Thursday, November 23, 2023

WORKERS CAPITAL
Investors With $11 Trillion Back Plan to Reform Mining Industry

Alastair Marsh
Wed, November 22, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- Some of the world’s biggest investors are throwing their weight behind a plan to reform the mining industry so it can safely meet the growing demand for minerals and metals needed for the green transition.

Investors overseeing a combined $11 trillion, including California State Teachers’ Retirement System and Legal & General Investment Management, are among the first to back the Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030, according to a statement on Wednesday.

The investor group, which was convened this year with the help of the United Nations, said its goal is to “define a vision for a socially and environmentally responsible mining sector” and introduce a set of global standards for the industry covering issues from child labor to biodiversity loss.

Expanding wind, solar and electric-vehicle production will require considerably more minerals and metals than combustion-powered technology. And that’s forcing ESG investors to take a fresh and more critical look at the mining industry, which has been linked to a long list of environmental and social harms from child labor and sexual assault to rivers of toxic sludge and mercury poisoning.

“Mining has never been an easy industry: However, if the energy transition is going to be successful, a significant increase in the supply of sustainably mined minerals is required,” said George Cheveley, a portfolio manager at Ninety One, which also backs the commission. “Only by engaging with the mining industry on multiple levels will we ensure that these minerals can be accessed whilst taking into account the many different stakeholders.”

Other investors to support the initiative include the UK’s Aviva Plc, Dutch pension fund APG-AM and Canada’s Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec.


“The Mining 2030 Commission presents a unique opportunity to step back and consider how investors value, steward and invest for the long term in a sector whose time horizons are multi-decadal and often at odds with short-term investment pressure,” said Adam Matthews, chair of the commission and chief responsible investment officer of the Church of England Pensions Board.

Matthews said earlier this year the risks posed to the renewables boom via the mining industry aren’t getting nearly enough attention. As a result, portfolios intended to uphold environmental, social or good governance principles may end up being exposed to human-rights abuses and environmental damage via supply chains, Matthews said.

 Bloomberg Businessweek


NZ Funds says uranium bet returns over 300% profit


Thu, November 23, 2023

By Nell Mackenzie

LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Asset manager NZ funds has made a 300% return on its bet that the price of uranium would benefit from supply shortages arising from growing geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Russia and China and from a global push to ditch fossil fuels.

In a message to Reuters on Wednesday, NZ Funds, which manages $2.1 billion, said the returns stemmed from a series of trades put on in 2021, when it bought options to buy uranium at between $38.50 and $48.00 at various points up to early 2024.

In November, the price of spot uranium, which does not trade on any financial exchange, reached $80 a pound, its highest in over a decade, according to data from Numerico.

Uranium is a key input in the production of nuclear energy.

NZ Funds said the rise in the uranium price in this time had boosted the returns of its existing options positions by as much as 362% so far.

The fund said it worked with hedge fund advisor Syzygy, who came up with the idea for the trade and structured it, which was then executed by Goldman Sachs.

"The drive for an energy transition has increased positive sentiment towards nuclear energy. Many key countries in the world are adopting new legislation to incentivise nuclear energy development, but also secure future uranium supplies," William Callanan, chief investment officer and founder of Syzygy, said.

Technological advances in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011, combined with the energy crisis stemming from war in Ukraine, have renewed interest in nuclear power, particularly in the United States, which is seeking to reshore many of its commodities supply chains.

In July, the U.S. Senate voted to create a Nuclear Fuel Security Program to bolster domestic supplies of enriched uranium and wean the country off imports.

"This cycle, the demand story, is especially compelling, not only because of utility restocking requirements, but also the massive financial interest that has come from exchange traded funds purchasing physical uranium," said Callanan, the author of the trade, which he said was the first of its kind.

The Global X Uranium ETF, which gives investors exposure to uranium-related shares, for example, has risen 42% this year.

"NZ Funds have the in-house infrastructure and investment team, along with world-class expertise from our partners at Syzygy to support these types of investments," said Mark Brooks, senior portfolio manager at NZ Funds.

Uranium production peaked in the United States in 1980, meaning that since the 1990s, the U.S. has largely been an importer, according the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2022, it received the majority of its uranium from Canada and Kazakhstan, as well as Russia and Uzbekistan, according to the EIA.

Nuclear energy is responsible for 10% of the world's power generation, EIA website statistics show.

Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to a request for comment when contacted by Reuters. (Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Amanda Cooper and David Evans)

US Pensions to Gorge on Corporate Bonds as Funding Levels Soar

Tanaz Meghjani
Wed, November 22, 2023 


(Bloomberg) -- A quirk in retirement fund accounting is making corporate pensions look particularly flush now, giving them more incentive to cut risk by dumping equities and buying bonds.

Corporate bond yields, used to value companies’ pension payouts, have jumped since early last year, effectively allowing fewer dollars now to fund future obligations. That oddity in pension accounting has helped leave retirement plans with 104.2% of the funding they need as of the end of October, data from the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index shows.

That’s the greatest level of overfunding since October 2022 according to the index, which looks at aggregate funding ratios for the 100 biggest corporate pensions. Funding levels have been climbing for more than a decade, helped by a surging stock market.

The surplus could further boost bond buying, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Fully funded pensions often sell equities and buy bonds, particularly corporate notes, to lock in higher yields that can cover future obligations.

“Pension plans are taking advantage of the highest yields in many, many years, which is logical and what they should do and they’re doing it,” said Eric Beinstein, JPMorgan’s head of US high grade credit research and strategy, in an interview. “Not only does the fixed-income yield look attractive, but equity volatility is also a lot higher now. So, you’re not incentivized to hang on another year, thinking maybe stocks will be up.”

Since March 2022, the 100 US public companies sponsoring the largest plans have enjoyed surplus or near-surplus funding levels overall, Milliman’s analysis through October 31 shows. Retirement plans were underfunded for much of the decade or so following the 2008 financial crisis, but that trend reversed after the central bank started raising rates.

“By and large, it is an industry that moves slowly,” said Matt McDaniel, who leads US pension strategy and solutions at consulting firm Mercer. “There probably should be a little bit more urgency. There is one of the ironies of pension risk, is that the better funded you get, the higher your risk is because you have more to lose.”

Traditional yield buyers, namely pension funds and insurance companies, were net buyers of corporate debt through the first half of the year and make up about 30% of total US corporate bond ownership, according to Morgan Stanley.

“While we don’t have real-time data to track these flows, anecdotally demand has accelerated further in 3Q so far, especially in September,” strategists including Vishwas Patkar wrote in an October note. “There is significant room to grow, especially if complete duration hedging is the ultimate goal.”

The strategists expect yield buyer demand to stay robust, though they say “some normalizing of rates volatility is needed.”

The demand comes as US investment-grade debt issuance has shrunk — helping tighten spreads on corporate debt.

“We are under-supplied in the product that liability-driven investors want to own the most and that is long duration,” said Maureen O’Connor, global head of high-grade debt syndicate at Wells Fargo & Co. “A lot of that has to do with pensions rotating from equities to fixed-income.”

Insurers and pensions are known as liability-driven investors as their strategies involve funding future liabilities. Their investments, such as equity or debt, are determined by their obligations.

The average spread on US corporate bonds stood at 113 basis points on Tuesday — 11 basis points tighter than the average of 124 basis points seen over the last decade, even after more than a year-and-a-half of monetary tightening, which has raised recessionary risks.

Long-Duration Bet

Across most multi-tranche high-grade deals this year, the longer-dated tranches have been the most oversubscribed, and new issue concessions are now tightest at the long-end of the curve, according to O’Connor. That shows liability-driven investors are willing to buy at very close to fair value, she said.

“The liability-driven investors’ bid for duration and the absence of supply has been topical almost all year,” she said. “And it’s definitely going to continue to be, going forward.”

Still, that doesn’t mean the tightening is “logical,” JPMorgan strategists led by Beinstein pointed out in a September report. There’s a lot of time between 10 and 30 years for credit risk to deteriorate, which risk premiums ought to provide compensation for, but instead they’ve fallen to the low end of the historical range, they noted.

Bingeing on Bonds

Pensions usually see the present value of their liabilities drop as rates climb. By the end of October, pension liabilities had fallen to about $1.179 trillion, from $1.685 trillion at the end of February 2022, just before the Fed started hiking, Milliman’s data shows.

“I’m not an economist, and I don’t think anybody can forecast interest rates, but it’s hard to believe that interest rates would be significantly higher than they are right now,” said Zorast Wadia, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman. When rates eventually come down, “pensions are going to see a rise in their liabilities unless they’re locked in.”

Last month, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields started crossing above 5% before retreating, further incentivizing pension plans to double down on fixed-income investments. Higher bond yields have also boosted the percentage that retirees can withdraw annually from personal savings over 30 years, with a strong chance of not running out of money, according to Morningstar’s annual retirement income report out last week.

“We are seeing plan sponsors — a lot of plan sponsors actually — set explicit investment strategies that say, ‘When I hit a trigger point of 95% funded or 100% funded, I’m going to take X number of assets from the equity portfolio and move it to the fixed-income portfolio’,” said Mercer’s McDaniel.

“Those that don’t have those formal-type strategies are still having the same conversations and saying, ‘Hey, if I took 60% equity risk when I was 80% funded and now I’m 105% funded, it probably makes sense to be taking a little bit less today’,” he added. “So, we’re definitely seeing plan sponsors making those moves.”

Meanwhile, US equity markets have been rattled this year by war in the Middle East and concerns around the strength of US consumers, giving pension fund managers another reason to move into safer assets like bonds.

“We’re always out talking to our clients and those that we work with saying, ‘Look, we’ve seen this story before where funded status looks great and it falls down’,” said McDaniel. “‘Let’s make sure once you get to those periods where funded status is in a good spot, you’re doing something to protect yourself’.”

Bloomberg Businessweek

AustralianSuper to Reject Revised ‘Low-Ball’ Origin Energy Offer

Chris Bourke
Wed, November 22, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- Origin Energy Ltd.’s largest shareholder AustralianSuper said it will vote against the revised A$19.1 billion ($12.5 billion) offer for the utility by a Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.-led consortium.

“This latest low-ball offer strengthens AustralianSuper’s view that the offer remains substantially below our estimate of Origin’s long-term value,” the pension fund said in a statement. “AustralianSuper is resolute the value and future value of Origin is better in the hands of AustralianSuper members and other shareholders than a private equity consortium planning to shortchange them.”

AustralianSuper confirmed it now owned more than 17% of Origin, in the statement.


Origin asked investors to vote on a revised offer on Dec. 4, postponing a scheduled meeting for Thursday after proxy results showed the existing proposal would fail. Under the amendments, institutional investors would be given an opportunity to re-invest into Origin’s energy generation and retailing business after the unit is sold to Brookfield as part of the existing offer, the target said.

 Bloomberg Businessweek

AustralianSuper rejects unsolicited offer from Brookfield co...
Nov 13, 2023 ... believe the offer remains substantially below our estimate of Origin's long-term value. The Fund will be voting against the takeover scheme

Vote over Origin Energy $20bn


 takeover bid delayed until next


 month as revised offer on table

Energy company says vote will be on 4 December


 so shareholders can consider offer from


 Brookfield and EIG


Peter Hannam
Thu 23 Nov 2023
 
The battle for the future of Origin Energy, one of Australia’s biggest energy companies, will be extended until early next month after takeover bidders lodged a revised offer on the eve of Thursday’s vote.

Canadian investor group Brookfield and its US-based partner EIG had offered shareholders the equivalent of $9.43 a share, valuing Origin at about $20bn.

A shareholder vote, planned for Thursday afternoon, looked set to fail to secure the required 75% after AustralianSuper vowed to use its 17.5% stake to seek to block the takeover. The superfund argued the offer undervalued Origin.

With hours to go before the vote, Origin announced the vote would now take place on 4 December to give shareholders the chance to consider the latest revised offer.

The so-called “non-binding and indicative proposal” hinges on whether shareholders reject the $9.43 a share offer. The back-up plan would amount to about $9.30 a share including dividends, and would be harder to block.

“While the alternative transaction may present an additional opportunity for shareholders to receive cash value for their shares, the board notes that the transaction appears inferior to the existing scheme,” the company said in a statement.

“The board has significant reservations as to the complexity, conditionality and differing value, and potential adverse tax outcomes to Origin and shareholders,” it said.

Origin shares, which had been in trading halt pending the update, ended the day down 9 cents, or 1.1%, to $8.33 - well short of both versions of the bid.

Brookfield had pledged to invest between $20bn-$30bn in Origin’s generation business to expedite and expand renewable energy projects assets. EIG, partly owned by the Saudi Arabian oil giant, Aramco, would snap up Origin’s gas interests.

A spokesperson for AustralianSuper said the fund would reject last-minute attempts by the consortium “to buy more time” to acquire Origin.

“This latest low-ball offer strengthens AustralianSuper’s view that the offer remains substantially below our estimate of Origin’s long-term value,” the person said

“AustralianSuper is resolute the value and future value of Origin is better in the hands of AustralianSuper members and other shareholders than a private equity consortium planning to shortchange them.”

For its part, Brookfield said it remained “committed to investing in the Australian energy transition through the acquisition of Origin Energy”.

“Our alternative proposal creates a further opportunity for investors to realise compelling value for their Origin shares if the existing Scheme continues to be opposed by a handful of shareholders,” a Brookfield spokesperson said.

“Our plan is to invest up to $30 billion to decarbonise Origin, contribute meaningfully to Australia’s emissions-reductions targets and, in doing so, create jobs,” the person said, adding Brookfield had “access to capital, decades of renewables operating expertise and a global procurement presence”.


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