failed to recognise is the Kurdish heart of this movement. It was the death of a Kurdish-Iranian woman that sparked it and the protests began in a Kurdish province.

Many believe that the IRGC crackdown was harder in Kurdish-Iranian provinces. Award-winning Kurdish-Iranian journalist and author of The Cypress Tree, Kamin Mohammadi, wrote an essay included in Saqi’s Woman, Life, Freedom anthology that was nominated for two journalism awards.

In it, she delves into the Kurdish origins of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement and the disproportionate use of violence used on Kurdish-Iranians and other ethnic minorities over the past year.

Voices  Kourosh Ziabari

“I think there's something to be said as to why the regime responds like that,” says Mohammadi. “The vast number of people who've been taken and imprisoned are Kurdish, not just Kurdish, but also Baluchi. So, these are ethnic minorities. They’re also not Shia Muslims, they are Sunni. And I think a lot of the discrimination from this regime comes from that. More than their actual ethnicity. Sadly, I'm looking right now and rounding up the amount of people who've been imprisoned, killed, and sentenced to death. They've executed I think five people to do with the protest. But they've executed many more people who've been in prison from before the protest and they are vast majority Kurdish and Baluchi minorities. There's a real socioeconomic class issue here as well, because, you know, these are not the upper or middle wealthier classes that are on the streets, right?”

"There is serious talk of the regime installing AI surveillance systems to catch women in public who aren’t wearing a hijab... Many activists are saying this is a form of gender apartheid"

Over the past twelve months, people of all genders and ages in Iran have risked their lives in protest against the mandatory hijab. A year on, there seems no end in sight for the Islamic Republic’s compulsory hijab rules, in fact, things are about to become harder.

In July the BBC reported the reinstatement of Iran’s morality police’s hijab patrols. In the past, Article 638 of Iran’s Penal Code criminalised those who violate any religious taboo in public, without explicit mention of the word “hijab.”

The new Hijab and Chastity Bill is very explicit, criminalising the wearing of no hijab or improper hijab; the punishments are larger fines of up to 360 million Iranian rials (over 8 thousand dollars) and prison sentences between five and ten years. The government is trying to pass this bill through the use of Article 85 of the Iranian constitution, which allows them to pass laws without public debate.

There is serious talk of the regime installing AI surveillance systems to catch women in public who aren’t wearing a hijab or a hijab according to their guidelines. Many activists are saying this is a form of gender apartheid.

The Woman Life Freedom movement demands freedom for Iran, regime change, and justice for Mahsa Amini and other Iranians killed for not wearing the hijab 

“They have introduced a new legislation with 70 items to push back against hijab and it includes punishing businesses who provide services to women without a headscarf, including taxis and coffee shops and shops, so they are not going after only women but also business owners,” says Elnaz Sarbar.

Things may have not changed legislatively – in fact, they may have gotten worse. Yet, if there is one positive change that has come about over the past year as a result of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, it has been a societal shift.

Fari Bradley and other Iranian women noticed that the uprisings in Iran had brought men out, marching shoulder to shoulder with women, a growing allyship that was being outwardly exhibited. Men and women, boys and girls were marching for the same thing – liberty from authoritarian rule, an end to regime violence and better economic conditions, particularly for workers.

“We're receiving videos of men, of elderly strangers, supporting them against the Revolutionary Guard, who are also sometimes women as well, you know, they go around and harass people and oppress people. They try to film them and you can just see everybody retaliating and saying, no, leave these people alone,” explains Bradley.

“Sometimes it's a tacit support, but the main thing is just men not blocking women. You know, this is a country where women can't travel without permission, so, it's been amazing. Older generations might not be coming out as much as the youth, but they are the ones who taught their kids to be curious and to think freely, they are supporting those who go out, with their hearts in their mouths, waiting for their loved ones protesting to come home safely. A lot of the workers have been amazing, striking and organising.”

“The biggest thing I heard from friends in Iran was that it used to be quite common for women to be cat-called in the streets. But that’s almost completely gone. Respect for women has increased and people talk about respect more. Another thing that's happened is many mental health charities have popped up which support people online and, you know, mental health was stigmatised and you can see society has changed in that regard. And that's really positive. It's a feminist revolution, but men of all ages are feminists too now.”

Perspectives  Katy Shahandeh

Kamin Mohammadi believes that another thing to come out of the movement has been the erosion of ethnic, social and class divides and greater unity.

“For ordinary women in Iran, particularly Kurdish women, I don't think that this has moved the dial. It's definitely not made them any safer. So probably for everyone, it's kind of made things worse.

In terms of the bravery of the people of Iran, particularly the Kurdish people, what we saw during these protests that hastened me, and I hope they go on, was that they kept chanting at the heart ‘unity.’ And it was about unity. It was about the Kurds, the Baluchis, the Aphasias, the Persians, the men, the women, and the LGBTQ community. Everyone together united and that has been one of the more beautiful things that we've seen emerge from this.”

The Islamic Republic has tried its best to quash the movement, end the protests and make examples of people, but what it has failed to do is quash the fearless and resilient spirit of its women, who continue to carry out acts of defiance, and who are still hopeful that one-day things will change.

“There's something one of my friends told me when all this started and I wrote it down,” says Elnaz. “She told me ‘I see confidence in women and I think this is confidence you can't take back’. We did it, we came to the streets with the dress we wanted to wear and so we're going to keep doing this - especially the younger generation, they're like, ‘we don't care about the price.’ There was a political activist, who was sentenced to four years in prison. She came out on her first day out of prison, took her headscarf off and chanted in front of the prison. She was arrested again and sentenced to another two years. The women really are fearless.”

Woman, Life, Freedom: Voices and Art from the Women’s Protests in Iran, edited by Malu Halasa, is published by Saqi and is out now

Yousra Samir Imran is a British Egyptian writer and author who is based in Yorkshire. She is the author of Hijab and Red Lipstick, being published by Hashtag Press in the UK in October 2020

Follow her on Twitter: @UNDERYOURABAYA

No comments:

Post a Comment