Foreign workers and students’ 'shift in behaviour' skewed net migration estimate
Charles Hymas
Thu, 23 November 2023
In 2022 one in 30 foreign workers left before the 12 months was up - BEN STANSALL/AFP
A major shift in the behaviour of foreign workers and students has been blamed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for a massive underestimate of net migration.
The ONS had originally calculated net migration for the year to December 2022 as 606,000 for the number who had come to the UK to work, study or seek refuge minus those who had emigrated.
However, in its latest analysis, published on Thursday, it upgraded that figure to 745,000, the highest annual net migration on record. It means that 139,000 more people than previously thought arrived in Britain in the year to December 2022.
This was largely because overseas workers and students stayed longer in Britain than previously, meaning their provisional estimates for the year to December were askew and underestimated the number of “long-term” migrants, defined as those staying more than 12 months.
Before the pandemic, one in five students did not stay long term in the UK and instead left before 12 months was up. By 2022, it had fallen to just one in seven.
The trend is even more stark amongst foreign workers. Whereas one in six left before 12 months was up, it fell to one in 30 in 2022.
This is a consequence of the changing nature of international migrants coming to the UK.
Whereas before Brexit, it was predominantly people coming from the UK to live, work and study, they are now non-EU migrants from further afield with an incentive to stay longer given the distance travelled.
They are also more likely than ever before to bring their spouses and children, giving them an extra incentive to stay for longer in the UK as they settle into UK life.
The figures are particularly high for NHS and care staff, with 173,896 dependants brought for 143,990 actual workers, meaning more dependants arrive than actual workers.
For every three students granted a visa, a dependent also got one. This is a dramatic increase from 26 students per dependent in 2019.
The ONS published its 606,000 estimate for the year to December in May, which meant it was “provisional” and based on previous assumptions of migrant behaviour.
Only now, having collected more definitive data, has it been able to make a more accurate estimate.
On Thursday, it said the significant revision of last year’s figures was due to “unexpected patterns” in the behaviour of migrants.
‘Staying for longer’
Jay Lindop, of the ONS, said that before the pandemic migration was “relatively stable but patterns and behaviours have been shifting considerably since then”.
“More recently, we’re not only seeing more students arrive but we can also see they’re staying for longer. More dependents of people with work and study visas have arrived too, and immigration is now being driven by non-EU arrivals,” he said.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said the ONS faced a “trade-off between accuracy and timeliness”.
“The thing that people focus on is the recent figures and I think that they (the ONS) do just face a trade-off between accuracy and timeliness,” she said.
“And I think there’s a cost in terms of public trust, of having – even if the revisions are planned – revisions that are really big.”
She said the hope is that patterns would settle down, leaving it easier to predict who will turn out to be long-term and short-term migrants.
Charles Hymas
Thu, 23 November 2023
In 2022 one in 30 foreign workers left before the 12 months was up - BEN STANSALL/AFP
A major shift in the behaviour of foreign workers and students has been blamed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for a massive underestimate of net migration.
The ONS had originally calculated net migration for the year to December 2022 as 606,000 for the number who had come to the UK to work, study or seek refuge minus those who had emigrated.
However, in its latest analysis, published on Thursday, it upgraded that figure to 745,000, the highest annual net migration on record. It means that 139,000 more people than previously thought arrived in Britain in the year to December 2022.
This was largely because overseas workers and students stayed longer in Britain than previously, meaning their provisional estimates for the year to December were askew and underestimated the number of “long-term” migrants, defined as those staying more than 12 months.
Before the pandemic, one in five students did not stay long term in the UK and instead left before 12 months was up. By 2022, it had fallen to just one in seven.
The trend is even more stark amongst foreign workers. Whereas one in six left before 12 months was up, it fell to one in 30 in 2022.
This is a consequence of the changing nature of international migrants coming to the UK.
Whereas before Brexit, it was predominantly people coming from the UK to live, work and study, they are now non-EU migrants from further afield with an incentive to stay longer given the distance travelled.
They are also more likely than ever before to bring their spouses and children, giving them an extra incentive to stay for longer in the UK as they settle into UK life.
The figures are particularly high for NHS and care staff, with 173,896 dependants brought for 143,990 actual workers, meaning more dependants arrive than actual workers.
For every three students granted a visa, a dependent also got one. This is a dramatic increase from 26 students per dependent in 2019.
The ONS published its 606,000 estimate for the year to December in May, which meant it was “provisional” and based on previous assumptions of migrant behaviour.
Only now, having collected more definitive data, has it been able to make a more accurate estimate.
On Thursday, it said the significant revision of last year’s figures was due to “unexpected patterns” in the behaviour of migrants.
‘Staying for longer’
Jay Lindop, of the ONS, said that before the pandemic migration was “relatively stable but patterns and behaviours have been shifting considerably since then”.
“More recently, we’re not only seeing more students arrive but we can also see they’re staying for longer. More dependents of people with work and study visas have arrived too, and immigration is now being driven by non-EU arrivals,” he said.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said the ONS faced a “trade-off between accuracy and timeliness”.
“The thing that people focus on is the recent figures and I think that they (the ONS) do just face a trade-off between accuracy and timeliness,” she said.
“And I think there’s a cost in terms of public trust, of having – even if the revisions are planned – revisions that are really big.”
She said the hope is that patterns would settle down, leaving it easier to predict who will turn out to be long-term and short-term migrants.
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