Utah is no longer majority Mormon, new research says

Jonathon Sharp

KTVX
Fri, December 29, 2023 

SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) — Since Utah became a state in the late 1800s, most of its residents have been members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. But according to a new study, Utah isn’t majority Mormon anymore.

A paper published this month in the Journal of Religion and Demography estimates that the percentage of Utahns who identify as members of the LDS church, otherwise known as Mormons, is about 42%.

That’s markedly lower than previous media reports citing the church’s numbers, which put the percentage of Mormons in Utah at around 60% as recently as 2020.

“We’re not trying to say that the LDS church is wrong, it’s just we’re using very different approaches to get to gather this information,” said Ryan T. Cragun, lead author on the study, who teaches sociology at the University of Tampa.

The method

To get their numbers, Cragun and his fellow researchers contracted a survey of roughly 1,900 Utahns, with quotas for age, sex and ethnicity aligning with official census data for Utah. This method is called “quota sampling.”

Michael Wood, assistant professor of sociology at Brigham Young University, who was not connected to the study, said quota sampling is commonly used in the field with accepted limitations, which he noted that Cragun and his co-authors acknowledged.

“It is a provocative study with compelling arguments,” Wood told ABC4 in an email, adding that “further research with a more robust sampling method is needed to confirm the findings.”

The Salt Lake Temple in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Douglas C. Pizac, File)

In the survey, which was conducted in the summer of 2022, the nearly 2,000 participants were asked a variety of questions, and among them was how they identified on religious grounds.

Initially, Cragun and his fellow researchers weren’t interested in religious self identification but rather how Uthans thought about science. But when the researchers got the results on religious self identification, they were surprised.

“This seemed like a newsworthy little finding for us, because we actually have data to show the state is not actually majority Mormon anymore,” Cragun said.
The church’s numbers

According to the paper, the figures released by the LDS church are not reliable for the purposes of determining the percentage of Utahns who actively identify as Mormon.

This is because, so the researchers say, the church basically counts members as anyone who’s been baptized.

“Aside from a few who are excommunicated or formally ask to have their name removed, members remain on church rolls until they die, or until their 110th birthday if their whereabouts are unknown,” the paper states.

ABC4 reached out to the church for comment on this story, but they declined.

Ryan T. Cragun, the lead author of research paper suggesting Utah is no longer majority Mormon. (credit: KTVX)

While the paper states that the church’s numbers are accurate for the number of Mormons baptized and living in Utah, they don’t account for those who leave the church and just don’t notify the Salt Lake City-based faith.

And more and more people, particularly young Mormons, are leaving the church, the researchers say.

Reasons for decline

The paper lists three main reasons why it’s likely Utah is no longer majority Mormon. Chief among them is migration, as people from other states (particularly California) have moved to Utah in great numbers over the last few decades. Most of these people are not Mormon.

The second major trend is secularization, as evidenced by the proliferation of coffee shops and breweries in Utah. In the late 1980s, LDS members would retain 95% of their children in the church, Cragun said. Today, that figure is now around 67%.

“Almost a third of people who are raised LDS today leave the religion,” he said. “That’s our current best estimate.”

The third factor is fertility, as Utah no long boasts the highest birth rate in the nation. Fewer children growing up in the church — along with more of them leaving the faith — results in Utah becoming less Mormon over time.
Will the trend continue?

Over the next decade, Cragun expects to see the percentage of Utahns who identify as Mormon continue to decline. Meanwhile, he also expects to see an increase in the percentage of Utahns who report no religious affiliation at all.

He noted that the secularization trend currently underway is self-reinforcing.

“As the percentage of LDS declines, it becomes easier for people to leave,” Cragun said.

While he expressed confidence in the figures his team published, Cragun noted that others would need to do a true probability sample in Utah to verify the findings.

Ex-Mormon Speaks Out - Why'd He Leave?

Peter Santenello

 Dec 16, 2023  MESA

Many people have left the Mormon church in recent years. 

Today we meet up with an ex-Mormon who explains to us why this is happening. 

This is the last video in our Mormon (LDS) series.