Coup generals in trouble as Myanmar's military faces heavy losses

2023/12/04

Military weapons confiscated by an armed group in Loikaw, Karenni State. In many parts of Myanmar, ethnic groups are currently fighting successfully against the junta. 

Myo Satt Hla Thaw/dpa

There is an ominous atmosphere in the town of Chinshwehaw on the China-Myanmar border where soldiers from the Burmese army and its allied militias used to bustle through the streets.

That changed last month, in an operation launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliances. Local fighters say they gained control of the Chinshwehaw border gate area in just three days, in what they call “the 1027 operation.”

Now, it is the flags of the armed resistance that are waving in Chinshwehaw, the second largest trade border gate with China.

The scene in the Kokang self-administered region has become a nightmare for the Burmese military - and not the only one. The flags of the opposition are also flying in Pensai, another key town.

Much is changing in Myanmar since the violent coup of 2021 when military leaders ousted de facto head of government Aung San Suu Kyi, then imposed brutal rule over the country.

Resistance fighters are making gains as local militias - in this case the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) - fight back in the biggest challenge for the military since the coup.

The ruling generals face battles nationwide. Armed groups have risen up and taken over towns and military posts in Chin State on the border with India and Bangladesh, in Karenni State in the far east, in Rakhine State, in Kachin State and in the Sagaing region.

“As of now, we have occupied at least 180 bases and outposts of the Burmese military in Northern Shan State, with our allies. We occupied major towns on the China-Myanmar border as well,” Li Kyar Wen, an MNDAA spokesperson, told dpa.

The once-dominant Burmese military and its border guards have vanished in those areas, replaced by the MNDAA and its allies.

The Brotherhood Alliance of three ethnic armed groups is made up of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA). These groups are known to be close to China.

The operation is also joined by popular defence forces including the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) and the Mandalay PDF.

The MNDAA has dubbed the events of 1027 as the "Battle of Homecoming," their attempt to reclaim Laukkai, the capital they were forced to desert in 2009 by the Burmese military.

In Shan State, the “1027 Operation” is a huge blow to the military which has been embroiled in conflicts with ethnic armed groups nationwide for more than seven decades.

More than 200 soldiers from the Burmese military have been killed since 1027, said Li Kyar Wen. The Brotherhood Alliance says more than 300 soldiers capitulated as the Brotherhood Alliance attacked their posts and bases in northern Shan State.

Beijing is watching with concern. The Brotherhood Alliance has seized at least six towns in China-Myanmar border areas, where China plans to implement strategic projects under its Belt and Road Initiative.

The Chinese border area in Myanmar is known for casinos and online scam enterprises, where people are forced to work as online scammers by criminal groups.

These sites in northern Shan State, the Wa self-administered region, Kokang self-administered region and Mongla self-administered region - known as the 'City of Sins' - mainly rely on Chinese money and gamblers.

But Beijing recently cracked down on cyber scams in Northern Shan State. In November, China's Ministry of Public Security announced that 31,000 people from Nothern Shan State, have been arrested and transferred to China for their involvement in online fraud.

“China appears dissatisfied with the current political and security power balance in Northern Shan State,” Nan Lwin, programme head of China Studies at the ISP-Myanmar, an independent think-tank focusing on peace, conflict and China, told dpa.

While "Operation 1027" could lead to short-term regional instability in Northern Shan State, China might still tolerate it as the operation could help resolve the online fraud and gambling gangs crisis in the short term, says ISP-Myanmar.

Meanwhile the fighting is causing growing displacement. More than 50,000 people fled their homes due to clashes, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Myanmar.

Local media in Shan say at least 30,000 of those who fled are on the border, while 8,000 crossed into China.

More is ahead as the MNDAA plans to launch an attack on Laukkai, the capital of Kokang, the hub of online gambling and cyber-fraud operations.

The military and MNDAA are currently blocking the town gates, leading to fears among residents of food shortages, given the region's heavy dependence on China for essential goods.

Uprisings are taking place across the country as ethnic armed groups and resistance forces launch operations against the military, particularly in Kachin, Karenni and Rakhine States and Sagaing Region.

The Kareni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) in Karenni occupied eight military bases and outposts in the state and seized a university in Loikaw, the capital of Karenni State.

The Arakan Army (AA) also seized four military and police outposts in Rakhine State. Junta forces deserted more than 40 military outposts as the AA says it launched a series of attacks in those areas.

Besides northern Shan State, more than 100 soldiers also surrendered mainly the Karenni and other armed conflict areas, say resistance forces.

The many groups are pursuing similar goals: Self-determination.

“All the allied forces across the country are currently engaged in a collective effort combating the military regime to pave the way for the establishment of a federal democracy,” says Khun Beedu, the leader of the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF).

“While there may be some collateral damages and losses during the operations, the ultimate goal is to completely eradicate the junta regime,” he said.

Members of an armed group in Loikaw, Karenni State, help civilians after a military strike by the military. In many parts of Myanmar, ethnic groups are currently fighting successfully against the junta. Myo Satt Hla Thaw/dpa

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