Fri, September 15, 2023
South Korea is ramping up arms exports while traditional behemoths struggle with production shortages (Jung Yeon-je)
At a sprawling South Korean arms factory, a high-tech production line of robots and super-skilled workers were rapidly churning out weapons Friday that could, eventually, play a role in Ukraine.
Since the Russian invasion last year, the Hanwha Aerospace factory in the southern city of Changwon has expanded production capacity three times, workers told AFP, as South Korea ramps up arms exports while traditional behemoths like the United States struggle with production shortages.
Longstanding domestic policy bars Seoul from selling weapons into active conflicts, but even so it signed deals worth $17.3 billion last year, including a $12.7 billion agreement with NATO member and key Kyiv ally Poland, for K9 Howitzers, K2 tanks, and more.
And with North Korea's Kim Jong Un in Russia touring space centres and weapons factories, experts say the South may be forced to review its careful balancing act on the Ukraine war -- which Seoul has condemned, even as it resists calls to supply weapons directly to Kyiv.
On the assembly line Friday were rows of Warsaw-bound Howitzers, an artillery weapon a bit like a super-mobile cannon.
Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea's largest defence contractor, is racing to meet delivery targets for the 14-wheeled, 47-tonne K9 Howitzers, which have a firing a range of 40 kilometres (25 miles) -- much longer than a tank, although the K9 needs to be stationary to shoot.
Poland ordered 212 K9s last year and Seoul has already delivered 48 of them -- a pace "no one else can achieve," Lee Kyoung-hun, Hanwha's production leader told AFP.
"We are capable of delivering products in the shortest time frame possible," said Lee, adding that it took between three and four months to build one Howitzer from scratch.
- 'Ready for war' -
Seoul has long harboured ambitions to join the ranks of the world's top arms exporters -- aiming to be the fourth largest, behind the US, Russia and France -- something that is now possible, industry research indicates.
It has already sold artillery shells to Washington -- but with a "final user" agreement in place meaning the United States would be the military that uses the munitions.
Experts have said this allows the United States to then provide their own shells to Kyiv.
South Korea's arms industry has one key advantage over others globally: it's always been "ready for war," said Choi Dong-bin, Hanwha Aerospace's senior vice president.
Hostilities in the 1950 to 1953 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, and Seoul remains technically at war with nuclear-armed Pyongyang.
This gives the country an advantage globally in weapons production, Choi said, as Seoul has the capacity to mass-produce quickly and easily whenever it gets an order.
"The fact that we're maintaining production line is another boon. At this moment we're receiving many orders from overseas and we are able to respond quickly to their demands and deliver products in a short period of time," he said.
Seoul's weapons are also well-tested: "These are deployed on the ground," on one of the world's most heavily fortified borders, Choi said.
"Because they are deployed (in South Korea), it has the capacity to perform in any part of the world," he added.
Heavily-sanctioned North Korea lacks Seoul's high-tech weaponry -- but it does have stockpiles of outdated Soviet-era munitions.
Kim met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, and experts have warned the internationally-isolated pair might have agreed a deal involving Pyongyang supplying artillery shells and anti-tank missiles in exchange for satellite technology from Moscow.
- Change the game -
Any such deal could change Seoul's calculations, experts say, as although South Korea has condemned Russia's invasions of Ukraine, it has resisted calls to step up support to Kyiv, in part as it has long called on Moscow to help manage Kim Jong Un.
But if Moscow starts buying weapons from Pyongyang -- something that would violate rafts of UN sanctions -- it could both change the course of the Ukraine war and force Seoul's hand, said Choi Gi-il, professor of military studies at Sangji University.
"If that were to happen, I think it will be more than 50-50 probability that South Korea-manufactured weapons exported to Poland would be deployed to help Ukraine fend off the Russians," he said.
The export of South Korean weaponry, especially the K9 howitzers, would be "of great value to Kyiv," he said.
"It's always better to have more howitzers in war and both Russia and Ukraine don't have enough of them," he said, adding that Ukraine was mostly using Soviet-era outdated weapons.
"But K9s stand out as among the most recent, overwhelming conventional weapons. It will mean so much for Kiev to have them on the frontlines."
kjk/ceb/dhw
Kim Jong Un-Putin talks: What do the optics tell us?
Frances Mao - BBC News
Fri, September 15, 2023
President Putin (left) and Kim Jong Un met on Wednesday in their first face-to-face in four years
They strolled side by side through the gleaming space centre - stopping to peer into the pit from where rockets blast into space.
At their lavish banquet, they drank Russian wines and toasted the embrace of their two pariah states.
And before leaving, they swapped guns as gifts - model rifles from each others' munitions lines.
The optics of Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin's date in eastern Russia clearly underscore a relationship that is being strengthened in wartime.
It isn't over yet, with the North Korean leader spending several days touring shipyards, aircraft factories and other military sites before he returns home.
There had been great anticipation in the lead-up - with global media rapt as Kim trundled for hours in his armoured train over the border.
He kept the West guessing for nearly 40 hours before reaching the Vostochny Cosmodrome - a space base in a far-flung eastern corner of Russia. Even then, it was unclear what exactly the pair would be meeting to talk about - with White House warnings last week that the North could sell arms to Russia sparking alarm.
Putin had sent ahead a welcome party to greet Kim as his train rolled onto the space base's tracks. A red-carpeted, balustrade staircase was also erected mid-air, waiting for the train to pull in and for the North Korean leader to step out.
Kim - who rarely flies because of security concerns - travelled nearly 40 hours on his luxury train
Putin was waiting in front of the centre when Kim drew up in his limousine. There, before flashing cameras, the two leaders shook hands - the pictures beamed out immediately by state media.
Both leaders know the power of showmanship, but the Supreme Leader of North Korea, as Kim is known, is particularly a fan of ceremony. He is third in a dynasty of supreme leaders "who have generations of mythology constructed around them", says Sarah Son, a North Korea expert at the University of Sheffield.
"It wouldn't do to be seen as a run-of-the-mill, limited term state leader by domestic audiences, who will be seeing this journey and parts of the meetings on television and in the newspaper.
"It's very important for Kim to have one-to-one meetings with leaders of other countries so that all eyes are on him, making North Korea appear as a more significant global player than it actually is.
"Sanctions of course remain extremely tight and Russia's need for arms presents an opportunity to achieve two complementary aims: income for the North Korean state and evidence that Kim is worthy of the attention of the leader of a major global power."
About an hour before the two leaders met, Pyongyang had also fired off two ballistic missiles - the first launched without the leader at home.
"The summit defiantly linked pariah state behaviour in Europe and Asia," says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Putin waiting for Kim outside the space centre - one of his projects before the war
But beyond the spectacle and bombast, observers question whether the meeting achieved any concrete deals. Little was revealed publicly.
"As of now, it appears that there have been no substantial developments in the public domain," says Fyodor Tertitskiy, a North Korean military researcher at Kookmin University in Seoul.
"We observed a two-fold event - a grand spectacle primarily designed for foreign audiences and undisclosed agreements behind closed doors, the significance of which remains uncertain."
Putin and Kim: Friends in need (of ammunition)
The US wants to talk to North Korea but doesn't know how
Inside Kim Jong Un's luxury bulletproof train
No detail was revealed of the feared arms deal the West is concerned could boost Russia's fight in Ukraine.
And no word was mentioned either of certain gains for North Korea - of food aid, economic help or military and technology sharing, the things that Kim would have wanted say analysts.
Instead the only known advance appears to be Putin hinting he could potentially help with Kim's space and satellite goals.
That's where the choice of venue was noticeable analysts say. Both leaders travelled long distances to get to the space port on the other side of the country from Moscow.
The leaders toured the space facility before sitting down for talks
Examining a rocket launchpad
But meeting at the site provided significant optics for Putin, analysts say.
First, his offer of space assistance could be argued as being within the acceptable limits of what Russia can give North Korea.
Pyongyang has failed twice this year to get a spy satellite into space - their technology is still decades behind Russia's.
And for Moscow, helping put a satellite in space so the North can watch its enemies is vastly different to the Kremlin aiding a nuclear and missiles programme banned by the UN Security Council.
But the problem remains that we don't know what was actually promised to the North.
Pyongyang has nuclear warhead-topped intercontinental ballistic missiles which in theory could reach the US. They currently don't- because the North in part hasn't worked out how to keep them from frying as they fly through space.
Russia and the US however know how to protect their missiles- from the same technology they use to protect their satellites. If Moscow has shared this technology with Pyongyang, the US could potentially be in striking distance.
As such, the meeting this week at the spaceport is "equivalent to Putin thumbing his nose at UN Security Council Resolutions", says Prof Easley.
"This should be a wake-up call to all other UN member states about the need to redouble efforts at enforcing sanctions on Pyongyang," he said.
People at a train station in South Korea watch a news report of the meeting
But there remains significant doubt over whether Russia would share any of its space jewels, or even sees the North's arms as anything more than a back-up supply.
"Even with regards to the satellite technology, Putin's statements were cautious, not an explicit commitment to provide assistance but rather a strong implication that it may be considered," says Mr Tertitskiy.
He also points out the near non-existent money flows between the two - despite the rhetoric surrounding weapons, trade remains near zero according to South Korean estimates. North Korea remains reliant on China for over 95% of its trade income.
"This leaves us uncertain whether this summit will yield any more concrete results than the fruitless 2019 meeting did," he says, referring to the last time the two leaders met.
The sumptuous dinner where Kim delivered a toast hailing Russia's 'sacred fight' against the West
It has been four years since that huddle, and for Kim this rare trip shouldn't be underplayed, analysts say. This was his first foray abroad in four years, as his reclusive state also begins to re-open to the world post pandemic.
Putin made sure that he would be treated handsomely, observers say.
The meeting could have just been held in Vladivostok, on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, Putin's signature Asia-facing platform which has previously been attended by Chinese and South Korean leaders.
Instead, he chose to give Kim centre stage, at a different venue altogether - bringing out the red carpet, the banquet, the brass marching band - and then also making the trip to meet him there.
"It is a sign of respect for Kim. This could be seen as a gesture to ensure Kim feels valued," says Mr Tertitskiy.
But equally, he says, it's also about the message being sent to the West - elevating the perception of their relationship even when the details are scant.
But in this relationship, it's crucial to focus on what the two sides actually do, he says.
"Both Kim and Putin are adept at employing deception. Once again, it's imperative to scrutinise their concrete actions rather than their words."
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