Cognitive ability mattered in the UK’s vote for Brexit, University of Bath research shows
Susceptibility to misinformation and disinformation likely to have played part in Leave vote
New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.
Lead author Dr Chris Dawson, from the University of Bath’s School of Management, said: “This study adds to existing academic evidence showing that low cognitive ability makes people more susceptible to misinformation and disinformation. People with lower cognitive ability and analytical thinking skills find it harder to detect and discount this type of information.
“We know that evidence has been put forward that information provided to the public in the months leading up to the referendum was contradictory, false and often fraudulent, especially regarding the pro-Leave campaign, and that this information proliferated on social media platforms.”
The research, published in PLOS ONE, used a nationally representative sample of 6,366 individuals from 3,183 heterosexual couples collected as part of a large survey called Understanding Society. They found that, of the people with the lowest cognitive ability, only 40% voted Remain, whereas 73% of those with the highest cognitive ability voted Remain.
The researchers emphasise that it is important to understand that findings are based on average differences between large groups of voters.
“Depending on which side of the debate you fall, reading this may fill you with anger or joy. However, both these emotions are an error of judgement,” said Dr Dawson.
“It is important to understand that our findings are based on average differences: there exists a huge amount of overlap between the distributions of Remain and Leave cognitive abilities. Indeed, we calculated that approximately 36% of Leave voters had higher cognitive ability than the average (mean) Remain voter,” he said.
Importantly, the study looked at couples living in the same household to equalise people’s experiences, as well as controlling for demographic information such as political beliefs, education level, income and newspaper readership.
The research found that having a high cognitive ability partner and the highest cognitive ability in the couple both increased the likelihood of voting Remain.
“Low cognitive ability can lead to decision errors and many Leave voters are now saying they regret their choice. The study highlights how the rise in misinformation and disinformation, and people’s inability to counter this information, is undermining the democratic process and can be used to influence democratic outcomes,” said Dr Paul Baker from the University of Bath School of Management, co-author of the study.
Cognitive ability and voting behaviour in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership is published in PLOS ONE by Dr Chris Dawson and Dr Paul Baker.
JOURNAL
PLoS ONE
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Data/statistical analysis
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
People
ARTICLE TITLE
Cognitive ability and voting behaviour in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
22-Nov-2023
Higher cognitive ability linked to higher chance of having voted against Brexit
Research also finds strong links between a person’s “Leave” or “Remain” vote and their spouse’s cognitive skills
IMAGE:
THE ANALYSIS REVEALED A STRONG STATISTICAL LINK BETWEEN HIGHER COGNITIVE ABILITY AND HAVING VOTED “REMAIN”.
view moreCREDIT: THEDIGITALARTIST, PIXABAY, CC0 (HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/PUBLICDOMAIN/ZERO/1.0/)
A new analysis suggests that a person with higher cognitive ability may have been more likely to vote “Remain” in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and that a spouse’s cognitive skills may also be linked to Brexit voting decisions. Chris Dawson and Paul Baker of the University of Bath, UK, present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on November 22, 2023.
Having higher cognitive ability has previously been associated with a greater tendency to recognize and resist misinformation. Studies have also shown that the UK public received a large volume of misinformation about the referendum prior to voting for the UK to withdraw from the EU (“Brexit”). However, while a growing body of research has investigated potential links between people’s Brexit votes and socioeconomic, sociodemographic, and psychological factors, less research has addressed the potential role of cognitive ability in their decisions.
Dawson and Baker analyzed data on 3,183 heterosexual UK couples collected as part of a large survey study called Understanding Society. They examined whether there were any links between participants’ reporting that they had voted “Leave” or “Remain” and their cognitive ability—as measured by their performance on a variety of tasks. The researchers statistically accounted for other factors that could also be linked to voting decisions, such as socioeconomic and sociodemographic traits, political preferences, and a widely studied set of personality traits known as the Big Five.
The analysis revealed a strong statistical link between higher cognitive ability and having voted “Remain”. In addition, people whose spouse had higher cognitive ability were significantly more likely to vote “Remain”. In cases where one spouse voted “Remain” and the other “Leave”, having significantly higher cognitive ability than one’s spouse was associated with an even higher chance of voting to Remain.
The researchers note possible underlying explanations for their findings. For instance, misinformation about the referendum could have complicated decision making for people with low cognitive ability. They also suggest the need for ways to avoid such complications in the face of increasing amounts of misinformation.
The authors add: “This study adds to existing academic evidence showing that low cognitive ability makes people more susceptible to misinformation and disinformation. People with lower cognitive ability and analytical thinking skills find it harder to detect and discount this type of information.”
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Author interview: https://plos.io/46tNWwp
In your coverage please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS ONE: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0289312
Citation: Dawson C, Baker PL (2023) Cognitive ability and voting behaviour in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0289312. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289312
Author Countries: UK
Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.
JOURNAL
PLoS ONE
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Observational study
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
People
ARTICLE TITLE
Cognitive ability and voting behaviour in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
22-Nov-2023
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