A reaction to the Dutch elections
NETHERLANDS / EPC FLASH ANALYSIS
Elizabeth Kuiper
Date: 24/11/2023
If the far-right party that won the Dutch elections on Thursday has its way, the possibility of a Nexit is no longer merely hypothetical. The EU should now get ready for more political unrest in 2024 and beyond if the elections in the Netherlands are any indication of what will happen in other member states. With populists in power in Hungary, Slovakia and Italy and support for these parties surging in Germany and France, the Netherlands is the latest country where yesterday’s elections saw an increase in support for the Dutch anti-immigration populists.
Immigration has been a big issue in the election campaign, especially since Rutte’s government fell over a bill to reduce asylum seekers. The Dutch liberal party (VVD) seems to have underestimated the fact that after 13 years of VVD Prime Minister Rutte, right-leaning voters were not looking for a party that would compromise with other mainstream parties on issues like migration and the green agenda, as they did in previous coalitions. Even though Wilders’s tone has been described as ‘milder’ his rhetoric and priorities on migration and leaving the EU remain unchanged.
Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) was founded in 2006, with anti-Islam policies at the heart of his party from the start. The party has never been in government but provided key support in 2010 to the ruling coalition led by Mark Rutte’s Dutch liberals (VVD). Two years after the start of that government, Wilders withdrew his support for the minority coalition. Future coalition partners are advised to remind themselves of that experience, and the VVD made a strategic mistake by opening the door for Wilders this time.
In terms of the seats needed to form a majority government, a coalition of Wilders party together with the liberal VVD party and the centrist New Social Contract (NSC) led by Pieter Omtzigt seems the most obvious option at the moment. Omtzigt, a former Christian-Democrat MP, has led a strong campaign focusing on the cost-of-living crisis and shares the VVD position on migration. However, forming a government will not be easy as both VVD and NSC have flagged concerns in the past about Wilders’ stance on the rule of law and the EU.
Despite the complete lack of focus on the EU in the Dutch election campaign, the congratulations for Wilders coming in last night on social media from the likes of Le Pen and Orban are telling examples of the potential implications of these elections for the EU, eight months before the June 2024 European Parliament elections.
All of this is part of a worrying trend of more fragmentation and polarisation in EU Member States. The outcome of the Polish elections in October this year brought some initial hope that this trend was reversing. Still, the Netherlands is the latest example of the perils of relying on opinion polls all over again.
We don’t know yet how long the coalition negotiations are going to last in the Netherlands, but what is clear is that the outcome will impact the Commission’s 2024-2029 mandate. A right-wing government would not only be detrimental to the position of the Netherlands in the EU, but also unwelcome news for the EU institutions in light of the June 2024 elections.
Over the years -especially after Brexit where the Dutch lost an important ally around the Council table- the Netherlands has taken a more assertive stance in the EU. How a new government will position itself on EU files, such as the EU’s support to Ukraine, climate policy and economic governance, depends very much on whether Wilders will manage to form a government.
Clearly the mobilisation of voters expressing political discontent needs to be addressed at the EU level in the years to come. The EU would need to show its ability to solve social problems and implement a fair and just climate transition. Populist parties will argue that social policies and healthcare systems need to be designed at national level and that there is no role for the EU in these areas. Their argument is cynical enough, as the cost of EU non-intervention in these areas is high, as there will be no common standards and ready-made solutions at the national level for the problems of our time, such as an ageing population, migration and climate change.
The outcome of the Dutch elections sends a signal to the EU that it cannot afford to overlook. If the EU fails to come up with preventative and strategic policymaking during its 2024-2029 mandate, divergences between member states will grow to the detriment of EU cohesion.
Elizabeth Kuiper is an Associate Director and Head of the Social Europe and Well-being programme at the European Policy Centre.
Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius, leader of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, or VVD, left, and Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the New Social Contract party, right, talk prior to the start of a meeting with speaker of the House Vera Bergkamp, two days after far-right PVV party leader Geert Wilders won the most votes in a general election, in The Hague, Netherlands, Friday Nov. 24, 2023.
Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right party PVV, or Party for Freedom, gestures during a meeting of leaders of the political parties with speaker of the House Vera Bergkamp, two days after Wilders’ won the most votes in a general election, in The Hague, Netherlands, Friday Nov. 24, 2023.
Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right party PVV, or Party for Freedom, seated, Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius, leader ofthe People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, or VVD, right, and Frans Timmermans, of the center-left two party bloc of Labor Party and Green Left, rear left, arrive for a meeting with speaker of the House Vera Bergkamp, two days after Wilders won the most votes in a general election, in The Hague, Netherlands, Friday Nov. 24, 2023.
Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right party PVV, or Party for Freedom, left, and Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the New Social Contract party, wait for the start of a meeting with speaker of the House Vera Bergkamp, two days after Wilders won the most votes in a general election, in The Hague, Netherlands, Friday Nov. 24, 2023.
Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right party PVV, or Party for Freedom, center, and Frans Timmermans, of the center-left two party bloc of Labor Party and Green Left, right, wait for the start of a meeting with speaker of the House Vera Bergkamp, two days after Wilders won the most votes in a general election, in The Hague, Netherlands, Friday Nov. 24, 2023.
Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right party PVV, or Party for Freedom, center, rubs his face, as Frans Timmermans, of the center-left two party bloc of Labor Party and Green Left, right, wait for the start of a meeting with speaker of the House Vera Bergkamp, two days after Wilders won the most votes in a general election, in The Hague, Netherlands, Friday Nov. 24, 2023.
(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
BY MIKE CORDER
November 24, 2023
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — The process of forming a new Dutch government in the aftermath of far-right firebrand Geert Wilders’ stunning election victory got underway Friday as leaders of political parties met with the chair of parliament’s lower house to appoint a “scout” to investigate possible coalitions.
Wilders’ anti-Islam Party for Freedom, known by its Dutch acronym PVV, won 37 seats in the 150-seat lower house, indicating a seismic shift to the right for the Netherlands. The party of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte won 24, 10 fewer than in the previous election, according to a near complete count of Wednesday’s votes.
The new leader of Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, said ahead of Friday’s meeting that the party known as VVD would not formally join a new coalition but might support one in parliament.
Yeşilgöz-Zegerius told Dutch broadcaster NOS said that after 13 years of Rutte as prime minister and VVD’s loss of lawmaker seats in the election, “another role is appropriate” for the party.
But she added that her party would make “a center-right coalition possible,” meaning VVD would “support constructive proposals.”
The election result paves the way for Wilders to take the lead in forming a new coalition and potentially to succeed Rutte as prime minister. However, he will likely have to convince potential coalition partners that he would tone down some of his anti-Islam policies.
His party’s election platform states that the Netherlands “is not an Islamic country. No Islamic schools, Qurans and mosques.”
One potential coalition partner for Wilders is the recently formed New Social Contract party, or NSC, which won 20 seats. The party’s centrist leader, Pieter Omtzigt, said he could not accept “unconstitutional” policies.
Article 1 of the Constitution of the Netherlands outlaws discrimination “on grounds of religion, belief, political opinion, race, gender, disability, sexual orientation or on any other grounds.”
In an election-night victory speech, Wilders pledged not to push any policies that would breach Dutch law or the constitution.
BY MIKE CORDER
November 24, 2023
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — The process of forming a new Dutch government in the aftermath of far-right firebrand Geert Wilders’ stunning election victory got underway Friday as leaders of political parties met with the chair of parliament’s lower house to appoint a “scout” to investigate possible coalitions.
Wilders’ anti-Islam Party for Freedom, known by its Dutch acronym PVV, won 37 seats in the 150-seat lower house, indicating a seismic shift to the right for the Netherlands. The party of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte won 24, 10 fewer than in the previous election, according to a near complete count of Wednesday’s votes.
The new leader of Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, said ahead of Friday’s meeting that the party known as VVD would not formally join a new coalition but might support one in parliament.
Yeşilgöz-Zegerius told Dutch broadcaster NOS said that after 13 years of Rutte as prime minister and VVD’s loss of lawmaker seats in the election, “another role is appropriate” for the party.
But she added that her party would make “a center-right coalition possible,” meaning VVD would “support constructive proposals.”
The election result paves the way for Wilders to take the lead in forming a new coalition and potentially to succeed Rutte as prime minister. However, he will likely have to convince potential coalition partners that he would tone down some of his anti-Islam policies.
His party’s election platform states that the Netherlands “is not an Islamic country. No Islamic schools, Qurans and mosques.”
One potential coalition partner for Wilders is the recently formed New Social Contract party, or NSC, which won 20 seats. The party’s centrist leader, Pieter Omtzigt, said he could not accept “unconstitutional” policies.
Article 1 of the Constitution of the Netherlands outlaws discrimination “on grounds of religion, belief, political opinion, race, gender, disability, sexual orientation or on any other grounds.”
In an election-night victory speech, Wilders pledged not to push any policies that would breach Dutch law or the constitution.
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