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PUTIN'S PET FASCISTEuropean leaders try to stop Orbán derailing Ukraine’s EU accession bid
Shaun Walker, Lisa O'Carroll and Lili Bayer
Wed, 6 December 2023
Photograph: Johanna Geron/Reuters
European leaders are scrambling to rescue a plan to begin European Union accession negotiations for Ukraine, as Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, vows to block the decision at a summit of EU leaders next week.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is due to host Orbán for dinner in Paris on Thursday, while the European Council president, Charles Michel, was in Budapest last week looking for a way out of the impasse.
Orbán, widely seen as the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, has said repeatedly that he will not support Ukraine’s path to accession at this point. On Monday, he sent a letter to Michel demanding to take the issue off the agenda at the leaders’ meeting next Thursday and Friday.
“The obvious lack of consensus would inevitably lead to failure,” if the issue remains on the table, Orbán wrote in the letter, a copy of which has been seen by the Guardian.
Many in Brussels believe Orbán is repeating a favoured tactic of playing hardball to seek gains from EU partners, before eventually falling into line. However, political and diplomatic sources in Budapest said they did not believe the Hungarian leader was likely to relent this time.
“After he sent the letter saying that we shouldn’t discuss the issue at all I don’t see a sudden backtracking,” said Ágoston Mraz, director of Nézőpont, a thinktank close to Orbán’s Fidesz party. “In politics you can never say never, but as far as I see it, there is no chance.”
The European Commission recommended in November that formal EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova should begin, which its president, Ursula von der Leyen, described as a response to “the call of history”.
The decision to recommend proceeding with Ukraine’s candidacy was a rare bright spot for Kyiv, coming at a time when the situation on the battlefield looks increasingly intractable and with the Biden administration’s ability to continue sending funds to Ukraine looking increasingly shaky.
If agreed, the move would be just the first step in a long journey. Michel has spoken about accepting Ukraine into the EU by the end of the decade, though the process usually takes longer.
Related: EU must not ‘appease’ Viktor Orbán by unfreezing billions earmarked for Hungary
Orbán has long been at loggerheads with Brussels over various issues, including democratic backsliding and the erosion of judicial independence in Hungary, which led to the freezing of tens of billions of euros of funding for Budapest. There are signs that some of that money may soon begin to flow, which may help to win Orbán’s grudging approval for a big EU financial aid package for Ukraine, something he has also spoken against. But the funds alone are unlikely to prompt movement on the accession issue, sources said.
For years, Orbán has said Hungary’s main issue with Ukraine is that it wants Kyiv to provide more rights to its Hungarian minority community. Ukraine’s parliament is due to consider a bill that answers most of Budapest’s concerns on Friday, but Orbán has now moved the goalposts, criticising Ukraine in more general terms.
Dmytro Tuzhansky, director of the Institute of Central European Strategy in the Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod, said: “Since 2017, Orbán and his team have used minority rights as a pretext. Now, suddenly, he is not putting the link there any more, and he’s saying it’s because Ukraine is not ready, Ukraine is not democratic. It’s pure political blackmail.”
Orbán has often pursued a rogue foreign policy at odds with Hungary’s status as a Nato member, frequently criticising Ukraine while maintaining economic ties with Russia. In October, he was the only EU leader to travel to a summit in China, where he met Putin, drawing sharp criticism from other EU leaders. He is one of the few European leaders not to have travelled to Kyiv since the beginning of the full-scale invasion and is widely disliked in the Ukrainian capital.
“If a member of an alliance breaks the rules and tries to publicly demean the decisions taken by this alliance and subject them to doubt, this is an internal EU discussion to be had privately,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in an interview in Kyiv. “If you are a member of a community you should share the values of the community, and if you don’t, you should leave this community.”
Orbán has a long history of pushing the EU to the brink before eventually folding, and a last-minute U-turn cannot be ruled out, but the signs so far are not positive. On Wednesday, Orbán’s Fidesz party submitted a resolution to parliament calling on the government not to support the start of talks on Ukraine’s accession.
A senior European official said: “I think this time nobody really knows how it will all end and the possibility of no agreement is 50/50. The behaviour and positioning of Orbán is worse than ever before and there is a risk that he is not bluffing and in fact is aiming at collective failure.
“The question is also if the EU or key member states have any sufficient leverage to change the situation. We will see how tomorrow’s meeting in Paris goes.”
There is hope that even if Orbán blocks accession in December, he will acquiesce later on, but another senior official said if the decision does not come now, it might be harder to push it through next year as attention turns to the election campaign for the European parliament. “Political windows don’t stay open for ever,” they said.
Additionally, with every passing month, amid elections in various EU member states, the memory of the first days of the war and the firm desire to help Ukraine may fade. “You have people at the table who were not there when Zelenskiy was beamed into the European Council [just after the Russian invasion last February] and said: ‘This may be the last time you will see me alive.’ This had a big psychological impact and these memories are now fading,” said the official.
Cracks in Western support pose new challenge for Ukraine
Delphine TOUITOU
Wed, 6 December 2023
President Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled a speech to the US Congress at the last minute Tuesday (Handout)
Ukraine faces growing diplomatic headwinds after its summer counter-offensive against Russia's forces faltered, with aid from vital backers in the United States and EU being increasingly called into question.
The latest sign of tensions came when President Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled at the last minute a Tuesday video address to the US Congress, which he hoped would help unblock vital further billions in funding.
No reason was named publicly for the no-show.
In Europe, eyes were on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a staunch sceptic of EU backing for Ukraine's war effort.
While the bloc was looking to open membership talks with Kyiv and is proposing a 50-billion-euro ($54 billion) financial lifeline, Orban suggested dropping these matters from an upcoming Brussels summit.
French President Emmanuel Macron has invited Orban for dinner in Paris on Thursday, hoping to bring him around.
Hopes that Ukraine could win back occupied territory in its south and east from Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces were dashed in summer.
Western allies, who had supplied more and heavier weapon systems in the preceding months, now appear to be questioning how strongly to keep up their aid.
Ukrainian leaders insist they can make advances at the front if support keeps coming.
Kyiv can point to some recent military gains on the Black Sea, allowing it to successfully export cargoes of agricultural products.
- 'About European security' -
"Even receiving continuing infusions from the West, Ukraine lacks manpower, where Russia doesn't have that problem," one senior European military officer at NATO told AFP.
Among Kyiv's soldiers sent for training with NATO troops, "these days there are older people, less experienced, who are coming forward."
"Now is the time to manage Zelensky, to reel him in from his somewhat die-hard position. No-one's saying it officially, but I think that's what's in the pipes," the NATO source added.
A French diplomatic source countered that Ukraine still has "a very low rate of mobilisation" among its population, while Russia's "statistics are being fiddled with".
While national morale may have been tested, Ukrainian troops at the front still appear determined to see the fight through.
And while the war is costly, "the Europeans won't cast Ukraine aside because they know if Putin takes Ukraine, it would be a very dangerous precedent" with risks for EU members like the Baltic states and Poland, said Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI).
That was backed up by the French diplomat.
"Backing Ukraine is about European and French security," the diplomat, asking not to be named, told a group of reporters.
Leaders must "counter the idea that one crisis pushes another aside," the diplomat added, in reference to fears in Ukraine that Israel's fight with Hamas militants could distract Europe.
- 'Don't see defeatism' -
"Everyone knows that it's a risky time, but I don't see any defeatism in Brussels or at NATO," the diplomatic source said -- while acknowledging that questions would inevitably be asked after two years of war.
Analyst Kastoueva-Jean said that while "every factor is working towards stasis" at the front, it was vital for European leaders to minimise dissent about their continuing support.
Staying the course is all the more important for Europe with US presidential elections in November 2024 where Donald Trump and his America-first programme have a real chance of returning to office.
Reassurance from outside was also needed, Kastoueva-Jean said, as "squabbling among the elites is showing up" in Kyiv, where the relationship between Zelensky and his military chief of staff Valery Zaluzhny has grown fraught.
"Could this be the end of national unity behind Zelensky, or is it just an interlude tied to the challenges at the front?" she asked.
French diplomats have been trying to convince allies that aid must be kept up as a signal to Putin that "he can't count on support wearing out" for Kyiv.
For Europe, that would mean accelerating the build-up of its defence industry and improving interoperability of equipment.
Kyiv's forces are currently using more than 200 different weapons systems pieced together from various sources, Ukraine's ambassador to NATO Natalia Galibarenko highlighted recently.
Dt-dab/tgb/sjw/jm
Delphine TOUITOU
Wed, 6 December 2023
President Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled a speech to the US Congress at the last minute Tuesday (Handout)
Ukraine faces growing diplomatic headwinds after its summer counter-offensive against Russia's forces faltered, with aid from vital backers in the United States and EU being increasingly called into question.
The latest sign of tensions came when President Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled at the last minute a Tuesday video address to the US Congress, which he hoped would help unblock vital further billions in funding.
No reason was named publicly for the no-show.
In Europe, eyes were on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a staunch sceptic of EU backing for Ukraine's war effort.
While the bloc was looking to open membership talks with Kyiv and is proposing a 50-billion-euro ($54 billion) financial lifeline, Orban suggested dropping these matters from an upcoming Brussels summit.
French President Emmanuel Macron has invited Orban for dinner in Paris on Thursday, hoping to bring him around.
Hopes that Ukraine could win back occupied territory in its south and east from Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces were dashed in summer.
Western allies, who had supplied more and heavier weapon systems in the preceding months, now appear to be questioning how strongly to keep up their aid.
Ukrainian leaders insist they can make advances at the front if support keeps coming.
Kyiv can point to some recent military gains on the Black Sea, allowing it to successfully export cargoes of agricultural products.
- 'About European security' -
"Even receiving continuing infusions from the West, Ukraine lacks manpower, where Russia doesn't have that problem," one senior European military officer at NATO told AFP.
Among Kyiv's soldiers sent for training with NATO troops, "these days there are older people, less experienced, who are coming forward."
"Now is the time to manage Zelensky, to reel him in from his somewhat die-hard position. No-one's saying it officially, but I think that's what's in the pipes," the NATO source added.
A French diplomatic source countered that Ukraine still has "a very low rate of mobilisation" among its population, while Russia's "statistics are being fiddled with".
While national morale may have been tested, Ukrainian troops at the front still appear determined to see the fight through.
And while the war is costly, "the Europeans won't cast Ukraine aside because they know if Putin takes Ukraine, it would be a very dangerous precedent" with risks for EU members like the Baltic states and Poland, said Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI).
That was backed up by the French diplomat.
"Backing Ukraine is about European and French security," the diplomat, asking not to be named, told a group of reporters.
Leaders must "counter the idea that one crisis pushes another aside," the diplomat added, in reference to fears in Ukraine that Israel's fight with Hamas militants could distract Europe.
- 'Don't see defeatism' -
"Everyone knows that it's a risky time, but I don't see any defeatism in Brussels or at NATO," the diplomatic source said -- while acknowledging that questions would inevitably be asked after two years of war.
Analyst Kastoueva-Jean said that while "every factor is working towards stasis" at the front, it was vital for European leaders to minimise dissent about their continuing support.
Staying the course is all the more important for Europe with US presidential elections in November 2024 where Donald Trump and his America-first programme have a real chance of returning to office.
Reassurance from outside was also needed, Kastoueva-Jean said, as "squabbling among the elites is showing up" in Kyiv, where the relationship between Zelensky and his military chief of staff Valery Zaluzhny has grown fraught.
"Could this be the end of national unity behind Zelensky, or is it just an interlude tied to the challenges at the front?" she asked.
French diplomats have been trying to convince allies that aid must be kept up as a signal to Putin that "he can't count on support wearing out" for Kyiv.
For Europe, that would mean accelerating the build-up of its defence industry and improving interoperability of equipment.
Kyiv's forces are currently using more than 200 different weapons systems pieced together from various sources, Ukraine's ambassador to NATO Natalia Galibarenko highlighted recently.
Dt-dab/tgb/sjw/jm
Umerov responds to Klitschko’s statements on ‘authoritarianism in Ukraine’
The New Voice of Ukraine
Wed, 6 December 2023
Rustem Umerov
In response to Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko’s recent comments on “authoritarianism in Ukraine,” Defense Minister Rustem Umerov defended President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with U.S. entertainment network Fox News on Dec. 5, praising him as “visionary and courageous for remaining in Ukraine and fighting.”
“I believe the mayor’s comments indicate the beginning of the political season,” he added, likely referring to the “pause” in Ukrainian political in-fighting that started following Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country.
Klitschko’s comments came in a recent interview with German newspaper Der Spiegel, where the mayor of Kyiv expressed concerns about Ukraine’s trajectory — warning that the nation is “moving towards authoritarianism” and risks resembling Russia.
Read also:
Defense Minister Umerov refutes rumors of attempting to sack Zaluzhnyi
Ukraine coul lose the war without US aid — Zelenskyy’s Chief-of-Staff
“At some point, we will stop distinguishing ourselves from Russia, where everything depends on the whim of one person,” Klitschko claimed.
“Currently, there is only one independent institution, but it is under tremendous pressure: local self-government.”
Read also: Servant of the People party responds to MP Bezuhla’s call for Zaluzhnyi’s resignation
During the initial months of the war, mayors played a pivotal role in managing chaos, defending cities, and aiding the military, Klitschko added.
The New Voice of Ukraine
Wed, 6 December 2023
Rustem Umerov
In response to Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko’s recent comments on “authoritarianism in Ukraine,” Defense Minister Rustem Umerov defended President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with U.S. entertainment network Fox News on Dec. 5, praising him as “visionary and courageous for remaining in Ukraine and fighting.”
“I believe the mayor’s comments indicate the beginning of the political season,” he added, likely referring to the “pause” in Ukrainian political in-fighting that started following Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country.
Klitschko’s comments came in a recent interview with German newspaper Der Spiegel, where the mayor of Kyiv expressed concerns about Ukraine’s trajectory — warning that the nation is “moving towards authoritarianism” and risks resembling Russia.
Read also:
Defense Minister Umerov refutes rumors of attempting to sack Zaluzhnyi
Ukraine coul lose the war without US aid — Zelenskyy’s Chief-of-Staff
“At some point, we will stop distinguishing ourselves from Russia, where everything depends on the whim of one person,” Klitschko claimed.
“Currently, there is only one independent institution, but it is under tremendous pressure: local self-government.”
Read also: Servant of the People party responds to MP Bezuhla’s call for Zaluzhnyi’s resignation
During the initial months of the war, mayors played a pivotal role in managing chaos, defending cities, and aiding the military, Klitschko added.
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