SCOTLAND
Starmer’s hopes of becoming PM boosted after winning key by-election


Kate Devlin and Adam Forrest
Fri, 6 October 2023 



Keir Starmer’s hopes of winning the keys to No 10 at next year’s general election have been boosted after winning a “seismic” victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.

Polling guru Prof John Curtice said the 20 per cent swing from SNP to Labour was a “remarkably good result” that put Sir Keir’s party on course to be the “dominant” force in Scotland again and win a majority in the Commons.

Labour has been confident it would take the Scottish seat from the SNP after the disgraced former MP for the area Margaret Ferrier broke lockdown laws to travel from London to Glasgow with Covid.

Bur victory was seen as a crucial step prove the party was on course for victory next year, and avoid tough questions at its party conference which opens this weekend in Liverpool.

In the end, the party’s candidate Michael Shanks won over 17,000 votes, out of a total of 30,000 cast – a remarkable 58 per cent of votes cast. The result marks a 20.4 per cent swing to Labour from the SNP.

Sir Keir hailed the victory as a “seismic” result, which he said sent a “clear message” that it was “time for change” across the country.

“I have always said that winning back the trust of people in Scotland is essential,” said the Labour leader. “Tonight’s victory is the culmination of three and a half years of hard work and humility on that journey.

Sir Keir added: “Voters across Scotland and across Britain want a government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.”

Prof Curtice told BBC Scotland News said the “remarkably good result” was “well above the kinds of swings we’ve seen in the opinion polls in Scotland”.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) with winner Michael Shanks (PA)

The elections expert said: “That means the Labour vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was in 2010 before the tsunami that swept the Labour party from virtually every constituency in Scotland.”

Prof Curtice added: “If this kind of swing were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole you’d be talking about the Labour Party quite clearly being the dominant party north of the border.”

The election expert also told BBC’s Good Morning Scotland that wins on that scale historically “on course for victory in a general election” he said – adding that you “cannot ignore the direction of travel”.

Labour hopes to win around 15 to 20 seats in Scotland at the next election, up from their current haul of just one. They had held the seat in 2010, but it flipped to the SNP in 2015 on a wave of support for the party in the wake of the independence referendum.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar added that the “seismic” result had sent a very clear message – that people are “sick of two tired, failing, incompetent governments”.

He added: “They’re desperate for a fresh start, they’re desperate for a change. Scotland will lead the way in delivering a UK-wide Labour government”.

The new MP for the area, Mr Shanks, said: “People need change from governments that have too often been distracted... People are once again listening to the Scottish Labour Party,” he said, adding: “Change is possible.”

Embarrassingly for the Scottish Conservatives, candidate Thomas Kerr lost his deposit – winning just 1,192 votes. He said tactical voting “squeezed” Conservative votes since the party’s base wanted to “send a message” to the SNP.

SNP leader Humza Yousaf said the “collapse in the Tory vote, which went straight to Labour” was a significant factor, adding: “We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back.”

The SNP’s deputy leader Keith Brown also said: “It’s Sir Keir Starmer’s pro-Brexit Labour party that benefitted from support from Tory voters.”

Moment Labour's Michael Shanks wins the Rutherglen by-election (PA)

Mr Yousaf has failed to connect with voters in the way ex-leader Nicola Sturgeon once did. Labour’s hopes were boosted when Ms Sturgeon was arrested and questioned as part of a police investigation into her party’s finances.

There was widespread outrage when Margaret Ferrier breached strict Covid regulations by travelling from Westminster to Scotland after she tested positive for the virus.

She was kicked out of the SNP, who called for her to resign her seat. Ms Ferrier resisted but was eventually ousted when a so-called “recall” petition was supported by her constituents.

Prof Curtice has said Labour would achieve “job done” if it turned a 10-point SNP lead in 2019 into a 10-point Labour lead.

“If it were to be much more than that, then this really would be potentially quite a spectacular result, and we’d be asking ourselves whether the Labour Party really could compete with the SNP to become the largest party in Scotland,” he added.

The Scottish Conservatives came in third place, polling ahead of Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate Gloria Adebo and Scottish Green Party candidate Cameron Eadie who secured 895 and 601 votes respectively.

Out of an electorate of 82,104, some 37.19 per cent turned out to cast a vote in the by-election, despite earlier fears that issues with voter ID and poor weather conditions impacted turnout.