Climate: What is the global stocktake?
23 hours ago
The first global climate progress report found the world won't meet its climate goals, amid soaring temperatures. Will countries "chart a better course" to cut planet-heating emissions at key UN climate talks?
In a year of record-breaking temperatures — both on land and in the sea — the final summary of the recent UN global stocktake report held a dire warning for the planet.
"The window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all is rapidly closing," said the report, the first of its kind. "The Paris Agreement has driven near-universal climate action by setting goals and sending signals to the world regarding the urgency of responding to the climate crisis. While action is proceeding, much more is needed now on all fronts."
The global stocktake, the culmination of two years of analysis by climate scientists, government officials and other experts, is a review of the world's collective progress toward meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of limiting global heating. And it has shown that the world is far off track.
UN warns world off track to meeting development goals 02:48
The report stressed that the goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century was becoming increasingly unrealistic. The UN's World Meteorological Organization has said there's a two-out-of-three chance that Earth will temporarily exceed that threshold within the next five years.
In order for the world to stay at 1.5 Celsius, the report said the use of unabated coal power would have to drop by 67-82% by 2030 versus 2019 levels, and drop to almost nothing by mid-century.
The authors of the report also called for "the phaseout of unabated fossil fuels" and for more funding to support low-carbon development. It said the world needed to redirect the $450 billion (€424 billion) in annual subsidies for coal, oil and natural gas, calling for increased funding for people and places hurt by extreme weather caused by global warming.
Disappointment over first draft
Climate negotiators and world leaders are using these findings to shape discussions at the UN climate conference Dubai, with arguments around whether to "phase out" or "phase down" all fossil fuels set to dominate.
A draft text relating to the stocktake published December 1 by the UN Climate Change secretariat (just like the stocktake itself) noted with "concern" the "rapidly narrowing window" for countries to raise their ambitions on cutting emissions to limit warming to 1.5 C.
But the text still makes reference to a possible "phase-down" of oil, coal and gas. Activists, scientists and, most recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have said a full phaseout of climate-wrecking fossil fuels is necessary to stop catastrophic planetary heating.
"We must now all show a firm determination to phase out fossil fuels — first and foremost coal. We can set sail for this at this climate conference," Scholz told delegates at the COP28 summit on Saturday.
In the meantime, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, COP28 president and head of Abu Dhabi's state-run oil company, was forced to reiterate his faith in climate science after a video showed him questioning the scientific consensus that a fossil fuel phaseout is necessary to curb global warming.
Other stumbling blocks at COP28
At climate talks in Bonn, Germany, back in June, Harjeet Singh of the Climate Action Network International told DW the thorny questions about who is responsible for planet-warming emissions — both now and in the past — and who is going to finance efforts to reverse course and adapt to the increasingly destructive impacts of climate change continue to dominate.
"Developing countries have to make a choice," said the head of global political strategy, pointing out that they are working with limited resources. "Every day, they have to choose between feeding people on the ground or investing in solar technologies."
Speaking with reporters, he stressed that "finance and equity are going to determine whether we put the world on the right track or it's going to be a doomsday scenario."
"The success of the global stocktake will ultimately determine the success of COP28," wrote UN climate chief Simon Stiell. "It is the defining moment of this year, this COP and — as one of the only two stocktaking moments in this decisive decade of climate action — ultimately pivotal to whether or not we meet our 2030 goals."
How does the global stocktake work?
The idea for the global stocktake came out of the 2015 Paris deal, with countries agreeing to regularly assess how the world was slashing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to the impacts of a changing world and securing the necessary funds to address the climate crisis.
"The global stocktake is an ambition exercise. It's an accountability exercise. It's an acceleration exercise," said Stiell. "It's an exercise that is intended to make sure every party is holding up their end of the bargain, knows where they need to go next and how rapidly they need to move to fulfill the goals of the Paris Agreement."
The first part of the process, which began back in 2021 and ended earlier this year, involved collecting the latest data on emissions, adaptation efforts and countries' nationally determined contributions, or national climate action plans.
The second phase, the technical assessment which concluded at the Bonn talks in June, gave experts and climate representatives the chance to evaluate the data ahead of political discussions at COP28.
Singh said most international agreements don't have a process like the global stocktake, which allows a periodic review and a chance to develop a forward-looking plan.
"It's unique, a really important process. But we need to make sure it is meaningful, and not just a technical process which will not lead to ambitious action," he said.
Stocktake an 'opportunity to chart a better course'
David Waskow, of the US-based think tank World Resources Institute, said ahead of the Bonn conference that the global stocktake will help shape how countries update their nationally determined contributions in key areas like energy transition, food systems, transport and sustainable consumption, a process they must do by 2025.
"The stocktake was quite explicitly designed to inform the next round of NDCs," he said. "This is really an opportunity to show how the implementation will happen, how the transformation will happen."
"The timing is really important," Singh told DW. "We've heard from scientists, we know what is needed. Now what we need is a political direction. And that's what the world leaders have to deliver."
This article was upated on December 5, 2023 with the latest from the COP28 climate conference in Dubai.
Edited by: Tamsin Walker
DW
As world leaders meet at the UN climate summit in Dubai, a new report shows that carbon emissions are set to hit a record high, with the potential to make climate change worse and fuel more destructive, extreme weather.
Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas are expected to hit a record high in 2023, according to a report released on Tuesday.
The Global Carbon Budget report, published by scientists from more than 90 institutions around the world, said total global CO2 emissions are set to hit 36.8 billion metric tons in 2023 — a 1.1% increase on 2022.
Chiefly responsible for the increase, according to the report, are India and China.
The rise in India is a result of power demand growing faster than its renewable energy capacity, leaving fossil fuels to make up the shortfall. In China, fossil fuel emissions have risen dramatically since the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions.
"The effects of climate change are obvious all around us, but efforts to reduce carbon emissions through the burning of fossil fuels remain painfully slow," said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, who led the research.
"It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5 C target of the Paris Agreement," he added, referring to the attempt to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.
COP28 in Dubai: Calls for fossil fuel phase-out
The publication of the Global Carbon Budget report comes as government representatives and industry leaders gather at COP28, the United Nations climate change conference being hosted this year in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
"Leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2C target alive," said Professor Friedlingstein.
According to a draft negotiating text seen by the Reuters news agency on Tuesday, some participating countries at the climate conference are considering calling for a formal phase-out of fossil fuels as part of the summit's final deal to fight global warming.
But major oil and gas producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have historically resisted such proposals. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg TV that his country would "absolutely not" agree to a deal that calls for a phase-down of fossil fuels.
A second option listed in the draft calls for "accelerating efforts toward phasing out unabated fossil fuels," while a third option would be to avoid mentioning a fossil fuel phase-out altogether.
"We're not talking about turning the tap off overnight," German Climate Envoy Jennifer Morgan said. "What you're seeing here is a real battle about what energy system of the future we are going to build together."
How likely is a meaningful deal?
On the COP28 main stage, the chief executives of several major energy firms argued in favor of oil and gas, and sought to highlight their climate-friendly credentials such as cutting emissions of the greenhouse gas methane.
"We are big guys and we can do big things. We can deliver results and we will have to report them very soon," said Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said: "We need absolutely to produce oil and gas in a different way by slashing emissions. And we can do it, we have the technology." But he said it would take a long time.
David Waskow, director of World Resources Institute's international climate initiative, said he did not think a COP28 outcome was possible without a clear mandate for moving away from the global reliance on oil, gas and coal.
"I don't think we're going to leave Dubai without some clear language and some clear direction on shifting away from fossil fuels," he said.
mf/nm (Reuters, dpa)
18 hours ago
Early drafts of the COP28 agreement refer to the "phasedown/out" of fossil fuels, which are responsible for most climate emissions. The final wording will likely be disputed. What's the difference — and does it matter?
The heated issue of fossil fuel energy, which is responsible for most of the planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, has always been divisive at UN climate conferences.
The fact that this year's summit is being hosted by petrostate United Arab Emirates (UAE), a global leader in the oil and gas industry, is focusing the spotlight on the issue even more.
Sultan al-Jaber, who is presiding over this year's COP28 climate talks and also runs the host nation's state-run oil giant ADNOC, has denied media reports in which he appeared to question the scientific consensus that coal, oil and gas must be phased out to curb global warming.
Speaking with reporters on December 4, al-Jaber insisted his remarks had been taken out of context and that he is "laser-focused" on finding a way to limit global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.
"I have said over and over that the phasedown and the phaseout of fossil fuels is inevitable, that it is essential," said al-Jaber.
Phaseout, phasedown: What's the difference?
It might only be a word of difference, but it is meaningful.
The phasing down of fossil fuels would mean that countries agree to scale back their use of fossil fuels in favor of more climate-friendly energy — non-fossil sources like wind, solar and hydro, and nuclear energy. But it still implies that fossil fuels would be a part of the world's energy mix as efforts to get climate change under control continue.
A phaseout, however, calls for a complete end to burning fossil fuels for energy. That action plan, so far, hasn't found much support with delegates at previous climate summits, especially from nations relying on oil and gas exports for revenue.
Major producers like the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia have previously resisted calls for eliminating the use of fossil fuels. Most recently, on December 4, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said he would "absolutely not" agree to phasing down fossil fuels, never mind phasing them out.
"And I assure you not a single person — I'm talking about governments — believes in that," he told Bloomberg TV.
Earlier this year, UAE Climate Change and Environment Minister Mariam Almheiri instead backed the phasing out of fuel emissions, not the exploitation of oil, gas and coal. She argued that a phaseout would only hurt countries that depend on fossil fuels to prop up their economies.
"The renewable space is advancing and accelerating extremely fast but we are nowhere near to be able to say that we can switch off fossil fuels and solely depend on clean and renewable energy," Almheiri told the Reuters news agency.
"We are now in a transition and this transition needs to be just and pragmatic because not all countries have the resources," she said. A November 2023 report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) found that the UAE's state oil company, ADNOC, has a $150-billion (€140-million) investment plan to boost its oil production capacity by 2027.
Instead, Almheiri suggested eliminating fossil fuel emissions using carbon capture and sequestration technology, saying countries could fight warming and continue to produce oil, gas and coal.
Critics, however, have said this approach would be too expensive. And with less than 0.1% of global emissions captured by such technology today, according to research firm BloombergNEF, it's unlikely to be a significant part of the solution any time soon.
Calls for phaseout relatively new at COP
Even though vast body of scientific research has linked back the ongoing use of fossil fuels to climate change for years, COP delegates have not officially spoken about plans to eliminate them until recently.
It was only two years ago at COP26 in Glasgow that negotiators agreed, for the first time, to "phase down unabated coal power and inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels."
A year later at UN climate talks in Egypt, a group of more than 80 countries including the European Union and small island nations agreed to upgrade that language to include all fossil fuels. They were ultimately blocked by oil, gas and coal-producing nations opposed to the move.
"Even a few years ago, it was unthinkable to have a decision on fossil fuel phaseout at COP because of the influence of oil and gas producing countries," Romain Ioualalen of the advocacy organization Oil Change International told DW.
With global carbon dioxide emissions expected to hit a record high in 2023, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at the opening of the COP28 climate summit on December 1 that it was time to act.
"We cannot save a burning planet with a firehose of fossil fuels," he said. "The science is clear: the 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate. Phaseout — with a clear timeframe aligned with 1.5 degrees."
Edited by: Tamsin Walker
Frontiers is gearing up for COP28 to address the climate emergency
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parties meet every year at the Conference of the Parties (COP) to negotiate and agree action on how to tackle climate change, limit emissions, and halt global warming. These gatherings are the world's highest decision-making body on climate issues and one of the largest international meetings in the world. COP28 will provide a milestone opportunity for the world to come together, course correct, and drive progress to keep 1.5C within reach - so we can meet the goals and ambitions of the Paris Agreement. It will be a pivotal moment for the world to unite around tangible climate action and deliver realistic solutions.
Addressing climate change, the paramount challenge of our era, hinges upon harmonizing fundamental human needs with sustainable climate remedies. Despite heightened awareness and global pledges, advancements in climate action have lagged and, at moments, fallen short. Confronting this hurdle, open science emerges as a pivotal force for innovation and a driver of groundbreaking solutions, playing a vital role in addressing climate change challenges.
As world leaders convene at COP28 in an effort to reach consensus on actions to prevent the planet from surpassing the 1.5-degree limit, making scientific data and publications openly accessible is a crucial component of any proposed strategy and measures. With numerous nations having embraced open science principles, a global agreement to strengthen them is within reach at COP28 and would constitute a tangible achievement.
FRONTIERS ON A MISSION
Open science platform Frontiers and the Frontiers Research Foundation will participate in the 28th session of the COP, taking place from 30 November to 12 December in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to ascertain the undeniable power of open science and advance the mission to make science open so that scientists can collaborate better and innovate faster to deliver the solutions that enable healthy lives on a healthy planet.
As an open access publisher, Frontiers is committed to fostering open and transparent scientific communication and collaboration if we are to stand a chance to find solutions to the biggest challenge of our time. During COP28, Frontiers will showcase its latest initiatives to support global efforts to combat climate change, achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and fulfill the goal of becoming net-zero by 2050.
FRONTIERS IN ACTION AT COP28
The urgent nature of the climate crisis demands swift and comprehensive action. Our world stands at the cliff face of irreversible changes, each carrying severe consequences for life as we know it. To combat this, a diverse range of scientific solutions is imperative, and the most effective catalyst lies in making science open. It is the simplest and most cost-effective accelerator for scientific solutions and to save lives. To discuss the pathways towards innovative, sustainable solutions and actions, Frontiers will host several panels in Dubai featuring prominent experts and decision makers from policy, academia, and industry.
UN Climate Change Global Innovation Hub Opening Ceremony
This session will officially open the UN Climate Change Global Innovation Hub (UGIH) COP28 dialogue and feature high-level statements from UGIH supporting partners on their reasons for engagement and plans moving forward. Frontiers’ collaboration with the UGIH will be embodied in commitment to co-develop the Hub’s Digital Platform as a Knowledge partner and to assist in disseminating the UGIH workshops’ outcomes through Frontiers’ journals and Policy Labs, which will be consolidated in official signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between Frontiers and the UNFCCC. Moderated by Jorn Verbeeck, KPMG Sustainability and ESG Senior Manager and Board Member of EU Climate Neutral and Smart Cities Mission, the panel will include:
Nitin Arora, Project Manager, UN Climate Change Global Innovation Hub
Massamba Thioye, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Kirsten Dunlop, CEO, Climate-KIC
Dennis Pamlin, Executive Director, Mission Innovation
Martin Wainstein, Executive Director, Open Earth Foundation
Andy Deacon, Co-managing Director, Global Covenant of Mayor
Luis Neves, CEO, Global Enabling Sustainability Initiative
Frederick Fenter, Chief Executive Editor, Frontiers
Stephan de Haas, Head of Co-Creation and Client Consulting, T-Systems International.
Watch the session here.
Systems Change and Innovation for Climate and Sustainability Action
How can innovation serve climate and sustainability goals for the benefit of people and the planet? This is the question that will guide this high-level session, which will explore how a need-based and solution-oriented approach to innovation, combined with moonshot mindsets and systems thinking, can enable climate and sustainability solution providers to act appropriately. Additionally, the session will discuss identifying, developing, and scaling these transformative and ambitious solutions in alignment with climate goals. Moderated by Massamba Thioye, the panel will be represented by:
Catarina Selada, Head of Policy and Intelligence Unit, Centre of Engineering and Development
Jean-Claude Burgelman, Director, Frontiers Planet Prize, former Head of Open Science Unit, European Commission
Anna Stanley-Radière, Director, Climate Transparency, Co-leader, World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Mike Hayes, Climate Change and Decarbonization Leader, Global Head of Renewable Energy, KPMG International.
Watch the session here.
Open Science for Inclusive and Transformative Climate and Sustainability Innovation
Climate change requires global cooperation, yet reconfiguring infrastructure systems for a zero-carbon world proves cost-prohibitive for many nations. Recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated the power of open knowledge sharing to supercharge innovation and deliver timely solutions. Open science can offer equally transformative change when applied to the existential threats posed by climate change that respond to core human needs. Moderated by Henry Markram, co-founder of Frontiers and professor of neuroscience at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL), this panel will explore the advantages of open science as an accelerator of inclusive and sustainable climate innovation. Private and public sector leaders will discuss the importance of making scientific results openly available in order to boost innovation, increase public consensus, and bolster political will to act. Panelists will include:
Vladimir Ryabinin, UNESCO Assistant Director-General; Executive Secretary, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
Maria Espinosa, former UN General Assembly President UNGA; former Ecuador External Affairs Minister
Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Climate Change and Health Unit Head, World Health Organization
Gavin McCormick, Executive Director, WattTime; Co-founder, Climate TRACE
Lars Peter Riishøjgaard, Director, World Meteorological Organization.
Watch the session here.
The timing of this panel corresponds to the official launch of the Open Science Charter, an initiative by the Frontiers Research Foundation, which urges governments, research institutions, and funders, as well as industry leaders and citizens of the world to commit and act in four main areas:
Unrestricted access to scientific knowledge by 2030: Commit to transitioning all published research articles from subscription to fully open-access models before the end of this decade.
Uphold peer-review quality: Preserve and champion the core values of scientific publishing, including registration, validation, certification, and perpetual conservation of scientific findings.
Transparent pricing linked to quality: Adopt transparent financial models that directly correlate the price of publication with the quality of services offered.
Strengthen trust in science: Make the knowledge available to the public who helped pay for it and who will benefit from its accessibility.
Read and sign The Charter here.
Pathways to a Sustainable Earth: Unlocking Solutions through Transformational Science
How can transformational science be used to unlock breakthrough, scalable solutions for our planet? This session will critically examine the key obstacles and challenges that must be addressed today to fully harness the potential of transformational science as the basis for policy discourse. It will also draw upon the expertise of diverse stakeholders and seek to find consensus on what the missing links are that translate science into action, and what most effective dissemination mechanisms and outlets are needed to bridge this gap. Moderate by Wendy Broadgate, from Future Earth and the Earth Commission, this panel will welcome the following panelists:
Sandrine Dixson-Decleve, Co-President, Club of Rome
Joeri Roelji, Director of Research, Grantham Institute; Professor of Climate Science and Policy, Imperial College London
Paul Behrens, Leiden University, Frontiers Planet Prize international champion 2023 (virtual)
Clea Kaske-Kuck, Director, Partnerships and Stakeholder Engagement, World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Lars Peter Riishøjgaard, Director, Global Greenhouse Gas Watch, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Frederick Fenter, Chief Executive Editor, Frontiers
Watch the session here.
Embracing Open Science for the Climate Crisis: Collaborative Solutions for a Resilient Future
The session will explore how various disciplines and stakeholders are navigating new frontiers of open science in the context of the climate crisis. It will offer international perspectives on current and future applications of open science in biodiversity, physical science, and ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance), while seeking to find corporate-academia synergies using open science for community resilience. Moderated by Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli of University Malaya, the panel will consist of:
Shaliza Binti Ibrahim, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, University Malaya; Co-Chair, Malaysia Open Science Alliance
Anna Pirani, Head, WGI Technical Support Unit (TSU), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Tan Sri Zakri Abdul Hamid, Technology and Innovation Cluster Lead, MNRECC Advisory Panel for COP28
Martin Siegert, Co-director, Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment
Dato' Ami Moris, Board Member, University Malaya; Advisor, Maybank.
ADVANCING CLIMATE ACTION RESEARCH
COP28 in Dubai will witness the presentation of the new research article The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization, which was recently published in Frontiers in Science, Frontiers’ flagship multidisciplinary, open-access journal focused on transformational science. The article examines the concept of zero emissions commitment (ZEC), which quantifies the amount of global warming that would occur after greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero. In the piece, the authors review the current scientific understanding of ZEC, its uncertainties, and its implications for climate stabilization and policy. Such knowledge is an important addition in navigating transformative pathways towards a climate-stable future.
As this year's COP28 marks another crucial milestone in the global response to the climate crisis, Frontiers has launched a new research topic to curate a collection of papers presenting COP28's pressing discussions and themes as well as its outcome and solutions. The Advancing Climate Action: Insights from COP28 research topic is a collaborative effort across several Frontiers journals: Frontiers in Environmental Science, Frontiers in Sustainable Resource Management, Frontiers in Climate, Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, Frontiers in Sustainability, Frontiers in Ocean Sustainability, and Frontiers in Sustainable Energy Policy. It invites contributions from various disciplines and sectors on topics such as mitigation, adaptation, and resilience, in addition to cross-cutting issues such as equity, culture, and transformation. To learn more and submit your research, please visit this dedicated research topic page.
The climate emergency demands immediate action, and science plays a pivotal role in finding sustainable solutions. Open science, with its commitment to knowledge-sharing, can accelerate our response to the climate crisis and offer solutions. As we start COP28, the time for rhetoric is over. It is the time for action.
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